Is 50.75% equal to 50.75%?

[Erc]

States that either side would still win in a 55-45 'landslide':

2004:


'Swings':  212

2000:



'Swings':  221

1980:


'Swings':  400

[Erc]

Looking at the trend of standard deviations of state margins off of the national average in a given year over time...

It seems that, generally, the country has been growing more polarized (geographically speaking) since 1960.  (Note that 1964 stands out like a sore thumb [sorry, but I can't post a graph]--but that's almost entirely due to Mississippi).

The country was more polarized before 1960...but that's due to the fact that the South was much more solid for the Democrats back then than it is now for the Republicans.

1960 (NOT 1964) has stuck out repeatedly in my analyses as a critical year--the year you saw the first huge shift in the North towards the Democrats, and in the South towards the Republicans.  While this process is taking place, the country as a whole is very unpolarized.

Although it can be argued whether the country as a whole is more polarized or not--geographically speaking, the V-shaped curve--and the current increase in polarization--is a direct manifestation of the South getting more Republican, and the North getting more Democrat--a trend that's continued since FDR's death.

Std Dev Data: (2004 -> 1892:  does not include 1924 or 1912 (too wacky) )
0.105332408   
0.108562977   
0.092264059   
0.08120441   
0.079458834   
0.087870571   
0.099539878   
0.077469894   
0.089644931   
0.085452188   
0.116386254   
0.058259472   
0.084479903   
0.085590108   
0.103639768   
0.128139653   
0.135731885   
0.122677048   
0.137523412   
0.124419216   
0.175761763   
0.145235624   
0.158750435   
0.204461501   
0.144517543   
0.183074314   
0.16001398
 

[Erc]

The Most Polarized Election in History:  1904



Blue states represent the 'swing' states:  Only 141 EV's even theoreticallly up for grabs.

EDIT:  Oh, and Wyoming should exist.  And it isn't a swing state.