NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Tender Branson]

How likely is a 36% Obama approval in this district ?

I thought he won with about 60% there ... ?

[Tender Branson]

Wow, Weprin is Coakley 2.0 on steroids:

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/culture/2011/09/3282998/three-days-911-dccc-runs-bob-turner-rich-ad-showing-plane-buzzing-ma

[Tender Branson]

Let's have a moment of silence in memory of the dick that made this special election possible.


Thank you.


In all seriousness, I'm still not sold that we'll win this.

I´m rather sold:

A) The Democratic incumbent had a sex scandal and has now sub-10% approvals.

B) The Democratic replacement candidate thinks the current debt is about 1/4 of what it really is.

C) The DCCC cuts an ad involving a plane flying above the Manhattan skyline on the 10-year anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

D) Probably other retarded things I cannot recall now, because I have only decided to follow this race as of yesterday.

[Tender Branson]

Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

incorrect, I think -- this district was never thought to be on the chopping block before Weiner had his tweetscandal

But after Weiner had his tweetscandal, conventional wisdom was that whatever Democrat won the NY-09 special election would be out of a job come January 2013.  

If Turner wins, I think the redistricting calculations become more complicated, not less.  It's possible Turner and an Upstate Democrat's seat get axed (probably Hochul, but since she won a R+6 district, it's hard to see how it's even possible to make the seat more Republican).  Or Turner takes over more Republican-friendly territory in Brooklyn (it is possible without hurting the Staten Island seat, which is almost at ideal population in its current lines because Nadler's NY-08 juts into white parts of Brooklyn) and Ackerman loses his seat or faces off against Crowley while a Republican loses an Upstate seat.  If Turner wins, the redistricting fight should be interesting.

By the way, Weprin won't be able to vote for himself.  He doesn't live in NY-09.

If he doesn't live there, how can he run there ?

Aren't you required to live in the district that you are running in ?

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for NY-09:

54.19% Turner (R)
45.24% Weprim (D)
  0.57% Others

[Tender Branson]

Didn't Gore get close to 70% in this district ?

I think NY-09 is a "special case" this year. People want to send a message after the sex scandal of Weiner and the district itself is trending away from the Democrats on the Presidential level. Considering that Obama got only 55% there and Gore almost 70%, it's not really so out of line that Obama might be in a tight battle with Romney or Perry in the district. Obama is also not really the most Pro-Israel candidate and that certainly isn't playing well with the large right-wing Jews in the district. Add to that a moderately popular Republican candidate, a clueless Democrat with no campaign skills and a DCCC with no campaign skills and you get a recipe for disaster tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

Is Turner actually popular though? I thought I remember some people here saying that this race was over for the GOP when that City Councilman passed on running and Turner got the nomination. I also thought that Turner was pretty damn conservative.

PPP says yes:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Turner?

Favorable........................................................ 45%
Unfavorable .................................................... 30%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of David Weprin?

Favorable........................................................ 39%
Unfavorable .................................................... 36%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NY9_9111118.pdf

Siena also:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Turner?

Favorable........................................................ 48%
Unfavorable .................................................... 34%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of David Weprin?

Favorable........................................................ 41%
Unfavorable .................................................... 41%

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD90911%20Crosstabs.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Didn't Gore get close to 70% in this district ?

Yep, for two reasons.

*big picture of Joe Lieberman*

*big picture of W*

It still trended away, even without this factor:

2000: Gore 48%, NY-09: 67% Gore (+19)
2004: Kerry 48%, NY-09: 56% Kerry (+8)
2008: Obama 53%, NY-09: 55% Obama (+2)

So, the Lieberman factor probably added +5 to Gore in the district.

If the trend continues (-6 every cycle), Obama's 2012 percentage in NY-09 should be about 4% less than his national result. Considering Obama is currently in a tie with Romney and Perry nationally at about 47% each, Obama should have about 43% against them in NY-09.

Which is about what PPP said.

[Tender Branson]

Results should be here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html

[Tender Branson]

Weprin leads by 7, 23% reporting.  New York counts pretty fast.

Is this a joke or where did you get the numbers from ?

[Tender Branson]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


He left off the question mark and everything afterwards. I found the WI page from august and copy and pasted it on.

Strange. It worked well for me, only with the .html link.

But maybe the link is broken for others when you don't post the full one ...

Thx anyway for posting the full link again.

[Tender Branson]

Apperently, there are dead people voting in the district:

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/09/dead-voters-in-ny-9-turner-obtains-order-sealing-paper-ballots/

[Tender Branson]

I guess we'll get results from Nevada earlier than those from NY today ...

[Tender Branson]

NV-02 isn't counting much faster in case you wanna know ...

Half an hour now the polls are closed and they haven't even counted the early vote yet.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for NY-09:

54.19% Turner (R)
45.24% Weprim (D)
  0.57% Others

I'm happy with that so far ...

[Tender Branson]

The PPP bashing is beyond old, it's really not even worth responded to and should be ignored.

PPP already regrets having asked about this Socialist Workers Party dude.

I could have told them before that he won't get 4% ...

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[Tender Branson]

A new motto for the NY-09 Democrats:

"Yesterday we stumbled across Anthony's weiner, now on to a brighter future and victory in 2012 !"

[Tender Branson]