NV: Internal DSCC poll shows Berkley (D) ahead of Heller (R) by 5

[Tender Branson]

The poll for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee was taken June 11-14 by Mark Mellman, who is also Shelley Berkley's pollster. Before the partisans discount it (42-37):

1. Mellman knows Nevada. His surveys for Harry Reid in 2010 were unerring.

2. The results are not that surprising and virtually mirror what he found in March.

3. Appointed Sen. Dean Heller's negatives are up a bit, thanks to the Democratic pounding. But he has lost only a statistically insignificant one point and still a lot of undecideds this far out.

Poll memo at right.

http://media.lasvegassun.com/media/pdfs/blogs/documents/2011/06/15/mellmandscc.pdf

http://www.lasvegassun.com/blogs/ralstons-flash/2011/jun/15/dscc-poll-berkley-uop/

[Badger]

Modify numbers accordingly for an internal, and it's still a close race.

[NVGonzalez]

Beat me to it. Heller was the only member of congress to vote for the Ryan plan TWICE. You guys don´t think that has something to do with it?

[NVGonzalez]

Jon Ralston, NV Politics guru also said the following:

"1. Mellman knows Nevada. His surveys for Harry Reid in 2010 were unerring.
2. The results are not that surprising and virtually mirror what he found in March."
 

[Meeker]

Tends to happen when you vote to dismantle Medicare twice.

[Brittain33]

That's good, I'd have expected Heller to be leading Berkley by 1 point with high undecideds in a Dem poll.

[Mr.Phips]

If Democrats win this, they almost certainly keep the Senate. 

[Holmes]

Still too early to make a prediction, especially from an internal.

[King]

Modify numbers accordingly for an internal, and it's still a close race.

Nevada polls lately have shown a strange GOP bias so a Dem internal might be accurate in this case.

[Miles]

Modify numbers accordingly for an internal, and it's still a close race.

Nevada polls lately have shown a strange GOP bias so a Dem internal might be accurate in this case.

I agree. In 2008 and 2010, Dems were underpolled in NV.

[Holmes]

Modify numbers accordingly for an internal, and it's still a close race.

Nevada polls lately have shown a strange GOP bias so a Dem internal might be accurate in this case.

Well yes, abuelita, who primarily only speaks Spanish and votes straight Democrat, doesn't wanna tell strangers on the phone who she'll vote for.