NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Sam Spade]

Special elections are always strange.  Turner should never win here, but this district has so many weird voters, and with lower turnout, ugh.  I still don't see how he wins, but who knows.  You have to expect that the place will, without an incumbent, at minimum, start reverting to its PVI, so single digits makes sense.

Is anyone really spending any money here other than the local players?  Though I don't see how national money helps in this district, of all places - better to just plaster Ed Koch supporting you all over the place given the demos of the likely voters.

It's getting to be in NY congressional races - when the machine hand-picks someone, maybe you should always bet against them. 

[Sam Spade]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/23/nyregion/heckling-marks-election-forum-for-turner-and-weprin.html?_r=1&smid=tw-nytmetro&seid=auto

I was there tonight, it was WILD for should have been a sleepy debate, the moderator constantly lost control of the crowd. Crowd constantly heckled both candidates, mostly Weprin, and then the Crowd constantly yelled to throw out the people heckling, although that never happened

Shoulda told me.  I had an invite to the debate, but decided not to go.  I figured it would get out of control, though.

[Sam Spade]

So, Weprin is up by 3-5 points then.  If I'm a Dem, I would see reason for concern, just reminding myself that probably most of the undecideds were Obama voters.  Would like to know the exact composition though (white or not is the biggie) - special elections are strange in that regard.

[Sam Spade]

So, Weprin is up by 3-5 points then.  If I'm a Dem, I would see reason for concern, just reminding myself that probably most of the undecideds were Obama voters.  Would like to know the exact composition though (white or not is the biggie) - special elections are strange in that regard.

Here's the full cross-tabs to Siena's poll earlier.

You can see that Obama ain't popular among the district's voters

I'm sure he isn't.  Though trusting Siena crosstabs is something I would never do.

What's your feeling of the race on the ground (I'm a little too far away to really know)?

[Sam Spade]

How likely is a 36% Obama approval in this district ?

I thought he won with about 60% there ... ?

Obama got 55%.

[Sam Spade]

What is it with NY machine candidates in recent special elections?

Anyway, the machine is worth more here than in most other places, but this is also one of those types of areas where if the voters are really against you, the machine won't matter much.  Follow?

[Sam Spade]

I know where Al's coming from in both of his posts.  This type of deterioration among these types of voters would spell real trouble.

Israel appears to be an significant issue in the campaign.  Also appears same-sex marriage is an issue as well (though a good bit less). (awaits tirades from all sides)

If Weprin loses, this poll certainly suggests that it's about national issues and Obama, not the candidates.

Anyway, we'll see in a couple of days.

[Sam Spade]

It would be amusing if this turned into a mypalfish situation.  Probably not, though.

[Sam Spade]

haha

[Sam Spade]

You don't know anything unless you know where the votes come from.

[Sam Spade]

Thats right, but if you look at the map there really can only be a few areas that could produce small precincts.

Care to make your guesses where numbers could be produced that small in Queens?

How do we know that they're small?  Maybe no one is showing up here.

[Sam Spade]

NY1's coverage of this one sucks.  Does anyone on these programs pay attention to details?

[Sam Spade]

This one and two precincts at a time thing is highly annoying.

[Sam Spade]

15 precincts and the politician that looks like a 70's porn star takes the lead!

Too early to tell, but if all Weprin can do is break even in Queens, the Brooklyn part of the district will sink him.  It is much more Republican-friendly than the Queens part.

Yep.  Weprin has to get his margin from Queens.

[Sam Spade]

Either there's a lot of liberal precincts outstanding in Queens, or this one is over, and it may not even be close.

[Sam Spade]

Weprin pushes it back to 50-50 in Queens with about a third in.  Still almost nothing from Brooklyn.

[Sam Spade]

I just want one of Al's pretty maps when we get ED numbers.  NYC races are always fascinating.

[Sam Spade]

I have to laugh because when AP called the race, NY1 was told Weprin would come out to concede.  Instead, five minutes later, he walked out, said "this race is not over yet because there are still many votes left" and made a quick beeline for the door.  I wish I had that video.  It was really funny.

[Sam Spade]

PPP stated in their poll that Democrats were not turning out in NV-2. Presidential year turn out will be different.

Why is it so hard for logic to get through to some people?

Oh, turnout will always be different (and much more predictable) come election time.

However, their poll in NV-2 was a mile off, so I wouldn't be reading too much into it.

[Sam Spade]

I have to laugh because when AP called the race, NY1 was told Weprin would come out to concede.  Instead, five minutes later, he walked out, said "this race is not over yet because there are still many votes left" and made a quick beeline for the door.  I wish I had that video.  It was really funny.

Is he an ahole?

I've never liked him, personally, but it was not a good showing.

I know that Lunar can back me up - he saw this too.

[Sam Spade]

I'm sitting here at 1am just outta work with some Taco Bell®  and am very pleased to see America continue a slow but sure push in a conservative direction.

I look forward to crying faces in Grant Park next fall, only this time, during a concession speech.

Thanks for the daily update, Naso!

[Sam Spade]

I wouldn't read too much into any poll, but a wise sage would probably look at this election and say that movement among lower-income Catholics was probably how Turner won it.

[Sam Spade]

Surveys like that tend not to be worth the paper they're printed on, though that particular pattern is obviously true. To repeat, the cause for concern isn't anything specific to Jewish voters in the district.

Yup. Obama really needs to worry about lower middle class and working class white Catholics more. He's being killed there at the moment. And there are a lot more of them of course across the fruited plain. In the handful of precincts in this CD in that category, Welprin was probably slaughtered. It will be interesting to see the precinct by precinct results, since due to my mapping I think I now know the CD quite well.

Great minds think alike?

[Sam Spade]

Story of the day relayed to me by someone else:

Person in cab with Russian cab driver, between 25-30, from Moscow.  Lived in US most of his life.  Conversation turns to NY-9 congressional race and cab driver says, "I'm so happy about the victory.  I worked for his campaign."

Person asks, "was it about Israel and Obama?"  Cab driver goes, "No, I think Obama definitely supports Israel and their interests.  I couldn't support Weprin because was with the f****ts."