NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

lol, homosexual marriage

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Goddamnit, am I really going to have to make a donation to a Democrat here?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

That's not what the tweet said, just for honesty reasons, I'll post it.  It did not mention any numbers or even who was up

http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/111985726626873344

My pretty straight forward take on the first night of our NY-9 poll: Dems in BIG trouble. It deserves the caps.

That is the actually tweet, not what was posted above.

A close race would be "trouble." They say "BIG trouble," which indicates to me that the Republican is up, and by the emphasis, possibly beyond the margin of error.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/09/08/democrats_in_trouble_in_ny-9.html

If the Dems actually lose this seat, that will really be something. I remain skeptical for now.

Well, Scott Brown won a special in Massachusetts, which is D+12. This seat is only D+5.

It's not like it'd be an earthquake sign of doom for Democrats. I'd take it as a one-off, like the other special elections in New York where the GOPers were the ones falling off a cliff.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/CD90911%20Crosstabs.pdf
many Jews who say Israel is the main reason for there vote, are really saying marriage redefinition but it wasn't a listed choice (and other doesn't accomplish anything, but voting for your second reason does) (look at 90% of the Orthodox Jews who are voting for Turner based on Israel also say in the same statement the marriage but they are to afraid to mention it straight up)
In addition the 6% of jews who say other I can almost guarantee that there biggest issue was marriage redefinition.

I am very concerned for you and the level at which you seem to obsess over gays getting married. Perhaps you could use a vacation?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Welp, the Democrats really screwed this one up, I guess it was inevitable that they'd be the ones to royally mess up a special election in New York for once.

This isn't over yet.  Weprin and the DCCC's commercials are in heavy rotation in the NYC TV market.  I have yet to see a Turner ad.  If Weprin scares enough seniors with his Turner wants to cut your social security schtick, he might pull it out.  And there's the little issue of the Democrats having a good political machine, unlike the Republicans.

Turner doesn't have the cash for those ads.. but the DCCC's ads would have been best to define Turner early on, instead of at the last second

Same problem Democrats had with Scott Brown. They didn't do anything to define him until it was way too late to do so.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=27pzclece3k#!


Hikind endorses Turner.

This video of course shows why.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uglr9NVU3LA

As the Torah says about gay marriage:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Oh, God, I didn't realize it was this bad:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

When someone has to trot out that ol' line ... man

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

PPP is going to release their poll in about an hour.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/277046/marriage-and-remarkable-turner-surprise-kathryn-jean-lopez

http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/General+News/103093/YWN-MAILBAG%3A-Only-A-Few-Hours-Left-For-NY-9.html

anyone still think this has nothing to do with marriage.

yes

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

My friends in NY 09 (Kew Gardens and Forest Hills) tell me that Weprin people are out in full force at every precinct...like a dozen people at each precinct.

Could Weprin pull it off?

no

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I say Weprin 51.5%, Turner 47%, just to deny BRTD his bragging rights in case Weprin wins.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The Van Der Blubb News Network is reporting that Turner just conceded.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Yeah, I don't think there's any way to argue with a straight face that Weprin has a shot in hell left.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Looks like we're stalled at 54% to 46%, with 88% reporting. G'night!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Lord knows I got those.