If in 1980 Carter had won the same 18 states (+DC) as Kerry in 2004, then Carter would have won 270 to 268. Since Bush won by 286 to 251 this year, this illustrates how population shifts have favored the Republicans over the last 2 decades. The trend is predicted to continue after the 2010 census.
I am not disagreeing on your point about the trend. I just want to say that I think had the 2004 election been carried out with the same demographics and population as in 1980, Bush still would have won.
In some cases the population shift has helped the Democrats. California voted for Bush I in 1988. In that election, Bush lost LA County by about 130,000 votes while winning the state by about 350,000 votes. In 2004, Bush lost LA County by over 800,000 votes while losing the state by 1.2 million votes. The total vote cast in LA County increased from about 2.5 million in 1988 to 3 million in 2004. It looks like the added people were mostly Democrats!
Statewide W. got 500,000 more votes in losing the state than his Dad did in winning it in 1988, and eyeballing the turnout graph it looks like the turnout percentage was about the same. Meanwhile the Democrat vote increased by 2 million from 1988 to 2004.
I think if the 2004 election had been conducted over the 1980 population, Bush would have won California. Add California to the states Bush won and that's the ballgame. Heck, Ford even carried California.
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