NY-09, Special Election Thread

[krazen1211]

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/index.php/2011/09/06/new-york-9th-congressional-district-special-election-survey-9611/

Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results of an automated survey of 2,055 likely voters in New York’s 9th Congressional District.  The survey was conducted September 1st, 2011 and has a margin of error of 2.16%.

The survey finds Republican Bob Turner leading Democrat David Weprin by 4 points (Turner 44.6%/Weprin 40.4%/Hoeppner 3.2%/undecided 11.8%). 



Probably too rosy, but it is what it is. If what is being said here is true, it will be his views on homosexual marriage that cost Weprin the seat.

[krazen1211]

Magellan's polls are far from accurate. I think they've missed the mark more than once.

This was one of their Wisconsin polls.

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/index.php/2011/08/05/wisconsin-senate-district-18-recall-election-survey/

[krazen1211]

US Corporations have a tax incentive not to repatriate profits from foreign subsidiaries if the tax rate of the foreign corporation in its host country is less than in the US. That's it. So what are we arguing about?

Yep. In the case of Microsoft, they would rather borrow money to pay dividends rather than repatriate cash.

[krazen1211]

PPP:
From first night polling, Turner up big. 

[krazen1211]

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/09/poll-republican-2.php

Republican Bob Turner holds a six-point lead in next week's special election to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., according to a new Siena College poll released early Friday that shows voters in the overwhelmingly Democratic district are poised to deliver a stinging rebuke to President Obama and his party.

Turner leads Democratic Assemblyman David Weprin in the poll, 50 percent to 44 percent. Six percent of likely voters in the Sept. 13th election are undecided.

[krazen1211]

Dave Weigel

DEVELOPING: A confused David Weprin to spend rest of #NY09 campaign shaking hands outside Fenway, in the cold.

[krazen1211]

Wow, Weprin is Coakley 2.0 on steroids:

http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/culture/2011/09/3282998/three-days-911-dccc-runs-bob-turner-rich-ad-showing-plane-buzzing-ma

Yes, this district is much more Democratic than Massachusetts as a whole is in terms of registration. 2008 Presidential results notwithstanding.

Weiner and Schumer used to get 70-80% here.

[krazen1211]

The 'draw the 9th in Brooklyn entirely' idea that wrangles Borough Park and other territory from the 8th creates a strong McCain district. That said it probably won't translate downballot quite as well anyway, and it creates problems with the Staten Island district.

[krazen1211]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=27pzclece3k#!


Hikind endorses Turner.

This video of course shows why.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uglr9NVU3LA

[krazen1211]

When was the last time a significant part of this had a GOP representative? It has obviously engulfed parts of several former districts as NY has lost a large number of seats. So like NY-23, it would be different for different parts of it.

Seymour Halpern, perhaps?

Need to find the maps of the districts in 1970, but at the time it appears to be 'parts of Queens'.

[krazen1211]

Are there enough Orthodox Jews to form a full Congressional district if you strung them together?

[krazen1211]

Race is currently exactly tied. 2 counties left to report.

[krazen1211]

Weprin is going down!

[krazen1211]

Eric Ulrich has taken himself out of consideration for the Republican nomination. Sorry, krazen, your dreams of picking up this seat are slipping through your fingers.

Orly.

[krazen1211]

I actually think Turner might this one.

If he does it will be because Weprin's position in favor of marriage redefinition.

I give you credit, sir. You called it a long time ago.

[krazen1211]

Opps, voters decided otherwise.

Certainly that does not matter. Johnnylongtorso said otherwise, and he must be right.

Eric Ulrich has taken himself out of consideration for the Republican nomination. Sorry, krazen, your dreams of picking up this seat are slipping through your fingers.

[krazen1211]

http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2011/09/14/behind-bob-turners-win-jewish-voters-opposed-to-gay-marriage/

Sir, you have proven yourself to be correct already numerous times. The peanut gallery has some odd mishap against accepting your assertions when theirs have shown to be incorrect. I wonder what about this reality bothers them so much.

[krazen1211]

People actually think this could be competitive? The Republicans have no chance at winning this seat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPa8teSoLwg

Replace "Jane Corwin" with whoever the Republican nominee is. Election is over.

NYJew, this mindless, incorrect drivel is why Meeker is crying about you.

Meeker declaring an election over is supposed to make it over.

[krazen1211]

There was never any real reason to expect it to be. How the hell are the Republicans going to take this seat after losing NY-26? That'd be like the Democratic nominee winning Georgia but losing Michigan.

By getting a majority of the votes.

[krazen1211]

http://m.nypost.com/p/news/local/brooklyn/weiner_gets_brush_off_a1vNTFMYqECUbAxvnhz48M

“Weiner left his toothbrush behind! It literally says ‘Anthony’ on it,” an insider said.

Turner’s wife, Peggy, a registered nurse, personally requested that congressional cleaners be brought in to scrub the bathroom, the insider said.

There also was talk of replacing the carpeting and Weiner’s office chair, the insider said.

“I do have a Twitter account. But I will use it fully clothed,” Turner quipped.




Lol.

[krazen1211]

here's the amount Turner (not Turner's overall vote) won over Weprin in the combined majority Orthodox EDs by Assembly seat (based on these results I don't see how Weprin wouldn't have won if there was no gay issues (I gave up after these ADs because it's clear to me that this was enough even with mild Turnout in other Jewish areas))
44 607 votes
45 1277 votes
48 604 votes

the reason I'm so confident that this is so because with out Weprin's homo problems there is 0 chance Turner wins the Orthodox vote.

Isn't it amazing how when some don't have facts and data on their side, they just spout insults?

[krazen1211]

dedicated to all my critics (hope you have fun tomorrow, because the Jewish Community will be happy though we would have been much happier if this election was not necessary (and I wasn't referring to Weiner's problems (though that too)))
just to repost some of the comments that were said after I made my prediction on August 11th that this will be won based on marriage redefinition (now even a Philip Goldfeder (Orthodox politician running for the 23 Assembly district) is trying to separate him self from Weprin based on that)

Careful you don't go throwing up on yourself with all that spinning you're doing there.

That's the third time you post this nonsense. I think we got the message, so please take your idiocy and get the hell out of here.

((((()((())(((

More funnies. Great to see who was correct every step of the way.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."