Argentina 2011: Election day Sunday 23th october (POST ELECTION)

[Edu]

Well, I just voted for the 4th time this year and it was pretty quick, no standing in line and those other annoying things

I voted for Hermes Binner if anyone wants to know

Polls close in 6 hours and the first results should start coming in about 9 hours, see you then.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

uh
I dont get it

These were primaries?

[redcommander]

Someone really needs to drop out after today and allow the opposition to coalesce around a candidate. The vote splitting is ridiculous.

[Edu]

uh
I dont get it

These were primaries?

Yeah, these are technically primaries despite most candidates running with no opposition from their parties.

Someone really needs to drop out after today and allow the opposition to coalesce around a candidate. The vote splitting is ridiculous.

This is why it will be very important to see how Duhalde, Binner and Alfonsín perform in relation to each other. If one of them is a clear second then someone might drop out. If they are close, they will all think they might win and I doubt anyone will drop.


It's still really early, but apparently exit polls are showing that Cristina got more than 45% of the votes.

[Edu]

1st Official results!

6,3% reporting

Cristina Kirchner 49,80% - Ricardo Alfonsín 13,20% - Eduardo Duhalde 12,11% - Hermes Binner 10,81% - Alberto Rodriguez Saa 7,40% - Elisa Carrio 3,05% - Jorge Altamira 2,35% - Alcira Argumedo 0,76% - Sergio Pastore 0,31% - Jose Bonacci 0,23%

[Edu]

According to the current results Cristina is winning every province except San Luis (Where Alberto Rodriguez Saa is landsliding and San Juan where there are no official results so far.

She's currently even winning the City of Buenos Aires.

8,76% reporting

Cristina Kirchner 49,40% - Ricardo Alfonsín 13,29% - Eduardo Duhalde 12,06% - Hermes Binner 10,81% - Alberto Rodriguez Saa 7,66% - Elisa Carrio 3,08% - Jorge Altamira 2,41% - Alcira Argumedo 0,76% - Sergio Pastore 0,31% - Jose Bonacci 0,23%

[Edu]

The City of Buenos Aires has 15% reporting and Cristina is winning 32,60% against the 20,77% of Duhalde and the 13,48% of Binner

The province of Buenos Aires is still only 0,43% reporting.

Winning Cordoba (21% reporting) with 35% against 18,11% of Alfonsin

In Santa Fe with 15% reporting Cristina wins with 37% with Binner getting 28,69%.


Of course she is not really "winning" since this is not a real election, but you know what I mean

[Edu]

Turnout of about 75%, Which is rather good.

10,90% reporting

Cristina Kirchner 49,05% - Ricardo Alfonsín 13,30% - Eduardo Duhalde 12,08% - Hermes Binner 10,94% - Alberto Rodriguez Saa 7,77% - Elisa Carrio 3,12% - Jorge Altamira 2,45%

Not going to bother to put the other 3 candidates that haven't reached the 1,5% floor.

Pretty surprising election from Rodriguez Saa, especially considering that his province San Luis has barely reported 1% and he's winning 61% to 18%.
Altamira apparently will manage to hold on for october.


Another interesting trivia is that Daniel Scioli is currently outperforming Cristina in the Province of Buenos Aires despite having a primary challenger and a couple of other candidates that are officially allied with the FPV. He's Getting about 50% for governor and Cristina is getting 47,28%.

In the city of Buenos Aires there was a big campaign involving the candidates for national deputies of the PRO, since they don't have a presidential candidate they had to work extra hard to keep their seats and they are currently 2nd after the FPV with 15% (against 30% of the FPV)

[Edu]

13,16% reporting

Cristina Kirchner 48,70% - Ricardo Alfonsín 13,31% - Eduardo Duhalde 12,12% - Hermes Binner 11,14% - Alberto Rodriguez Saa 7,80% - Elisa Carrio 3,15% - Jorge Altamira 2,47%

Cristina now outperforming Scioli.

Cristina is currently winning 12 communes in the city of Buenos Aires while Duhalde is winning 3. Thank you, vote splitting


Cristina's best province so far is Santiago del estero with 32% reporting where she is getting 80% of the vote.

[Edu]

The Hubris of the Kirchneristas tomorrow will be pretty annoying

And I'm still baffled at the very good election of Rodriguez Saa, but looking at the numbers one can understand it more. He's currently 3rd in Cordoba with 14%, 4th in the City of Buenos Aires with 11,5% and 2nd in Mendoza with 19%. If you are wondering what this means, then you must know that I just mentioned 3 of the 5 biggest districts in the country.

And all this while San Luis still reports 2,5% and he's winning by a 40% margin (though San Luis is pretty small, so I don't see it really influencing his national numbers that much)

16,32% reporting

Cristina Kirchner 48,72% - Ricardo Alfonsín 13,31% - Eduardo Duhalde 12,12% - Hermes Binner 10,94% - Alberto Rodriguez Saa 7,85% - Elisa Carrio 3,18% - Jorge Altamira 2,51%

[Edu]

The province of Buenos Aires represents about 35% - 40% of the whole national electorate and currently Cristina is getting 55% against 13,62% of Duhalde and it's only 2,71% reporting.

She will surpass the 50% mark nationally, I think that's a pretty good bet.

19,52% reporting

Cristina Kirchner 49% - Ricardo Alfonsín 13,26% - Eduardo Duhalde 12,05% - Hermes Binner 10,67% - Alberto Rodriguez Saa 7,87% - Elisa Carrio 3,22% - Jorge Altamira 2,55%

[Хahar 🤔]

Carrió certainly became irrelevant quickly, didn't she?

[Edu]

Carrió certainly became irrelevant quickly, didn't she?

She has only herself to blame She is lucky she has some pretty high profile legislators, otherwise she and her party would be wiped out.

30% reporting

Cristina Kirchner 49,29% - Ricardo Alfonsín 13,14% - Eduardo Duhalde 12,09% - Hermes Binner 10,46% - Alberto Rodriguez Saa 7,79% - Elisa Carrio 3,30% - Jorge Altamira 2,52%

[Edu]

Every losing candidate has appeared in front of the cameras and the crowds in their respective headquarters, most congratulated the president and then praised their own supporters for their work. The only one that hasn't said anything and only sent her vicepresidential candidate to do it was Carrio.

For anyone who wonders why she's irrelevant

[redcommander]

I think this is more of a reflection of the opposition being split than CFK being unbeatable. Buenos Aires certainly isn't going to vote for her in Fall.

[redcommander]

Why did Clarin decide to add the Malvinas/Falklands to their election results map?

http://www.clarin.com/eleccionesprimarias.html

[MaxQue]

Why did Clarin decide to add the Malvinas/Falklands to their election results map?

http://www.clarin.com/eleccionesprimarias.html

Because Argentina claims than Malvinas belongs to them.

[Edu]

I think this is more of a reflection of the opposition being split than CFK being unbeatable. Buenos Aires certainly isn't going to vote for her in Fall.

The thing is that we are going to end up with 3 candidates that will have about the same number of votes. Alfonsin and Duhalde will probably end with about 12% or 13% and Binner will probably end up with 11% or maybe a bit less. No clear candidate has appeared to claim official opposition to Cristina and between those 3 they get about 35% of the vote, which is still way too low.

No one can make formal electoral alliances now, that ship has sailed, the only thing that they could do is drop out of the race and endorse someone else which is not likely for 3 reasons.

(1) As I said before, Duhalde and Alfonsin will end up pretty much tied and Binner not so far behind, all of them have a reason to keep going because they think they could get some support and be the main opposition.

(2) There has to be some pressure from inside their parties to keep going, after all if they drop out they are massively screwing their parties in the legislative elections. We don't have an electoral system where you grab a paper with all the names on it and then just tick the candidates you prefer, our system involves you getting in a room, grabbing an envelope and putting the ballot inside it. But the thing is that for example you have a ballot where Cristina is the candidate and then in that same ballot you have the rest of Cristina's party candidates. If you want to vote for everyone from the FPV you just put that ballot in the envelope, simple. But if you want for instance to vote for Cristina for president and then vote for De Narvaez for governor then you have to actually cut the ballots and put half of one ballot and half of the other in the envelope. This may sound simple but it's a pain in the ass sometimes, especially if you forget a scissor . So, let's say that Binner and Alfonsín drop out and endorse Duhalde, fine, Duhalde receives more votes from both candidates supporters, but most people would just grab the entire ballot of Duhalde even if they had planned to vote for the socialists or the UCR for legislators, because if you want to do that you must cut the ballots and as I said, there are a lot of lazy people out there. Look at what happened in the City of Buenos Aires. 1 month ago Macri got 46% and his legislators got 45%, basically the same number. What happened today? well, the PRO legislators were all on their own and if they wanted votes they had to hope that someone voting one of the presidential candidates decided to cut the ballot and put them in. The result? the PRO just got 16% of the vote. I just can't see the legislative candidates for the socialists and the UCR, who are pretty much guaranteed that at least some of them will get to congress, to just say "yeah, just drop out and let us hanging in the wind, no problem"

(3) The other thing is that dropping out and endorsing another candidate might not even do anything. Let's say Binner drops out, do you really think that 100% of the people who voted for him are going to vote for Duhalde or Alfonsín? the thing is that Cristina is closer to them ideologically than either of the others so it's a good bet that Cristina would get a good chunk of support if Binner drops out. Same goes for Duhalde, let's say he drops out, how many people voted for him because he is a peronist? Are all of those people going to vote for Non-peronists Alfonsin or Binner? or they will go and vote for either Rodriguez saa or to a lesser extent Cristina?

For all these reasons, it will be extremely difficult to see anyone dropping out.

There is a catch though. For the primaries the country used the electoral system I described earlier in the post, but for the gubernatorial elections, 2 provinces (Cordoba and Santa Fe) used a new system which is the single ballot, something I believe is usual in the US. That is, all the candidates are in a single piece of paper and you just tick the candidates you like to vote for. This is obviously way simpler than the system we have nowadays in most of the country, it's less confusing and everyone from the national government to the most furious opposition figure has praised the system after the Santa fe and Córdoba elections.

This helps in a couple of ways. First, the usual accusations of fraud that happen in the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires (where Cristina landslided) is that peronist activists steal ballots from other candidates and you are more or less forced to vote for whoever is left in the room. A single ballot would eliminate that problem since all the candidates will be on the same paper and it would be stupid to steal them

It will also help in terms of the reason number (2) I wrote above. Voting for a candidate of one party and legislators for another party would be much easier and that would mean that the legislative candidates won't put up much of a fight if their presidential candidate decided to drop out.

Every losing candidate has said in their speeches today that the single ballot was a great idea, so I think it's pretty much a given that they'll try to introduce a bill in congress before the election to try to get the whole country to use the single ballot system. This is something that the whole opposition parties will agree on and if it comes to a vote I suppose it would pass.

Seriously, looking at these numbers there are only 2 ways Cristina loses the election in October. One would be if they pass a single ballot law and then some opposition figures drop out which I guess might help them reach the runoff. the other way would be that a major crisis falls on Argentina in these next 2 months and when I say major I mean MAJOR, like Cristina killing her daughter or something. I don't think an economic downturn or crisis would even do the trick and we can thanks Europe and the US for that

Why did Clarin decide to add the Malvinas/Falklands to their election results map?

http://www.clarin.com/eleccionesprimarias.html

We always add the Malvinas as Argentine territory to any map in the country, doesn't matter if it's in a school, or a book or a political map or whatever.


59,24% reporting

Cristina Kirchner 50,33% - Ricardo Alfonsín 12,49% - Eduardo Duhalde 12,12% - Hermes Binner 10,46% - Alberto Rodriguez Saa 7,49% - Elisa Carrio 3,31% - Jorge Altamira 2,38%

[Edu]

Only Mendoza, Misiones, the Province of Buenos Aires and San Luis are reporting less than 95% so I guess I'm going to sleep


94,43% reporting

Cristina Kirchner 50,05% - Ricardo Alfonsín 12,19% - Eduardo Duhalde 12,17% - Hermes Binner 10,32% - Alberto Rodriguez Saa 8,12% - Elisa Carrio 3,24% - Jorge Altamira 2,47%

[big bad fab]

The best possible result for Kirchner, I suppose: "elected" in the first round and 2 candidates strictly on a par and, hence, unable to determine which one should remain to try to rally all the opposition...

[Edu]

Ok, it's almost 97% reporting and I don't want to wait till they finally count that remaining 3% so I'll do this now.

First here is the map of the primaries, which is a bit boring to say the least




That big dot in the middle of the ocean is my representation of the City of Buenos Aires . Worst districts were The City, Cordoba and Santa Fe which get the lightest shade of 30 - 40%, then the shades go gradually up until the 80% range, represented by Santiago del Estero up in the north. San Luis as previously stated is the only province to vote against Cristina (Alberto Rodriguez Saa won this). The map is close to what one could expect from Kirchner, great in the north, very good in the Province of Buenos Aires and the Patagonia region and weakest in the central region.


Just for fun, here is the map of Santa Fe, feel free to compare it to the gubernatorial election and see the differences



Won everything except Las Colonias and Rosario which were both won by Hermes Binner.
Binner won Rosario by 1 point by the way (38%-37%).


I was going to do the Córdoba map, but she won every department including the capital so it would just be a waste of time
Ok, you could compare how Cristina fared compared to De la Sota last week, well, maybe I'll do it later


I also thought it would be interesting to compare Cristina's performance in the primaries with her numbers in 2007. Be aware that this is just an improvised attempt to explain some of the swings, I'm not factoring things like different turnout which could also explain the differences. This is just for fun.

National total = 50,07% (+4,78% compared with 2007)

OVERPERFORMED
Neuquén = 55,23% (+18,04%) the biggest swing in her favor. This tourist province was badly affected by the ash of the chilean volcano a few weeks ago and people were afraid they were going to have to close down in the middle of the winter ski tourism season, but they ended up doing fine and apparently the government did a pretty decent job helping them. Also in 2007 favorite son Jorge Sobish ran for president and got 20%, something that skewed things a little.
San Luis = 28,45% (+16,84%) Lol, she really did badly 4 years ago in this province. Favorite son Rodriguez Saa dropped like 16% compared to 2007
Chaco = 60,98% (+11,46) Governor Jorge Capitanich is a very popular figure there and Elisa Carrio is from there and since she collapsed this year I guess there was some spillover to Cristina.
Catamarca = 63,72% (+10,47%) Only province this year so far where the incumbent party lost, Cristina is hugely popular there.
Cordoba = 34,21% (+10,37%) Lavagna did great in 2007 in this province and the controversial election probably knocked Cristina down a couple of points. I don't really know why she did THAT much better though.
Corrientes = 63,27% (+9,14%) I suppose that this is what you get when Cristina does 5% better nationally
Tierra del Fuego = 61,97% (+7,36%) A pretty Kirchnerist friendly province and I'm pretty sure gay marriage probably helped her here.
San Juan = 65,48% (+7,24%) Governor Gioja is more popular than Cristina and probably helped her
Buenos Aires = 53,09% (+7,18%) She got 1 million more votes than last time, which is about half the number of the total number of votes she improved nationally. Some of her social policies regarding welfare and unemplyment benefits were almost directly created so she could gain support in the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires where 10.000.000 people live.
City of Buenos Aires = 30,08% (+6,31%) Better than Filmus in the First round but about 6 points worse than Filmus in the Runoff. Young people are turning in her favor and the city houses the largest university in the country, this could have helped.
Rio Negro = 59,97% (+3,12%) Right next to Neuquén, it was also probably favored a bit by the response of the national government over the ash crisis, despite being less affected by it than the former.
Tucuman = 65,45% (+2,77%) expected swing I guess.
Santa Fe = 37,87% (+2,37%) Basically the same, but she did better in Rosario than last time and probably that is enough to explain the difference this year. Things like Gay marriage and other social policies obviously helped her in that city.
La Rioja = 50,52% (+1,73%) One of the most conservative provinces, former president Carlos Menem is from there and he used to destroy everyone else. Cristina has been lackluster this year and in 2007, but Rodriguez Saa seems to be very popular and probably eats some of her support.
Santiago del estero = 80,15% (+0,67%) Well, I guess there is nowhere else to go if you already got 79% in the past election


UNDERPERFORMED
La Pampa = 47,91% (-0,17%) A province that is basically all countryside and farms probably still has a bit of a grudge from the conflict in 2008. There were troubles with the party legislative lists too.
Entre Rios = 45,77% (-0,25%) When the conflict between Argentina and Uruguay happened over an industrial plant near the river, Kirchner supported the protesters, but after a long time, when an international court ruled that Uruguay was right, Cristina basically gave the protesters the finger. I suppose any growth Cristina might have had here was neutralised by the chunk of the province that was mad at her for that.
Santa Cruz = 65,52% (-2,95%) Yeah, not a big drop, but an interesting one nonetheless considering this is her adopted home province. I heard some stuff before Nestor Kirchner died that the Kirchners were starting to get increasingly unpopular in Santa Cruz, but I thought Nestor dying and getting hero status reversed that, though maybe the only thing that did was to stop the bleeding.
Formosa = 70,24% (-3,9%) Don't know, 74% was high enough already.
Jujuy = 57,78% (-4,18%) There have been some troubles in the province lately and this probably influenced her numbers here a bit.
Misiones = 63,78% (-5,5%) Eh, don't know what could have influenced this
Salta = 62,27% (-13,5%) I'm wondering if these swings against her in some parts of the socially conservative north are because she pretty much maxed out most of her support in 2007 or because there is some backlash against gay marriage around those places.
Mendoza = 46,92% (-14,02) This one is easy. 2 reasons: In 2007 Governor of the province, radical Julio Cobos was on the ticket. Also Rodriguez Saa has done surprisingly well here, going from 4% in 2007 to 20% this year and again, probably stole some peronist support.
Chubut = 51,57% (-14,72%) Biggest swing against her. Mario Das Neves, who is Duhalde vicepresidential candidate is governor of the province and very popular there which obviously helped Duhalde, despite this being part of Patagonia.

Here's the map. Blue are swings in her favor (darker the better), red are swings against her (darker means she sucked more).

[redcommander]

So is there basically no chance she won't win now, or is it possible for a Presidential front runner to under perform their primary result totals? I know she under performed in some provinces, but her vote total went up in comparison to 2007's primaries. Also is there a website with info about the popular vote totals for legislative candidates for each political party?

[Edu]

Well, it's been a quiet campaign season, which was expected after Cristina obliterated everyone else in the "primaries", but the election season that started in March with the election of Catamarca's governor is finally coming to an end tomorrow.

Cristina is sure to be reelected and even the opposition candidates realise that, which is why a lot of the campaign focus has been on the Congressional elections which is the only thing that matters right now.
According to the results of the August primary (which as you might remember was just like the real election because most candidates ran unopposed) the Kirchnerist FPV would get 78 out of 130 deputies followed by the UCR and allies with 17, the socialist alliance would be 3rd with 9 seats, right wing peronists allied with Duhalde would get 8, right wing peronists allied with Rodriguez Saa would get 7 and other parties would get 11 seats between all of them. If these results hold up, it's a pretty real possibility that the Kirchnerists will have a working majority in congress again.

Of course things will probably change. This is based on the results of the primaries where Alfonsin and Duhalde finished 2nd and 3rd respectively, but the fact is that polls and the general sense in the media and the street show that Alfonsin and Duhalde collapsed and Rodriguez Saa and Hermes Binner are going up. Especially Binner who has been polling consistently around the 15% mark (12% low and a 16,6% high). This would mean that the socialists are likely to get more Congressional wins than just 9 people. This would also mean that there is a good possibility they will win the Santa Fe province and maybe, if Duhalde really collapsed, the City of Buenos Aires.

I'm particularly interested in what will happen in the City of Buenos Aires where full blown peronists candidates historically never did so well. But in the primaries the total percentage of people voting for peronists (Cristina, Duhalde and Rodriguez Saa) was about 63%, of course the real "peronist enemy" in the city has been the peronist currently in office and with the most power, who in this case is Cristina that got around 30%.
It is also worth noting that the marxist-communist-leninist-trotskyst-whatever party got their 2nd highest percentage of the vote in the city (4,08%). Of course this is the same city that gave communist Luis Zamora 10% of the vote in the 2001 legislative elections and almost 13% in the mayoral election in 2003. And this is not counting Pino Solanas party that got almost 25% in 2009.

Nationally the far-left got around 3,5% in the 2011 primaries (counting both the Leftist Front and Proyecto Sur). If I roughly add the percentages of the far left parties in all of our presidential elections I get something like this: 1% in 1983, 4,3% in 1989, 1,5% in 1995, 2,5% in 1999, 3,3% in 2003 and 4% in 2007.
Proyecto Sur can't run a candidate in the presidential election, so if the results of the Leftist front remain unchanged (2,46%) then it will mean that it will rank 5th out of 7 elections. Though I suppose their share of the vote will go up.


Apart from the legislative elections other interesting things to look for will be the results of the Buenos Aires province gubernatorial election to see if Scioli manages to outperform Cristina (he couldn't do it in the primaries). Also, there will be a tight race in the province of Buenos Aires district of Vicente Lopez where the incumbent mayor Enrique García (an UCR politician who has allied himself with whichever radical or peronist that is in power and is now an ally of Cristina) is facing off against Jorge Macri (Mauricio's cousin). Macri actually got 2% more than García in the primaries mock election. Seriously, I don't like Macri, but Enrique García has to go, he's a political whore (even more than the usual ), he's a bit crazy and has been mayor of that place since 1987 (almost as long as I have been alive ). I should also add as trivia that Vicente Lopez is one of the most wealthy and affluent districts in the entire province of Buenos Aires, being surpassed only by San Isidro (which is right next to it).


Well, I'll come back tomorrow after voting and do some live commentary. Afterwards if my loyal readers (redcommander, Al?, Lewis?) want I'll try to make some post electoral analysis

[Edu]

Lol, 53 minutes till the polls open and I'm still awake. I need to get some sleep

[GMantis]

Lol, 53 minutes till the polls open and I'm still awake. I need to get some sleep

They open only at 8 AM? Seems quite late.