NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Torie]

US Corporations have a tax incentive not to repatriate profits from foreign subsidiaries if the tax rate of the foreign corporation in its host country is less than in the US. That's it. So what are we arguing about?

[Torie]

Better still would be to lower the corporate tax rate in the US, so that for most overseas profits, there is no incentive not to repatriate because the tax rates are comparable across the major industrial nations. End of story.

[Torie]

I guess Weprin is not the first fat white man who can't dance, but I mean - really now.  Viewer discretion advised.

[Torie]

http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/in-race-for-weiners-seat-75000-from-foes-of-same-sex-marriage/

anyone still think that I'm completely wrong about Weprin loosing this because of marriage redefinition.

losing

[Torie]

What is it with NY machine candidates in recent special elections?

Anyway, the machine is worth more here than in most other places, but this is also one of those types of areas where if the voters are really against you, the machine won't matter much.  Follow?

Without hearing or watching Waprin, I just have this instinct that he is a nebbish. If so, and he can't hide it well enough, he's done.

[Torie]

http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/in-race-for-weiners-seat-75000-from-foes-of-same-sex-marriage/

anyone still think that I'm completely wrong about Weprin loosing this because of marriage redefinition.

I suspect it just counts at the margins. It's a protest vote. These folks feel as ignored as hell. They feel like losers and don't like it. Being a loser in the Big Apple is hell.

[Torie]

Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

When you carve out the minority seats, isn't there an Anglo seat area left to fill in Brooklyn/Queens?  And if Turner wins, why would the Pubbies agree to lose two of their guys?  Wouldn't they  be better off just having the courts draw the lines?  The issue is what kind of Anglo seat would be naturally drawn in the area if done by someone non partisan holding the mouse?

To my pea brain, if we have an upset here, that upsets the redistricting apple cart.  Moreover, depending on the lines, Turner if he wins now might have some potential to hold the seat for some time.

[Torie]

Can redistricting please get rid of Charlie Rangel already? I don't think it's fair necessarily for Hochul, and whoever wins the 9th district to get eliminated seeing that there are corrupt fossils in the NY delegation that should be thrown out instead.

VRA so not really.

Um, if they considered eliminating Yvette Clarke's seat, why can't they eliminate Rangel's? Geographic reasons?

No.  Geography defines Rangel's CD. It can't go anywhere, because it is boxed in by whites and Hispanics and rivers and Central Park. It's only about 30% black anyway. 

[Torie]

This "Dov Hikind" person seems like a real piece of work.

I think he is a survivor of the concentration camps in Germany.  Maybe I have that mixed up, but he is really hard wired.

[Torie]

This "Dov Hikind" person seems like a real piece of work.

I think he is a survivor of the concentration camps in Germany.  Maybe I have that mixed up, but he is really hard wired.

He was born in 1950, so that seems... unlikely. 

Well back to the drawing board then. I should look up his bio. Isn't he a Dem assemblyman who votes often with the GOP?

[Torie]

It is just so special that Weiner quit right before redistricting. His CD is now going to live on,  and be way out of reach of the Dems.  Mr. Weiner had an impact on history which will have legs. Isn't that special? 

[Torie]

my first prediction on this forum Weprin will lose this race mostly because of his redefinition of marriage support.

Careful you don't go throwing up on yourself with all that spinning you're doing there.

are they also spinning this? (or are some apologies in order)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/special-elections-reveal-a-fickle-electorate/2011/09/12/gIQAFbHNNK_blog.html

(Democrats are already blaming New York Democratic nominee David Weprin’s vote for same-sex marriage from when he was in the state Assembly for alienating Jewish voters.)

Actually the way I read the article the leitmotif was the Dem national malaise and erosion, and that the Dems want to spin that macro away with the micro of blaming it all on Welprin's gay marriage thing.  While you may be right that the gay thing was the straw that broke Welprin's back (I have no idea either way), your link actually undermines your case. You need to find stuff that spins it your way - not the opposite, if you are adducing it as evidentially support for your point of view. 

[Torie]

13 precincts in (all Queens) 51-48 Turner

Isn't the third of the CD in Brooklyn more Pubbie than the Queens portion in general?

[Torie]

This race already looks over. I am going to put up a couple of maps to make sure.

[Torie]

Yes, Turner has won. Queens has only about 25 precincts that McCain carried, and the Brooklyn portion is very Pubbie. It's totally over. And Turner will end up with a much more GOP district next time, because thanks to the VRA, most of it will be in Brooklyn. Yes Brooklyn. Trust me. . Weiner really F the Dems doing what he did at redistricting time. It should be at least a 10% margin, maybe more. It's a blowout. I wonder what repercussions it will have?

[Torie]

McCain did pretty well in Forest Hills actually, losing by only a relatively modest margin. I suspect Turner will carry Forest Hills. There are much more Dem parts of Queens in the CD. And I predict Forest Hills will be in the new CD as well, one of the few parts of Queens that will, along with the bits of Queens due south.

[Torie]

Forest Hills is the most populated piece of Queens in the district right?

I mean Welprin wasn't seriously hoping that Kew Gardens and Fresh Meadows to carry him was he??

Do those two areas even add up to the population of Forest Hills?

Forest Hills is maybe about 15% of the district in Queens - at most. So that means it may be about 10% of the total CD. Again there are much more Dem parts of Queens in the CD than Forest Hills - much more.

[Torie]

I think if Weprin can win the remainder of Queens by 60-40, he can pull out a squeaker of a win.

No. Not unless the most Dem parts of Brooklyn have not reported at all, and the most GOP parts of Queens are all in. That strikes me as highly doubtful.

[Torie]

Over two hundred precincts in in Queens and the gap is narrowing there. Is this one finished yet?

It was finished  after about 20 precincts came in, and once I looked at my mappies actually, which I posted. It's obvious.

[Torie]

It's dangerous to over-analyse this sort of thing (and even more dangerous to project forward too far ahead wrt to the seat itself), but I think it's fair to say that this is not a good sign for Obama. Special factors can be reeled out to explain away a large part of it, I suppose (certainly the circumstances and the candidate didn't help), but, fundamentally, the Democratic Party should not loose immigrant-heavy districts in New York City (much as the contemporary Republican Party should not have lost certain districts in the Deep South a few years ago). If such a thing happens, panic is absolutely the wrong response (it is always the wrong response), what ought to happen is a careful reassessment of certain things...

That might look a little stream of consciousness, but consider the time out here by the banks of the Menai.

This is what I posted on the NV-02 thread: "The voters wanted to send Obama a message. Both CD's were national election statements. The Dems lost everything but the Obama base. Almost all the swing voters went GOP - and then some. That sometimes happens in special elections."

[Torie]

Now the Democrats can start planning how they are going to dismantle this seat. I will not be hard to totally vaporize it.

And I won't even get into why it makes zero sense to draw conclusions about national trends from special election results in House seats.

It's not like this is even a district full of liberal Democrats, it's mostly very conservative religious voters. What did the GOP really gain here?

The Courts and the Pubbies are not going to allow eliminating  this seat. The Courts will eliminate the Carolyn McCarthy seat. It's quite obvious to me. Turner will inherit  a GOP bastion. It will be mostly in Brooklyn. He was just there at the right time. He's damn lucky.

[Torie]

Clark County: 58% to 39% OHHHHHHH!

You know I was totally not planning on saying any cliche statements on the nation here, but WOW! How can you not with numbers like that. I think its safe to say that all of the campaign committees and 501(c)4s are debating writing off Nevada this year. Those kind of numbers beg the question...are we just going to throw money down the toilet in a state like that?

Lets just call a spade and a spade here, if the economy doesn't turn around talk of size able Dem gains in the house is bat sh*t crazy talk and talk of Obama having any advantage going into 2012 will get you kicked to the kiddy table.

The Clark County parts of NV-02 are very Pubbie. So I would not jack off on that alone. Washoe numbers are more interesting. It is a swingy county. It's final numbers should be very interesting.

[Torie]

OK, thanks Wonk. I was relying on something posted by someone a few days ago, that the NV-02 sliver of Clark was very GOP. Apparently the chap was in error.

[Torie]

I have to laugh because when AP called the race, NY1 was told Weprin would come out to concede.  Instead, five minutes later, he walked out, said "this race is not over yet because there are still many votes left" and made a quick beeline for the door.  I wish I had that video.  It was really funny.

Is he an ahole?

[Torie]

I really think some in this thread at two steps away from declaring that Perry will win the state of New York by double digits. And the sad thing is, they'll actually fully believe that just based off of one House race in a very unique district with heavy religious factors.

Neither of these special election results say a thing about next year, not one single thing.

No one has been foolish enough to make that claim yet. Calm down. The Presidency is still very much in play.