Tennessee

[classical liberal]

Al Gore Jr's home state is DC.

[Gustaf]

I think that I'll ignore the CTguy v everyone fight, apart from commending Lewis on a good joke.

I think TN is not really a solid GOP state. I do however think that it's fairly safe for Bush in this election. But if Kerry were to win big, which he won't, TN would be one of the states to switch over.

[ian]

8 or 9 pts would be my guess - some on this board keep listing Tennessee, Ark, and Louisiana as possible Kerry states.  Why I have no idea.

Arkansas will go Kerry as long as he picks a Southern, non-woman running mate.  And the chances of this are likely.

[ian]

I also stated that there have been more documented racial tensions in the South than the North...  to which many people from the South AGREED with me...  And clearly a country in CT or MA would not try to ban gays...  

I think racism was one factor that caused "The Great Migration."  They weren't moving to Florida...

And CT Guy is right.  People in the part of Arkansas where I reside are, I'm willing to say, about 50% racist.  Dem. nominee for the Lt. Gov., Ron Sheffield ran against a pretty well-known Republican, Winn Rockefeller and lost by a heck of a lot, something like 30%.  I personally think that it was because he was an African-American.

[agcatter]

I believe the last time a lib form Massachusetts picked a Southern, non-woman running mate he got punked in Arkansas by 14 points.

[zachman]

Al Gore Jr's home state is DC.

Thank you. No one else seems to understand that was why Gore didn't win in Tennessee.

[opebo]

Al Gore Jr's home state is DC.

Thank you. No one else seems to understand that was why Gore didn't win in Tennessee.

Gore lost Tennessee because he was running as a Democrat.

[Ben.]

Al Gore Jr's home state is DC.

Thank you. No one else seems to understand that was why Gore didn't win in Tennessee.

Gore lost Tennessee because he was running as a Democrat.

But Bredensen won as a Dem?... I would predict that Harold Ford a charismatic, DLC'er will win state-wide when Frist steps down...  

I think that TN has trended towards the GOP ever since 1970 when Al Gore senior got defeated by a dentist from Memphis…. Gore represented the state as a conservative Dem (voted for the Gulf War, despite the Democratic leadership’s opposition)… by 2000 Gore was no longer seen as a Tennessean but rather was a DC Politician, where as Bush was not a “Washington Pol” and was seen further more as a Southern Governor and so appealed across the south and pretty much locked up the region, I think that the Clinton years shows that while the south is competitive, its not a lock for the GOP simply that there is great personal affection for Bush there as he reflects Southern attitudes very and against that Gore lost…Gore also lost because he assumed he would win TN, despite the close result in 1996… Against Bush a Dem would lose at the presidential level however against a less unabashedly “Southern” politician the Dems would stand a better shot and as I have already said fighting as DLC centrists they can win the state-wide offices as you have large urban populations in Nashville and Memphis that would be likely to vote for such a DEM and added to that Mark Warner provided a template for appealing to rural voters in the interior of the state, rural voters being a demographic to easily surrendered to republicans by Dems…                

[© tweed]

In a 50-50 election, Kerry won't win Arkansas, no matter who his VP is.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Opebo is about 70% right... It wasn't about Gore being a Democrat, it was about him being a liberal Democrat.

Bredesen won as a Democrat because he was just about running to the right of his Republican opponent and far, far to the right of his Republican predecessor.  That's why he has such a high approval rating - all us Republicans can say about him is that he's stealing all of our ideas

[ian]

In a 50-50 election, Kerry won't win Arkansas, no matter who his VP is.

You need to understand that I live in Arkansas & I understand the political sentiment of the majority of voters in this state (or at least in my area).  People are so disappointed by the job that Bush is doing.  And AR is typically a liberal state anyway.  We will vote Kerry come November.

[DarthKosh]

In a 50-50 election, Kerry won't win Arkansas, no matter who his VP is.

You need to understand that I live in Arkansas & I understand the political sentiment of the majority of voters in this state (or at least in my area).  People are so disappointed by the job that Bush is doing.  And AR is typically a liberal state anyway.  We will vote Kerry come November.

Remind me of people in '72 who said that they knew noone who voted for Nixon.

[ian]

I believe the last time a lib form Massachusetts picked a Southern, non-woman running mate he got punked in Arkansas by 14 points.

Very good point.  I do believe that the reason that Dukakis got screwed (especially in AR) was because he was so liberal.  Kerry is running for the presidency in more liberal of times & he really isn't quite as liberal as people (Fox News) like to suggest.

[12th Doctor]

In a 50-50 election, Kerry won't win Arkansas, no matter who his VP is.

You need to understand that I live in Arkansas & I understand the political sentiment of the majority of voters in this state (or at least in my area).  People are so disappointed by the job that Bush is doing.  And AR is typically a liberal state anyway.  We will vote Kerry come November.

Remind me of people in '72 who said that they knew noone who voted for Nixon.

Exactly.  All these people who live in liberal areas are SO certain Kerry will win because they don't know anyone who will vote for Bush.

[DarthKosh]

I believe the last time a lib form Massachusetts picked a Southern, non-woman running mate he got punked in Arkansas by 14 points.

Very good point.  I do believe that the reason that Dukakis got screwed (especially in AR) was because he was so liberal.  Kerry is running for the presidency in more liberal of times & he really isn't quite as liberal as people (Fox News) like to suggest.

Your right.  He is more liberal then he seems.

[agcatter]

There's plenty for Bush to be concerned about in this election, but losing Arkansas to a lib like Kerry is not one of them.

[opebo]

In a 50-50 election, Kerry won't win Arkansas, no matter who his VP is.

You need to understand that I live in Arkansas & I understand the political sentiment of the majority of voters in this state (or at least in my area).  People are so disappointed by the job that Bush is doing.  And AR is typically a liberal state anyway.  We will vote Kerry come November.

Arkansas is a liberal state?!  That's ridiculous.

[classical liberal]

Arkansas is a populist state, but not a liberal state.

[Ben.]

In a 50-50 election, Kerry won't win Arkansas, no matter who his VP is.

You need to understand that I live in Arkansas & I understand the political sentiment of the majority of voters in this state (or at least in my area).  People are so disappointed by the job that Bush is doing.  And AR is typically a liberal state anyway.  We will vote Kerry come November.

Remind me of people in '72 who said that they knew noone who voted for Nixon.

Exactly.  All these people who live in liberal areas are SO certain Kerry will win because they don't know anyone who will vote for Bush.

And all these Republicans who dont know anybody who's not backing the "brave and decisive" Bush for another four more years... its crazy isnt?

But AK will not go for Kerry and IMHO neither will MO (but there is an outside chance in MO) but AK no... as with the rest of the south it is not that the south is radically conservative (it was split 50/50 by Clinton in the 1990's) its that Bush refelects southern attitudes very well and given a choice between Bush (who has worked very hard to be the epitomy of all that is southern) and Kerry most southern voters will plumb for Bush... however it will not be a wipe out... Kerry will proably do as well as Gore (though less well in TN than Gore did) IMHO...      

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Arkansas is a populist state, but not a liberal state.

It depends how the word "liberal" is defined.
In Arkansas liberal might refer to economic issues only (just a guess).

[minionofmidas]

But AK will not go for Kerry and IMHO neither will MO (but there is an outside chance in MO) but AK no...

What's Alaska got to do with it?

[Ben.]

But AK will not go for Kerry and IMHO neither will MO (but there is an outside chance in MO) but AK no...

What's Alaska got to do with it?

Sorry I meant Arkansas AR... I have always made that mistake...
 

[minionofmidas]

Never mind...It was pretty obvious really...

[ian]

Arkansas is a liberal state (not overwhelmingly, mind you, but) a recent poll I have seen about two months ago stated that we are about 5 percent more liberal than conservative.

[Beet]

ian, what makes Arkansas stand out over all the conservative states, generally, which surround it? Is it something about the state's unique history or heritage?