zorkpolitics
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,188
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« on: December 08, 2004, 11:41:49 PM » |
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Kerry lost the popular vote to Bush by 2.5% nationally. One measure of who had the better campaign is how did they do where they competed in the swing states compared to the safe states. Since there was virtual no campaign in the safe states, these states serve as a control on how the people felt about Bush. In contrast the intense campaign in the swing states is a test of which campaign was better at persuading voters. By this test the Kerry campaign and GOTV effort beat the Bush effort:
Bush Margin net change
2000 2004
17 Red Safe states 20.0% 23.6% 3.6%
13-14 Red Swing States 5.0% 7.1% 2.2%
10-11 Blue Swing States -5.3% -4.0% 1.3%
9 Blue Safe states -17.9% -14.2% 3.7%
A look at the popular vote shows Bush had a smaller improvement in his margin in the swing states (1.7%) compared to the safe states (3.6%), indicating the Kerry campaign was better in the swing states, but not good enough to overcome Bush’s 3.6% incumbent advantage.
Thus in 2008 when there is no incumbent, the Democrats may have a 2% edge over the GOP.
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