NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Brittain33]

but you gotta admit its funny how you guys are essentially using the GOP tactics of 2009 with healthcare.

I thought it was rather shocking--well beyond funny--that Republicans used those tactics so successfully in 2010 and then thought it was a good idea to pass a bill with no chance of passage that opened them up to the same attacks thrown back at them.

[Brittain33]

Guys, this has become a serious race. Even partisan Democrats I've talked to close to the Weprin campaign think that this could easily end up within 5%.

Oy. What do they think the turnout is going to be? Why would the Dem be doing so poorly--is it because Weprin isn't taking the race seriously, as a placeholder, or because of macro issues?

This district won't exist after 2012 anyway and one additional Republican would be an embarrassment, but not actually affect the outcome of votes in Congress. Of course the PR value would be poor but does that really matter that much at this point in time, especially given the bizarre circumstances?

[Brittain33]

Kathy Hochul's district is R+6, this district is D+5, and that doesn't even represent the trendlines which had Obama improving compared to Kerry in NY-26 but declining in NY-9

I'm not reading your implication here.

[Brittain33]

Also, you know, it's very possible to be raised going to Hebrew School, to be able to read Hebrew and understand the tenets of the Jewish faith, and then find there is no place for you in it. Just be glad you have never had to confront the issue of your own sexual orientation being in conflict with what your teachers said... And think twice before patting yourself on the back for not understanding this conflict.

[Brittain33]

Can we rule out that NY Jew isn't a new edition of Coburn Fan? Just asking.

[Brittain33]

Was he born in a DP camp maybe?

[Brittain33]

That's not fair, he has two notes: marriage and gerrymandering.

[Brittain33]

Didn't Gore get close to 70% in this district ?

Yep, for two reasons.

[Brittain33]

If the trend continues (-6 every cycle),

Would you extrapolate a trend line from two data points (the change from 2000 to 2004, and from 2004 to 2008)?

Here's how I see it:

2000: Dems way overperform because Lieberman is on the ticket and Bush is a terrible candidate for the NYC metro area.
2004: Absence of Lieberman causes regression to the mean for here, also people vote more R over 9/11 and Iraq war
2008: Obama only treads water here while doing better elsewhere because he does badly among olds and old Jewish Dems in particular (see FL-22 as well)
2011: Continues to crater among old people and Jewish Dems.

[Brittain33]

Yeah, I'm not sure I'm seeing the path whereby Republicans are allowed to play hardball. If it goes to the courts, this district is likely going to be changed dramatically.

[Brittain33]

Noach Dear? Oh lord.

[Brittain33]

This one leaps past NY-13 to become the most densely populated district represented by a Republican.

[Brittain33]

Let's not pretend that Orthodox Jews "believing Obama is anti-Semitic" isn't just a projection and proactive defense of their own issues with Obama's ethnic and racial background.