NY-09, Special Election Thread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama's numbers are a bit of an underperformance too, there are a lot of older Jews and "ethnic" voters weren't too big on him. Kerry got 56%. Also it has some haredi who strongly supported McCain but mostly support Democrats on the local level.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is basically the textbook definition of a fool's gold seat. It's designed to be very polarized. And do the GOP hold any 56% Kerry seats even after 2010? I can't think of any.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is basically the textbook definition of a fool's gold seat. It's designed to be very polarized. And do the GOP hold any 56% Kerry seats even after 2010? I can't think of any.

Well, they do hold a handful of 55% Obama districts, which is the problem here.  This is one of the few districts Obama did worse than Kerry in.

Well I doubt the Democratic nominee will be black, so that's pretty moot. Also they hold a grand total of one D+5 seat (as this is), and that's a seat in Illinois so the PVI is no doubt inflated unlike how it's deflated here (IL-10).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why not just get someone who's only interested in being a seat warmer who'll then have a foot in the door to a high-paying lobbyist position after a year and a half?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ah, the woman who beat Emanuel Celler. So she's still around.

Would be a good candidate in the sense that she wouldn't mind being a seatwarmer.

I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama. As Johnny has noted, the GOP need someone who can run down the margins in Queens, and who do they have?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't think the Orthodox are a big deal, they voted almost 100% for McCain anyway and he still lost the seat by a wide margin despite plenty of other votes not being fond of Obama.

Michael Bloomberg won 70% of the vote in NY-9.  It's a competitive seat, potentially.

Orthodox voters break 80-20 or 90-10 instead of 55-45, so they can be the most influential swing voters sometimes

That's like saying every seat in Oklahoma is potentially competitive because Brad Henry won them all in 2006.

The point about Orthodox is exactly what I was saying. McCain already won them in the 90s, and Obama still carried the seat by 13 points despite being disliked by plenty of other voters in the district.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As long as the Democrats don't nominate a black (are there any such potential candidates in that district anyway?) they should be fine.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2010/10/bob-turner-poll-says-bob-turne.html

lulz

Bob Turner's going to be the GOP nominee, I guarantee it.

Okay, this race might not be competitive after all.

There was never any real reason to expect it to be. How the hell are the Republicans going to take this seat after losing NY-26? That'd be like the Democratic nominee winning Georgia but losing Michigan.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

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It's so cute when people feign ignorance of what's going on in that book.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So would it be a sin for a Mormon or Muslim to vote to do something like loosen restrictions on alcohol sales?

That's easily one of my favorite StarTrib editorial cartoons ever by the way, which is why I still remember it easily 8 years after publication.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll try to be the optimist here, just because I'll be the only one with bragging rights if I'm right:

Weprin 50%
Turner 49%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow I never knew Lief had that much political influence! There is no question that thousands of Jews will note vote for Obama because of the postings of a Democratic college student on an internet message board. Amazing how much influence the guy has now.