NY-09, Special Election Thread

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

When was the last time a significant part of this had a GOP representative? It has obviously engulfed parts of several former districts as NY has lost a large number of seats. So like NY-23, it would be different for different parts of it.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Results should be here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html

Is there something wrong with this link? It leads to a map of the US that shows member press outfits by state.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The results page should still come up with no numbers, even hours before results start coming in.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


He left off the question mark and everything afterwards. I found the WI page from august and copy and pasted it on.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

That is the problem with single and double county CD's. Don't have much in terms of bellweathers to go by etc etc. The best you can do is create a formula based on assumptions of how Brooklyn and Queens will perform and what performances in them equal what performances district wide.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Van Der is good, but his mimicking other posters reminds me of a computer virus mimicking the name of a legitimate program. And thats what I think about everytime I see him do that.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


He left off the question mark and everything afterwards. I found the WI page from august and copy and pasted it on.

Strange. It worked well for me, only with the .html link.

But maybe the link is broken for others when you don't post the full one ...

Thx anyway for posting the full link again.

Maybe it's a product of location.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Clark County: 58% to 39% OHHHHHHH!

You know I was totally not planning on saying any cliche statements on the nation here, but WOW! How can you not with numbers like that. I think its safe to say that all of the campaign committees and 501(c)4s are debating writing off Nevada this year. Those kind of numbers beg the question...are we just going to throw money down the toilet in a state like that?

Lets just call a spade and a spade here, if the economy doesn't turn around talk of size able Dem gains in the house is bat sh*t crazy talk and talk of Obama having any advantage going into 2012 will get you kicked to the kiddy table.

Keep in mind that piece of Clark in NV-02 is heavily Republican rural and exurban voters.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Courtesy of the Politico

"While the 2nd District is largely rural, it includes a sliver of blue Clark County that makes up about 7 percent of the district, including parts of Henderson and North Las Vegas. Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 5 points in this part of the district, an area where Democrats need high turnout from their base to prevail in next year’s presidential race, Senate race and a competitive Las Vegas-area House race.

If Marshall loses — or even underperforms — in Clark County, it could be a bad omen for Democrats like Obama, Senate candidate Shelley Berkley and numerous hopefuls eyeing runs in Las Vegas-area seats.

It could prove especially troubling because neither campaign has advertised in the more expensive Las Vegas media market that covers Clark County, so an Amodei win there either means that Republicans are disproportionately motivated to turn out or that Democrats are crossing party lines to vote for him — either is bad news for Democrats."



Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63288_Page2.html#ixzz1XtfqUTwC

Apparently Politico doesn't know where North Las Vegas is. If the district actually did contain North Las Vegas, and these were the results, it would be big, big trouble (like the Dems getting under 40% nationally). In other news, Marshall is losing Washoe by 10 points, and by extension the Democrats the state.

lol, North Las Vegas.

Politico needs to get a clue.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

By the way looking at the Nevada map, CD 2 definitely does include a decent portion of North Las Vegas and its pretty safe to say that most of the 6,000 votes came from part of Clark county since the southern part is very rural. I mean there is like one road throughout that part and a couple very tiny towns.

That was North Las Vegas they just got creamed in.

Ok, mapped things out on DRA. The district contains about 86,000 residents in Clark County. Of them only 27,000 live in North Las Vegas, excluding Nellis AFB (which doesn't have that many people anyways). What we seemed to miss was the city of Mesquite. That adds another 25,000 odd residents. And it's on the Utah border. Also those precincts in the south do have a lot of people, and those are relatively wealthy areas and they vote Republican. About 40,000 odd people there. The North Las Vegas portion is about 50% Hispanic, wheareas the district overall within Clark County is only 27% Hispanic. In a special election I really wonder how many people showed up. The rich areas to the south I am sure showed up, and Mesquite seems like it would be teabagger central. Unless we have precinct results, we can't tell whether there was a catastrophic swing in North Las Vegas or not. And considering how few people actually voted in Clark, and the fact that no one advertised there, it would be safer to look at the populated areas of northern Nevada. Carson City results are very interesting to me.

Next to nobody voted in North Las Vegas.  That is the reasonable inference from the really low turnout in Clark. It was only 18%. In Washoe it was 32%  

In Carson City it was actually 50%.

Which is why, regardless of the exact partisanship of this part of Clark, the idea that this part of the district should get a mention as "the place to keep your eye on", without even a mention of Washoe or Carson City, is incredibly misleading on the part of Politico.