NY-09, Special Election Thread

[BigSkyBob]

Charlie Gasperino tears Welprin a new one:

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/queens/clueless_bond_pro_is_going_to_be_JoG9e5X3QURIC2MHV4BwCJ

The corrupt government is the bloated government. Politicians don't save the taxpayers money and pocket a taste of it for themselves. Politicians create giant honeypots, and, help themselves to a taste.

[BigSkyBob]

These rabbis "forbidding" voting for candidates need to lose their tax-exempt status pronto. If these were Christian pastors, it would be a huge scandal.

Unless, of course, they were Black ministers in predominately Black congregations.

[BigSkyBob]

Interesting tidbit about NY-9:

53.8% born in state
4.0% born in a different state
2.1% born abroad to American parents
40.1% foreign born

The bolded must be among the lowest in the country.

It might be the lowest in the country.  The only districts I've found that are even close are elsewhere in New York.

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The anti-Obama sentiment is still there, for NY-09 purposes, especially given his recent anti-Israel turn in foreign policy.

But that's not the issue.  Special elections are usually won on machine strength.  The Democrats have it in NY-09.  Republicans don't.  So I doubt the special election will be close, as long as it isn't held on election day in November.  Even if it is, my guess is the Republican candidate will do better than they have against Weiner in the recent past, but still lose by low double digits.

I would have been in  near 100% agreement with this call.

[BigSkyBob]

Worst danger for Dems is if Crowley goes with a weak Dem nominee to bolster himself in redistricting

Prescient.

[BigSkyBob]

I think the frontrunner for this is Assemblyman Rory Lancman and former Councilwoman Melinda Katz as the runner up.

Yes, those two would be in my top three, I'd toss in David Weprin too

Another prescient call. Very good.

[BigSkyBob]

Bob Turner's going to be the GOP nominee, I guarantee it.

Okay, this race might not be competitive after all.

Not so good.

[BigSkyBob]

what do you guys think of this race? Honestly curious from an outside perspective -- there's been recent arguments behind and not-so-behind the scenes that the progressive community is failing to actually show even a remote interest here, even though the district is less Democratic than Hochul's district is Republican

As a former constituent of NY09, I think there were better/stronger voices and choices in the community including those who weren't currently elected to public office. Weprin has also said he won't run for re-election for Congress if elected. Bob Turner won't win. But for the seat was once Schumer's, Geraldine Ferraro's, and Anthony Weiner's--there could've been a better pick, for sure.

Opps, voters decided otherwise.

[BigSkyBob]

Special elections are always strange.  Turner should never win here, but this district has so many weird voters, and with lower turnout, ugh.  I still don't see how he wins, but who knows.  You have to expect that the place will, without an incumbent, at minimum, start reverting to its PVI, so single digits makes sense.

First rate call.

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[BigSkyBob]

Turner will win this race because of Weprin's same gender "marriage" vote/speech

Ballsy early call made good.

[BigSkyBob]

Turner's own internal has him stuck at 42%, which is right around where he is in most polls. I don't see how he wins this.

Another bad call.

[BigSkyBob]

Opps, voters decided otherwise.

Certainly that does not matter. Johnnylongtorso said otherwise, and he must be right.

Eric Ulrich has taken himself out of consideration for the Republican nomination. Sorry, krazen, your dreams of picking up this seat are slipping through your fingers.

You might find this link interests.


New 2010 poverty figure placed at 15.1%.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-poverty-census-20110914,0,7327582,full.story

2011 probably will be even worse.

[BigSkyBob]

Can anybody shed any light on when the remaining 10% of precincts might report?

Never? Somebody noted that there were a large number of empty precincts in the district.

[BigSkyBob]

Hasn't it already been established that this district is more socially conservative on average? The PVI even fell eight points in 2008, that's a sign of something going on before now.

Jewish voters aren't monolithic, in other states they tend to be more liberal and focus on other issues, so I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that Obama is losing Jewish voters because of one low turnout House race.

No, I would conclude that Obama is losing Jewish voters because self-described "Jews" in various polls indicate that that is the case.

[BigSkyBob]

What a thread.

since I'm very stupid as I was told here so many times I have a stupid question

If liberals who are much smarter then conservatives because there so open-minded why wouldn't they want to see what people who disagree with them have to say

I don't mind reading things from people I disagree with. That's why I enjoy reading posts from Torie, Sam Spade, Inks, etc.

What I don't enjoy reading is mindless drivel that contributes nothing to the forum. That's what your posts are.

how about the fact that I was the only one to predict that Marriage redefinition would be a major player in this race which you would have to be a complete idiot to miss at this point.(why do I feel I might have stumbled on to something here)

I reminded of a story from the book, "Why Johnny can't tell right from wrong?"


The author, a professor, showed his class a film of a counselor hosting a sex-education discussion in high school. The counselor led the discussion by asking for questions from the students. The students asked their questions, she answered, and, then, concluded by pulling a series of flash cards that demonstrated the proper use of condoms.

The professor asked his students what they thought of what they just watched. The students were impressed with democratic nature of the discussion. The professor noted that he thought it was propaganda that they had just watched.

The professor noted that he won the students over to his viewpoint when he asked, "Had the discussion led to a support for abstinence, would the conselor had pulled out a series of flash cards explaining abstinence?" The discussion ended with certain conclusions because the moderator of the discussion meant it to end exactly that way. The outcome was pre-decided, and, to the extent that that outcome could be made to appear to spontaneous, so much the better.

You have to understand how these people think. When they say, "adds nothing to the discussion" they simply mean that your participation here doesn't further his agenda. That's it. He doesn't want a discussion where all viewpoints participate, everyone states his case, and the best ideas win.

[BigSkyBob]

I'm still not convinced the orthodox Jew vote itself would have turned this district. What % of the district are they again? The catholic vote is more interesting imho. Not to say gay marriage didn't have an impact with them, but perhaps the general state of the economy and the resulting approval of Obama because of it had something to do with it?

Not to mention gay marriage is not an issue for the Republicans to run on nationwide. Well, maybe 2012 will be the last cycle for that. Beyond that you will start to get majorly f'ed. Trust me.

The key point is that McCain already won over 90% of the Orthodox Jewish vote in this district in 2008. They couldn't be the deciding factor because they didn't have any more room to swing (although I suppose there might have been a turnout differential). Any talk on here of marriage is just noise.

because if not for the marriage Weprin would have won the Orthodox vote big putting him
if you can't understand this basic fact your totally clueless into the Orthodox vote.
and if you except that the Orthodox vote would have voted for Weprin but didn't because of marriage but still can't figure out how marriage effected the election then I suggest you see someone to help you with basic logic and math.

There is a bit of logic here. The Presidency has the greatest influence on foreign policy, the Congress some, and state offices very little. If Israel is priority #1, priority #1 will sway the Presidential vote, priorities #2,#3... will balance the Congressional vote, and priorities #2,#3... will dictate the state office vote.

[BigSkyBob]

Behavior of that sort doesn't do anyone any favours.

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Anyways, that's quite a bit closer, right? The same thing happened in this district at the last normal election. So... if his election had been a tad closer, would it have bee possible for a wrong winner to declare victory and get seated (I think that's the American term)?

"Sworn in."