NY-09, Special Election Thread

[cinyc]

There won't be much of a NY-09 left after redistricting, so if Democrats draw the lines properly, Weiner's going to have to face off against a sitting Democratic Congressman largely on that other Congressman's turf.  My guess is he'll retire in anticipation of running for mayor, instead.

[cinyc]

I think de Blasio obviously gains the most, fwiw, as he's the other outer borough white mega-liberal in the race

...and then, there's Alec Baldwin for mayor.  Maybe.

[cinyc]

Interesting tidbit about NY-9:

53.8% born in state
4.0% born in a different state
2.1% born abroad to American parents
40.1% foreign born

The bolded must be among the lowest in the country.

It might be the lowest in the country.  The only districts I've found that are even close are elsewhere in New York.

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The anti-Obama sentiment is still there, for NY-09 purposes, especially given his recent anti-Israel turn in foreign policy.

But that's not the issue.  Special elections are usually won on machine strength.  The Democrats have it in NY-09.  Republicans don't.  So I doubt the special election will be close, as long as it isn't held on election day in November.  Even if it is, my guess is the Republican candidate will do better than they have against Weiner in the recent past, but still lose by low double digits.

[cinyc]

Interesting tidbit about NY-9:

53.8% born in state
4.0% born in a different state
2.1% born abroad to American parents
40.1% foreign born

The bolded must be among the lowest in the country.

I'd guess Hal Rogers district in KY, or TN-1 have similarly low percentages born in a different state.

Nope.  According to the 2000 Census Data, NY-09 has the lowest percentage of people born in another US state at 4.03%, followed by NY-05 (4.71%), NY-13 (5.39%), NY-07 (5.60%), NY-03 (5.85%), NY-16 (6.57%), NY-12 (6.92%) and NY-04 (7.15%).

Notice a pattern - well, excluding the Puerto Rico At Large Resident Commissioner (6.13%), 9 of the top 10 are in New York.  CA-31 (7.30%) breaks the string at 9th.  NY-02 (7.34%) follows in 10th place.   IL-04 (8.01%) is 11th, excluding PR.

TN-01 is 31.66% non-Tennessee US born - good for 312th or so out of 437 (435 + PR + DC); Hal Rogers' KY-05 is 17.81% non-Kentucky US born - 96th or so out of 437.

For these purposes, Puerto Rico is not considered another state, which partially explains why some of the heavily Puerto Rican Hispanic NYC and Chicago Hispanic districts are included in the top 10.

The 10 districts with the most out-of-state residents?  As one would expect, 6 of them are in Florida, 2 in Arizona and 2 in Nevada.  FL-14 (68.34%) had the highest percentage of residents born in another state, followed by NV-03 (65.96%) and FL-13 (65.68%).  That's SW Florida and suburban Las Vegas.

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As of 2000, no.  148,738 of the 262,593 foreign-born residents (56.6%) classified themselves as White alone; 73,217 classified themselves as Asian alone (27.9%).   NY-09 is geographically diverse and heavily Gerrymandered.   Among others, Sheepshead Bay has a large Russian and Eastern European Jewish population.

[cinyc]

The election is going to be on September 13th which is conveniently the day of the Nevada special election as well.

And the New York primary elections, which makes sense - to save money.

It also means that the parties will pick the candidates.

[cinyc]

The election is going to be on September 13th which is conveniently the day of the Nevada special election as well.

And the New York primary elections, which makes sense - to save money.

It also means that the parties will pick the candidates.

..which helps the Republicans, funnily enough. Since the Republicans actually want to put up the strongest candidate possible but the Democrats are trying to thread the needle of putting up someone strong, but not strong enough to be able to challenge Ackerman or Crowley in a primary post-redistricting

Maybe.  Maybe not.  I don't think the 2011 primaries will be much to write home about in terms of turnout.  2011 is an off-off year for New York City elections.  I don't even think NYC city council seats are up, just some judges, county committee seats and the like.  But if they're holding a primary election that day anyway, they might as well hold a special election at the same time.  The workers will be there.

I still say NY-09 is fools' gold for Republicans.  The blue-collar types who live in parts of the district were more attracted to Bush in 2004 because of his national security credibility and McCain because he wasn't Obama.  That doesn't necessarily translate to a Congressional race, especially one with low turnout where machine politics matters.  The Democrats have the real machine there.

[cinyc]

Based off what exactly??  Gay marriage vote or not, Turner was likely to get the Orthodox vote and win the Brooklyn portion of the district

Btw, the district has more than just Orthodox Jews, Werpin leads among Jewish voters.

NY-09 has more than just Jews, too.  It's the non-Hispanic white vote sink in Southeast Brooklyn and Southern Queens, largely owing its shape and demographic makeup to the shapes of the Brooklyn and Queens VRA African-American and Hispanic districts.   The district includes substantial Italian and Irish-American neighborhoods as well.   As someone noted earlier in the thread, it's arguably the most New York of NYC's congressional districts, with the lowest percentage of residents born in a US state other than the district's state of any Congressional district in the country (though it has a large share of foreign-born residents).

Whether the blue-collar Archie Bunker types who live in the district would vote against Weprin due to his stance on gay marriage is an interesting question.  There may be a few, but, chances are, those whose vote would be swayed by Weprin's stance on gay marriage are already voting for Turner anyway because he's the more socially conservative candidate.   

Special elections are usually won on turnout.  Having an organized group behind you, like Orthodox Rabbis can't hurt.  But despite running a terrible campaign, I have a hard time seeing Weprin lose this.  Democrats have the organizational muscle and machine in NY-09 - which matters a lot.

[cinyc]

Magellan thinks black voters are going 40-39 for Turner. That... seems unlikely.

Because the poll was of over 2,000 voters, the African American sample size wasn't as small as usual for these polls, either - 115 - in a district that is only 5% black.   That would theoretically put the MoE in the 9-10 point range, though I doubt the subsample was properly weighted or as random as it should be if Turner is winning the black vote.

How likely is a 36% Obama approval in this district ?

I thought he won with about 60% there ... ?

That's Obama's job approval number among likely voters, not registered voters or adults.  Figuring out which voters are likely to turn out for an off year special election is challenging.  If disgust at Obama is what will drive special election turnout, that number might not be far off.  But that's a big if.

Like much in this poll, Obama's 36% job approval number seems a bit off.  Those with no opinion on Obama's job approval were in double digits, which is a bit unusual for Presidential job approval question.  If you take out the undecideds, Obama's Magellan Strategies NY-09 job approval is at 41%, near Siena's NY-09 approval rating among those with an opinion - 46%.   But Siena's undecideds were only 3%, not 12.5%.

[cinyc]

Well, Weprin might not be ready for prime time but it's not like Turner is less gaffe-prone.

http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/9916745664/nyt-reviews-yesterdays-candidate-forum

And Mr. Turner found himself befuddled when he and Mr. Weprin were asked to name one corporate tax loophole they would like to close. After pondering the matter, Mr. Turner smiled widely and pleaded no contest. “As a Republican, I never met a loophole I didn’t like,” he said. “I really don’t know.” (Mr. Weprin cited tax breaks for companies that move jobs overseas.)

Answering "I don't know" to a question that most constituents couldn't answer isn't that big a deal except to insiders.  And a philosophical disagreement with raising taxes through cutting things that are not real loopholes isn't a gaffe.   

The so-called tax breaks for companies that move jobs overseas are a feature of the dumb, overreaching way the US taxes overseas income, not a loophole in any traditional sense.  If anything, the way the US taxes foreign income needs to be reformed.  Not by enacting some simplistic, populist band aid that makes little economic sense and puts US companies with overseas operations at more of a competitive disadvantage than they already are, but in a well-thought out, complete fashion.  How to do so is above the pay grade of all but a handful of Congressmen, anyway.

[cinyc]

US Corporations have a tax incentive not to repatriate profits from foreign subsidiaries if the tax rate of the foreign corporation in its host country is less than in the US. That's it. So what are we arguing about?

That that is a loophole instead of simply the function of the way the US tax system works and what that has to do with outsourcing in the first place, as it affects all US companies, even those who are increasing their US hiring.   

It's also rarely clear what exactly Democrats mean when they say "tax breaks for corporations that send jobs overseas".  One proposal was to disallow deductions for the costs of closing down US operations if jobs were shifted overseas as a result.  Another was to immediately tax income related to goods imported into the US from a factory outside the US after a trade or business is outsourced, instead of allowing deferral.  Neither is really a loophole in the conventional sense, and, arguably, would have caused US corporations to move their headquarters overseas.

A better solution to that problem would be to lower or eliminate the tax on repatriated profits, not hike taxes on US companies, making them less competitive than they already are.  Or to lower the corporate tax rate so it's not the highest in the industrialized world. Unlike the US, most developed countries don't tax corporations on their worldwide income.

DCCC just purchased a nearly half-million dollar ad buy.

Yeah, Weprin's ads are now showing up on the local NYC network affiliates, not just cable in Brooklyn and Queens.

[cinyc]

Oh dear.

Oh well, this makes the question of which New York City district to eliminate even easier... not that it's exactly possible not to, once the minority seats are in place.

incorrect, I think -- this district was never thought to be on the chopping block before Weiner had his tweetscandal

But after Weiner had his tweetscandal, conventional wisdom was that whatever Democrat won the NY-09 special election would be out of a job come January 2013. 

If Turner wins, I think the redistricting calculations become more complicated, not less.  It's possible Turner and an Upstate Democrat's seat get axed (probably Hochul, but since she won a R+6 district, it's hard to see how it's even possible to make the seat more Republican).  Or Turner takes over more Republican-friendly territory in Brooklyn (it is possible without hurting the Staten Island seat, which is almost at ideal population in its current lines because Nadler's NY-08 juts into white parts of Brooklyn) and Ackerman loses his seat or faces off against Crowley while a Republican loses an Upstate seat.  If Turner wins, the redistricting fight should be interesting.

By the way, Weprin won't be able to vote for himself.  He doesn't live in NY-09.

[cinyc]

Welp, the Democrats really screwed this one up, I guess it was inevitable that they'd be the ones to royally mess up a special election in New York for once.

This isn't over yet.  Weprin and the DCCC's commercials are in heavy rotation in the NYC TV market.  I have yet to see a Turner ad.  If Weprin scares enough seniors with his Turner wants to cut your social security schtick, he might pull it out.  And there's the little issue of the Democrats having a good political machine, unlike the Republicans.

[cinyc]

One person's endorsement that Weprin probably could have done without:
Weiner votes for Weprin, says it would be 'bad' if Republican won.

[cinyc]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS


He left off the question mark and everything afterwards. I found the WI page from august and copy and pasted it on.

I did the same thing and was in the process of posting the link when your message came up.

Only the AP will have results (or from their media partners).  Neither the New York City nor State board of elections post preliminary tallies.   Polls close in 40 minutes.

[cinyc]

Anybody know of any news or results sources that will get us a little deeper peek??

Read my last post.  New York City BoE doesn't do election night results.  The AP tally is it, unless a media partner like the New York Times goes deeper than county level (which I doubt).

[cinyc]

A few did in WI for the Senate Recalls, but it just comes in a 1 or 2 time news release.

"Within Milwaukee county Whitefish Bay and Shorewood have already reported, the only precincts left within Milwaukee county are in Glendale and Brown Deer" meaning that the Dem percentage lead in Milwaukee county will fall a little bit by the end of the night.

Or

"Pasch outperformed her 08 Whitefish Bay margin by 200 votes."

Any news source you recommend for those type of releases???

Considering that none of the New York papers or TV stations even have a link to results 15 minutes before the polls close, no.  IIRC, Milwaukee County reported which precincts were in and out on their website.  New York City doesn't do that.  This election has probably gotten more play with partisans outside NYC than in NYC.  You can always check the New York Times' website, though - something might pop up.


You can read about the antiquated way New York reports preliminary results to the AP here.  It literally involves the NYPD.

[cinyc]

For what it's worth, the Brooklyn part of the district has 33.2% of NY-09s precincts but only 29.3% of its registered voters.   Brooklyn accounted for 29.6% of the district's Congressional vote in 2010.  Caveat straight line interpolation.

[cinyc]

Really 40 minutes later???

Damn New York is backwards.

Our antiquated election results reporting process leaves a lot to be desired.

Results are starting to trickle in in other city races.  It should be a matter of minutes before NY-09 results start to trickle in, too.

[cinyc]

I guess we'll get results from Nevada earlier than those from NY today ...

Maybe.  But you have to remember that it's primary day in New York.  There are some very low level, minor races on the ballot, including a Brooklyn judicial race and county party committee precinct-level committee member in some places.  There is more to count than just NY-09.  Some precincts are in in the Brooklyn judicial race, so we should be getting NY-09 results soon.

[cinyc]

Really 40 minutes later???

Damn New York is backwards.

Our antiquated election results reporting process leaves a lot to be desired.

Results are starting to trickle in in other city races.  It should be a matter of minutes before NY-09 results start to trickle in, too.

Where are you getting those results? Link please?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_Page_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[cinyc]

Thats right, but if you look at the map there really can only be a few areas that could produce small precincts.

Care to make your guesses where numbers could be produced that small in Queens?

Considering a precinct can be anything from half a neighborhood to just one block or apartment building, anywhere.  We don't know what we don't know.

[cinyc]

15 precincts and the politician that looks like a 70's porn star takes the lead!

Too early to tell, but if all Weprin can do is break even in Queens, the Brooklyn part of the district will sink him.  It is much more Republican-friendly than the Queens part.

[cinyc]

Call me crazy, but if you sit and stare at the map it would appear that more small precincts should come from the Dem territory in the east then the slight GOP territory in the south or the swing territory in the west of queens.

New York precincts don't work that way.  You can have a small precinct because it is one apartment building with a tenant association that complained to the Democratic party chiefs about having to trudge elsewhere to vote.  Or it can be one block because the Assembly or City Council District lines make that block unique.  There is no reason to believe that the lines would uniformly be anywhere in the city.

Besides, turnout can be low overall.  As I said, this race got more play outside of NYC than in it.  The media market has other things to report on than one Congressional race, including the hurricane and 9/11 ceremonies.  If the current trends continue, we're looking at about 60,000 out of 184,000 active registered voters turning out, a.k.a. about 33% turnout.

[cinyc]

Straight-line interpolation treating Brooklyn and Queens separately would have Turner winning with 58.6% of the vote and 33.8% turnout.

Caveat straight line, though, especially with so few Brooklyn precincts.

[cinyc]

Current interpolation has Turner winning 55-44, though it's probably Brooklyn heavy and more Weprin-friendly areas of Queens have come in recently.