NY-09, Special Election Thread

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The legislature could just expand Serrano's district into Harlem and eliminate Rangel that way.

Yeah, putting blacks and Hispanics together will totally comply with the VRA, and not piss anybody off at all.

There aren't enough blacks there for there to be a black district.

They should make it a Hispanic vs Black in the primary district. It makes the most sense. I don't see why you would add it in with the wealthy white areas of Manhattan.

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I believe Rangel's district has to at least give somewhat of an opportunity for black voters to elect a candidate of their choice. That was part of what happened in California redistricting, districts with high numbers of black voters were drawn, not 50%, but still enough for those voters to have a choice.

I just drew a 36% VAP Black and 46% VAP Hispanic district. I excluded Washington Heights from the district and added in mixed areas of Bronx. I would think considering citizenship (might be less of a factor here than in LA) and turnout, it would be a fair fight in the primary.

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Turner 50
Weprin 48

Pulled the numbers completely out my ass. I nailed the special election in CA even though I wasn't anywhere close to there for a year or two, so why not in NYC?

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I don't know where the red avatars are, but the blue avatars are getting pretty douchey.

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Were the red avatars banned tonight? I haven't seen many of them around these parts.

No, just demoralized for the night.

You guys have had some really rough few months. Time for a beer??

No, it's time to elect Perry and get rid of Medicare and Social Security. Then let the fun begin!

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Were the red avatars banned tonight? I haven't seen many of them around these parts.

No, just demoralized for the night.

You guys have had some really rough few months. Time for a beer??

I don't really care about NY-09; it was NV-02 that really has me disappointed.

Thanks, but I don't drink! lol

Yeah, it's NV-2 that is the bigger story imho. Although there is still a lot to come in over there.

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Oh, yeah. Losing safe seats in this way sucks. Not the end of the world though, even if it might briefly feel that way.

Well, Perry will be the next President. Whether that is the end of the world or not, I will leave it up to you. Of course if people think this is some sort of realignment (as opposed to voters pissed at everyone, mainly at the guys in charge currently).........

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O-shit.

Haha, almost forgot how annoying you were. Congrats, Phil.

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Maybe Mandoglove can be our next president. Don't stop believing Phil!!!

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Clark County: 58% to 39% OHHHHHHH!

You know I was totally not planning on saying any cliche statements on the nation here, but WOW! How can you not with numbers like that. I think its safe to say that all of the campaign committees and 501(c)4s are debating writing off Nevada this year. Those kind of numbers beg the question...are we just going to throw money down the toilet in a state like that?

Lets just call a spade and a spade here, if the economy doesn't turn around talk of size able Dem gains in the house is bat sh*t crazy talk and talk of Obama having any advantage going into 2012 will get you kicked to the kiddy table.

Keep in mind that piece of Clark in NV-02 is heavily Republican rural and exurban voters.

According to news reports I read before the race started they said the exact opposite.

The media doesn't know sh**t. Washoe is the one to watch. Those numbers predict the state.

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Courtesy of the Politico

"While the 2nd District is largely rural, it includes a sliver of blue Clark County that makes up about 7 percent of the district, including parts of Henderson and North Las Vegas. Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 5 points in this part of the district, an area where Democrats need high turnout from their base to prevail in next year’s presidential race, Senate race and a competitive Las Vegas-area House race.

If Marshall loses — or even underperforms — in Clark County, it could be a bad omen for Democrats like Obama, Senate candidate Shelley Berkley and numerous hopefuls eyeing runs in Las Vegas-area seats.

It could prove especially troubling because neither campaign has advertised in the more expensive Las Vegas media market that covers Clark County, so an Amodei win there either means that Republicans are disproportionately motivated to turn out or that Democrats are crossing party lines to vote for him — either is bad news for Democrats."



Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63288_Page2.html#ixzz1XtfqUTwC

Apparently Politico doesn't know where North Las Vegas is. If the district actually did contain North Las Vegas, and these were the results, it would be big, big trouble (like the Dems getting under 40% nationally). In other news, Marshall is losing Washoe by 10 points, and by extension the Democrats the state.

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Is it just me or are the ones that want sh^t crazy posts all over this thread all Dems. There may be only like 4 of them, but they are all Dems.

I appreciate the other 90% of D's and I's on here that do write sane posts.

Hopefully that wasn't directed at me. Just go take a look at the map of NV-2 in Clark County. It doesn't come close to the urban core of Las Vegas, or the Democratic stronghold of North Las Vegas. I stand by my statement, Politico doesn't know what it's talking about. Also look at the result out of Carson City. That's where you should be looking, where the people in the district actually live.

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Get your sh*t straight. You could make an argument for that in Brooklyn, you absolutely cannot write off the piss poor performance in Queens on the Israel issue. That is Obama through and through right there.

You can leave the cursing out if you are posting to me, thank you very much. There are lots of conservative, religious Democrats all over the district, they are the ones who showed up. The district trended Republican last time around and it's not exactly a bellwether for anything. I don't think you should use it to predict presidential results.

Oh, come on. This is horrible news for the Dems. Deal with it.

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Is it just me or are the ones that want sh^t crazy posts all over this thread all Dems. There may be only like 4 of them, but they are all Dems.

I appreciate the other 90% of D's and I's on here that do write sane posts.

Hopefully that wasn't directed at me. Just go take a look at the map of NV-2 in Clark County. It doesn't come close to the urban core of Las Vegas, or the Democratic stronghold of North Las Vegas. I stand by my statement, Politico doesn't know what it's talking about.

I never mapped NV, so I for one can't opine on this. But it would seem that the Dem CD in Vegas would have sucked up most of the most Dem precincts, and then we have a second CD which sucked up the marginal ones, which leaves  ... ?

Just look here. The district contains rural areas, Nellis AFB, and some rich looking suburbia to the south of town.
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd

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Oh, come on. This is horrible news for the Dems. Deal with it.

That is your opinion. I just don't think you should take a special election for a House seat and turn it into a narrative about the Presidential election, it doesn't work when either side does it. You can't expect everyone to subscribe to the same opinion.

Have you been following the Nevada election? I wonder how the Dems will do in Solano County next year. If Garamendi runs in that seat, which also contains Yuba and Sutter Counties, he could be in trouble.

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By the way looking at the Nevada map, CD 2 definitely does include a decent portion of North Las Vegas and its pretty safe to say that most of the 6,000 votes came from part of Clark county since the southern part is very rural. I mean there is like one road throughout that part and a couple very tiny towns.

That was North Las Vegas they just got creamed in.

Ok, mapped things out on DRA. The district contains about 86,000 residents in Clark County. Of them only 27,000 live in North Las Vegas, excluding Nellis AFB (which doesn't have that many people anyways). What we seemed to miss was the city of Mesquite. That adds another 25,000 odd residents. And it's on the Utah border. Also those precincts in the south do have a lot of people, and those are relatively wealthy areas and they vote Republican. About 40,000 odd people there. The North Las Vegas portion is about 50% Hispanic, wheareas the district overall within Clark County is only 27% Hispanic. In a special election I really wonder how many people showed up. The rich areas to the south I am sure showed up, and Mesquite seems like it would be teabagger central. Unless we have precinct results, we can't tell whether there was a catastrophic swing in North Las Vegas or not. And considering how few people actually voted in Clark, and the fact that no one advertised there, it would be safer to look at the populated areas of northern Nevada. Carson City results are very interesting to me.

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By the way looking at the Nevada map, CD 2 definitely does include a decent portion of North Las Vegas and its pretty safe to say that most of the 6,000 votes came from part of Clark county since the southern part is very rural. I mean there is like one road throughout that part and a couple very tiny towns.

That was North Las Vegas they just got creamed in.

Ok, mapped things out on DRA. The district contains about 86,000 residents in Clark County. Of them only 27,000 live in North Las Vegas, excluding Nellis AFB (which doesn't have that many people anyways). What we seemed to miss was the city of Mesquite. That adds another 25,000 odd residents. And it's on the Utah border. Also those precincts in the south do have a lot of people, and those are relatively wealthy areas and they vote Republican. About 40,000 odd people there. The North Las Vegas portion is about 50% Hispanic, wheareas the district overall within Clark County is only 27% Hispanic. In a special election I really wonder how many people showed up. The rich areas to the south I am sure showed up, and Mesquite seems like it would be teabagger central. Unless we have precinct results, we can't tell whether there was a catastrophic swing in North Las Vegas or not. And considering how few people actually voted in Clark, and the fact that no one advertised there, it would be safer to look at the populated areas of northern Nevada. Carson City results are very interesting to me.

Next to nobody voted in North Las Vegas.  That is the reasonable inference from the really low turnout in Clark. It was only 18%. In Washoe it was 32%  

In Carson City it was actually 50%.

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Question: What would the result of this race have been (give percentages) had:

(1) Obama's favorables been 10 points higher.

Now, what would the result be had

(2) Weprin voted against gay marriage.

Weprin would have been sworn in today.

The correct answer is that Weprin would have narrowly lost if he had voted against gay marriage. If Obama's approval ratings were 10 points higher, Weprin would have been sworn in today regardless of his vote on gay marriage.

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I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again? The catholic vote is more interesting imho. Not to say gay marriage didn't have an impact with them, but perhaps the general state of the economy and the resulting approval of Obama because of it had something to do with it?

Not to mention gay marriage is not an issue for the Republicans to run on nationwide. Well, maybe 2012 will be the last cycle for that. Beyond that you will start to get majorly f'ed. Trust me.