NY-09, Special Election Thread

[minionofmidas]

Is there a chance Weiner could face a serious primary challenge.

Well, yes - by Gary Ackerman. Merging the two seats is pretty much the rational thing to do once it's agreed that all the nonwhite seats need to stay.

[minionofmidas]

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[/quote]There is also more to Orthodox Jewry than the people in traditional dress who vote as a bloc. Not every Jew who doesn't is some Secular Jewish liberal.

Just wanted to put that out there.

[minionofmidas]

What is it with NY machine candidates in recent special elections?

Anyway, the machine is worth more here than in most other places, but this is also one of those types of areas where if the voters are really against you, the machine won't matter much.  Follow?

...because the machine are voters too. And they can turn out their folks to vote against you instead of for you, if the "normal" voters share their grievance.

[minionofmidas]

Can we rule out that NY Jew isn't a new edition of Coburn Fan? Just asking.

?
I do like Tom Coburn if that's what you meant

Nah, he meant some past poster.

[minionofmidas]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=3403;sa=showPosts for a sample of the posts involved.

Why the socks?

(...)

The views expressed by Coburn, the imbecile, and KTC, the rather more intelligent sock, are accurate portrayals of the arguments, conversations and communications I still receive on a regular basis, from some of these folks.  I went to church with these people for many decades. I went to college with no small number of them.  More than a few members of my family could easily pass for KTC and, at least one, for Coburn.

[minionofmidas]

Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

[minionofmidas]

Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

When you carve out the minority seats, isn't there an Anglo seat area left to fill in Brooklyn/Queens?  

Not really. Depending how you draw it, you might get it to where it's becoming arguable that the 5th and not the 9th is gone, but that's about it.

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No - if they do that, they still lose two of their guys, and all their remaining incumbents (and the Dems, of course. And the Dems) are less safe.

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No. You cannot draw a "normally" Republican district here. The votes just aren't there. You can theoretically draw one elsewhere that has some slight overlap, but only if you are ready to run major risks with the VRA with one of the Brooklyn Black seats.
Of course, maybe he can somehow build some kind of personal vote machine and stay in Congress for some time, especially should Ackerman retire, but then I'd have said that about Djou too.

Obviously, this still affects redistricting. R's now have much better arguments for demanding a D head upstate.

[minionofmidas]

the districts in NY look really weird is not just because of the voting rights act but because of the fact that they gerrymandered the jewish areas in southern Brooklyn to an extent that surpasses the deep south during Jimmy Crow.  Right now the Contiguous Orthodox Jewish areas in Brooklyn (I'm defining this as EDs that are over 50% Orthodox) have 6 congressional districts (8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th (though I admit this is only a very small portion in this ED), 13th) and the Jewish neighborhood of Flatbush now has 5 Congressional districts (I looked around the country and I couldn't find any other neighborhood that even has 3 Congressional districts)

The 12th? Seriously?
Otherwise, of course, yeah they're carved up something ridic. The Dem-voting White areas in Brooklyn are no better, of course.

Redistricting can actually get rid of Charlie Rangel, btw - not sure they'll do it, but the logical thing for this district to do is cross the Harlem River and become even more of a Hispanic district with Black influence than it is already (what would be excised would be the White parts).

[minionofmidas]

Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

incorrect, I think -- this district was never thought to be on the chopping block before Weiner had his tweetscandal

That's only because Weiner was considered too important to be eliminated. The whole point of the debate back then was pretty much how to avoid having to eliminate him.

[minionofmidas]

I answered that because this type of legislation is one of the biggest fronts to god possible.
 (I can give many other reasons like kicking people out of their jobs as Town Clerks for not betraying their religion)

It's not betraying anybody's religion to sign civil documents unless they lead to something objectively sinful happening. Discrimination on the basis of sex or gender is an example of something that's objectively sinful. It was sinful then and it is sinful now. The only differences are the information that we now have, and the material conditions that allow us to have it.

"Objectively sinful"? Wtf is that even supposed to mean? "Sinful" pretty much means "a sin according to the tradition of religion x [as defined by context, but usually Christian or some Christian tradition], irrespective of what the law or the rather minimal rules of "absolute morality" have to say on the subject".