Romney vs. Obama

[NHI]

Thoughts?

[RogueBeaver]

Depends on the economy come fall 2012. McCain still had a miniscule shot until Lehman.

[Mr.Phips]

Depends on the economy come fall 2012. McCain still had a miniscule shot until Lehman.

People's attutudes about the economy usually solidfy by June of an election year. 

[Mehmentum]

Obama has a slight advantage right now, but too much can change in a year to make a prediction. 

[RogueBeaver]

It still depends what the economy looks like next year. If unemployment is declining but still above normal (6-8%), then Obama can still win- Bush 2004 or Reagan 1984. The danger for Obama is a downward trajectory that starts too late, too slow, as happened with GHWB in '92.

[Mr.Phips]

It still depends what the economy looks like next year. If unemployment is declining but still above normal (6-8%), then Obama can still win- Bush 2004 or Reagan 1984. The danger for Obama is a downward trajectory that starts too late, too slow, as happened with GHWB in '92.

The unemployment rate needs to be declining in the second quarter(March through June) of 2012.  If unemployment is stagnant in the second quarter, but starts declining in the summer, its not going to do Obama any good.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unemployment will be a factor but others like Ghaddafi killing or capture or housing bubble and or gas prices improves will help Obama out alot. He must accomplish what he set out to do get Ghaddifi out of power.

[stegosaurus]

Like others suggest, it's entirely dependent on the economy of 2012. Unfortunately for Obama, it will take more than modest improvement to save his reelection chances. "It could have been  worse" is not going to sell well, especially when that point is arguable. If unemployment is still over 8% this time next year, then Obama will probably lose. Of course, this is assuming that the GOP candidate doesn't have a catastrophic meltdown.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Obama has a slight advantage right now, but too much can change in a year to make a prediction. 

[milhouse24]

Depends on the economy come fall 2012. McCain still had a miniscule shot until Lehman.

People's attutudes about the economy usually solidfy by June of an election year. 

That may have been right 4 years ago, but in this ADD, 24 hour internet news cycle - Voters want action today.  Most people are connected to the Internet and are fed up with Obama.  The key for every Republican, right now, is to announce for the Presidency, and get Citizens thinking about the election as if it were 6 months from now in November 2011.  Increase the focus on Obama, increase the pressure and anxiety, because waiting until June of 2012 to hammer Obama will be too late.  Most Citizens will be closely following the news in January for Iowa, NH, and South Carolina.  The marketing themes established from November to February will plant the seeds for a Romney/GOP victory.

[Lief 🗽]

If Romney is the nominee, I see the race as a toss-up heading into September and October, at which point Romney breaks away and wins the election with about the same margin as Obama won by in 2008.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Nope.

[tmthforu94]

I honestly believe Romney has a very good chance at becoming the next President of America. That being said, I think it all depends on how the economy looks on election day.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Nope.

[NHI]

I honestly believe Romney has a very good chance at becoming the next President of America. That being said, I think it all depends on how the economy looks on election day.

[TheGlobalizer]

Maybe.  He's electable, at least, but I think Obama can out-act-sincere him.  The exceptional liar beats the pedestrian liar.

[angus]

Thoughts?

Maybe.  Obama no longer gives me a raging hard-on the way he did in his first campaign, so if I vote for him again, it'll be strictly for economic reasons.  And, to be honest, I"m starting to feel some love for Mitt Romney.  Not like butterflies in my stomach or anything, but we have our moments.