Argentina 2011: Election day Sunday 23th october (POST ELECTION)

[Edu]

Well, now I got some more info.

30 of the 60 seats in the local legislature were up for election.
Macri had 14 seats to defend and won 16 so that's a gain.
 
The FPV had to defend 4 and won 5. the FPP and Nuevo Encuentro both are soft kirchnerists and had Filmus as Mayor on their ballot but they made up their own lists for legislators (which means that the kirchnerists had 3 different lists of people). Both the FPP of former mayor Anibal Ibarra and the Nuevo Encuentro of Gabriela Cerrutti got 2 seats each. So all in all Kirchnerists got 9 seats. Though I repeat, 4 of them are soft Kirchnerists since they are composed of people who are close with the government but could deviate from some of the government's policies in the legislature.

Proyecto Sur of Pino Solanas had to defend 1 seat but won 4 in this election.

The Coalición Civica of Elisa Carrio had 2 seats up for election and won only one.

Things basically stay the same, with the PRO in the legislature having a minority but governing thanks to the support of other parties, though as far as I know they aren't formally in any official coalition, so this is why it's important that 4 of the kirchnerists candidates that won in this election are not under the official party line.

With more than 99% reporting the election for the legislature ended up like this.

PRO 45% - FPV 14% - Proyecto Sur 12,9% - FPP 6,6% - Nuevo Encuentro 6,5% - Coalición Civica 4% - UCR 2,1% and then a whole bunch of people nobody cares about.

[Niemeyerite]

This is hilarious:

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernando_Solanas
http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pino_Solanas

[Edu]

This is hilarious:

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernando_Solanas
http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pino_Solanas

?

[Edu]

Today there were gubernatorial elections in the province of Santa Fe, which is the 3rd largest province in the country after Buenos Aires and Córdoba.

The 3 main candidates are Antonio Bonfatti of the governing socialist party, the right wing PRO candidate actor Miguel Del Sel and official kirchnerist (FPV) candidate Agustin Rossi.

For months this was considered a probable loss for the FPV, with the socialists winning rather easily, but in basically every poll, Rossi was second and Del Sel third.

Right now the official results are, with 43% reporting

Miguel del Sel 37,4% - Antonio Bonffati 36,3% - Agustin Rossi 22,3%

So the kirchnerist ended up third by pretty bad margins, so this is a worse loss than expected for the FPV.

I think that the biggest city of Santa Fe which is Rosario has hardly reported votes, so considering that the city is pretty left wing, pro socialist and generally anti-peronist this would mean that Bonfatti will win the election.
Rossi will probably stay the same or go up a couple of points, but i can't really see this cahnging all that much.

Oh, and the socialist candidate for mayor of Rosario currently has like 46% of the votes and is winning easily.

[Edu]

On a related note, today there was a poll of the runoff in the City of Buenos Aires that will happen next sunday.

According to the poll, Macri gets around 52% against 33% for Filmus. If the undecides are pushed then Macri would win 61% aganist 39% which is basically the same result as in 2007.

Apparently half of socialist Pino Solanas voters will vote for right wing Macri and about 70% of the voters of every other party will favor Macri.

[Edu]

The Kirchnerists are currently winning in the provincial legislature (both senate and chamber of deputies), it remains to be seen if they'll be a majority or the biggest minority.

Gubernatorial election with 58% reporting

Miguel del Sel 36,92% - Antonio Bonffati 36,88% - Agustin Rossi 22,33%

[CultureKing]

Is Macri a Peronist?

[Edu]

Is Macri a Peronist?

Some say he is, some say he isn't, he sometimes said he is, he sometimes has said he isn't. So who the hell knows? As usual in this country some politicians are peronist only when it's in their advantage. In the City of Buenos Aires, saying that one is a peronist is not exactly a smart move. In the city the official peronists never did that well, especially in presidential elections (27.3% in 1983, 36.6% in 1989, 25.7% in 1995, 23.5% in 1999, a combined 43% in 2003 and a combined 32% in 2007). The FREPASO which was a leftist splinter of the (at that moment) right wing peronist party did well in the city winning it in the presidential election in 1995 and getting Anibal Ibarra elected twice (one against Macri in 2003), but while they were peronists they didn't exactly advertise it that much and i'm sure half of the people voting for them only knew that they were leftists but not peronists.

Maybe someday Macri was really a peronist but for the past 6 or so years he hasn't identified himself as such and his political rallies are completely absent of any peronists fanfare


Updated with 65% reporting

Antonio Bonffati 37,14% - Miguel del Sel 36,66% - Agustin Rossi 22,36%

[redcommander]

Will there be a run-off in Santa Fe is no one has a majority of the votes?

[Edu]

Will there be a run-off in Santa Fe is no one has a majority of the votes?

Nope, no runoff there. Socialist Antonio Bonfatti (yep, i've been spelling his name incorrectly ) is the next governor of Santa Fe taking over from socialist Hermes Binner who is running for president.

With 99% reporting

Antonio Bonfatti 38,55% - Miguel del Sel 35,30% - Agustin Rossi 22,29%

[Edu]

Last poll for tomorrow's mayoral runoff election in Buenos Aires.

Mauricio Macri (PRO) 55,7% - Daniel Filmus (FPV) 31,9%

If the undecideds are pushed then we have:

Macri 63,6% - Filmus 36,4%

Which would be an even better election for Macri than in 2007 something that would be pretty embarrassing for the government. I will be surprised if Macri wins 63% almost 64% of the vote, but it's not impossible. In the past 2 weeks the national government completely abandoned Filmus to try to distance themselves from the results. Remember that the national government is still trying to set the narrative to the inevitability of Cristina as president and a third landslide defeat in a row doesn't help that argument. Especially considering that on sunday 7th of August there are elections in Cordoba (2nd largest province) and the FPV isn't even fielding an official candidate.

There is some interesting data from the poll.

Women: Macri 60% - Filmus 28%
Men: Macri 50% - Filmus 37%
18-29: Macri 47% - Filmus 40%
30-49: Macri 52% - Filmus 33%
50 and over: Macri 65% - Filmus 26%

Of course the north of the city will go heavily for Macri (he'll probably break 70% in many places there), he's also doing extremely well in the center. He's also up by 19 in the west and up by 17 in the South.


Oh and by the way, is anyone else reading this apart from Redcommander?
Maybe I should change the title of the thread every time there is a new election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course.

[minionofmidas]

As in, of course you should change the title if you want me to read this.

[redcommander]

Yeah perhaps changing the title would get more people to comment. Have there been any recent presidential polls taken?

[Edu]

Well, I was bored a couple of hours ago. Here are some maps I did (I suck at it, I basically used a map I had in the hard drive that I got from a website and then I colored it with paint  ) of the gubernatorial election in Santa Fe last week.

First of all and just so we know what we are talking about here is a population map.



The black department in the south is Rosario and has a population of over 1.000.000. Historically that has been the most left wing, non peronist part of the province. It voted heavily against menem, Carrio won it in 2003 and 2007 (Cristina got 33% there) and the socialists have been winning the Mayor's office since 1989.
The almost black department north of Rosario near the center of the province is the capital city Santa Fe, which is more heavily influenced by peronism than Rosario. Former F1 driver and 2 times governor of the province Carlos Reutemann is from there and wields considerable influence. I recall the city having massive floods in 2002 or 2003, Reutemann basically doing crap about it and he still got easily elected senator that year.
Not much to add here, except that the department in the top northeast corner has the city of Reconquista and the bottom south department has the city of Venado Tuerto (which literally means One eye deer, and i don't know who the hell named the town that way and more importantly, why? )


Ok, so here is the results of the general election

Antonio Bonfatti (Socialist+UCR+ARI+others) is in RED


Miguel del Sel (PRO+UCeDe+UF) is in BLUE


Agustin Rossi (FPV+others) is in...oh no wait, he didn't win any departments. Sorry






Yep, Bonfatti won 8 departments while del Sel won 11, but obviously winning Rosario and Santa Fe put the socialist over the top. Rossi ended up third in 16 departments and finished 2nd in the remaining 3.

Everyone knew that the socialists were going to be reelected, but the polls and the people both agreed that it was likely that Rossi finished 2nd like 6 or 7 points behind Bonfatti. The real surprise of the election was the performance of Miguel del Sel, an actor-comedian who had no history in politics and I have my doubts he even finished primary school .

People shouldn't think that the 36% he won was because all those people are right wing voters. Del Sel had a massive personal vote and you only have to look at the state legislature elections of the same day to realize that. in the legislature elections the PRO only got 15%, basically 20 points less than del Sel. Not only is he popular but a lot of people wanted to vote specifically against the FPV and figured that the best way to do it was voting for the guy running for the party of Mauricio Macri. But i don't even think the people who voted him expected the guy to end up 2nd.

Obviously Rosario and Santa Fe are mostly urban while the rest of the state is rural. You may be wondering why del Sel did great in the rural south but fared poorly in the rural north (where Rossi was strong). Well, I'm no demography expert but i think the answer is simple. The north is rural, Poor and surrounded by ultra Kirchnerist districts like Santiago del Estero and the south of Chaco. The south on the other hand is rural, middle class-rich and surrounded by places like Cordoba and the north of Buenos Aires which are generally more independent and wary of the Kirchnerists.

It is also worth noting that del Sel and the PRO made an alliance with Union Federal which is a right wing peronist faction (del Sel's running mate was a peronist) and apparently he got the tacit support of Carlos Reutemann. That probably helped too.

Results in the Rosario department: Bonfatti 40,43% - del Sel 31,66% - Rossi 23,91%
Results in the city of Rosario proper: Bonfatti 42,93% - del Sel 29,84% - Rossi 23,13%

Results in the Capital Department: Bonfatti 42,06% - del Sel 35,49% - Rossi 19,07%
Results in the city of Santa Fe proper: Bonfatti 43,48% - del Sel 34,24% - Rossi 18,81%

Results in the city of Reconquista: Bonfatti 43,09% - del Sel 34,96% - Rossi 18,52%

Results in the city of Venado Tuerto (lol): del Sel 39,75% - Bonfatti 34,43% - Rossi 22,25%

Best department for Bonfatti: Las Colonias where he got 43,34%
Best department for del Sel: Caseros where he got 45,48%
Best department for Rossi: 9 de Julio where he got 31,83%

Now here are the maps showing the candidates support in the state.

This is Antonio Bonfatti



Big cities were the best for him and apart from that he got nice numbers in the mid and high 30's all over the province except in 9 de Julio where he only got 23,82%. His support is stable all over the province.

This is Miguel del Sel



Did great in the south and west and like crap in the northeast. He did very well in the departments surrounding the city of Santa Fe thanks to dissident peronist support.

This is Agustin Rossi



Did great in the north where he got more than 30% in 3 departments, which in reality is obviously not that...great . In 7 departments he got between 10% and 20% of the vote. in 9 he got between 20% and 30%. He was obviously punished in the rural south because people still remember the fight the government had with the agricultural sector in 2008.


Of course some in the government are spinning it by saying that Binner got 52% of the vote in 2007 and bonfatti only got around 39%, this is true. They are also saying that Rossi got 9% in his last election and now he went up to 22%. This is also true.
The problem is that the idiots are comparing the socialist results in the gubernatorial election of 2007 with the Kirchnerists results in the conggressional elections of 2009 which is a bit unfair considering that the peronist candidate for governor in 2007 got 42% and the socialist just got 40% in the legislative elections of 2009 Not only that, Rossi did get only 9% as the official FPV candidate in 2009 but the main peronist candidate that year was Carlos Reutemann (who had the tacit backing of the Pink House at the time), so it's obvious that a huge chunk of support for Rossi went up in smoke thanks solely to that guy.

Picking up examples of an election where your candidate did horrible and an election where the socialist did great and comparing those to this one is pretty ridiculous, but of course the average guy on the street won't go and check past elections results, which is why I think the spin might work


The legislature elections ended up like this:
FPV 34,70% (28 seats) - Socialists 32,84% (15 seats) - PRO 14,71% (7 seats)

The head of the list of the FPV was Maria Eugenia Bielsa, sister of Rafael Bielsa (former minister of foreign relations, failed candidate for governor in 2007 and the brother of former Argentina national team coach Marcelo Bielsa ).
She was pretty popular in the province and despite her declaring herself a militant Kirchnerist, people in general seem to think that she's more independent minded than Rossi. That, and the obvious personal vote del Sel got that wasn't transfered to the other elections, are probably the reasons her list won the election.

There will be a socialist mayor in Santa Fe where he won with 45,05% against 37,95% for the FPV and 10,16% for the PRO

The socialists retained the mayor's office in Rosario with their candidate winning 52,18% to the 30,10% of the FPV and 10,83 for the PRO



Well, this is it, I hope you enjoyed it because I hilariously spent like 2 hours doing this post

[Hash]

Any reason why Rosario is such a Socialist and anti-Peronist stronghold?

On a further note, I have a clue why, but why do Kirchnerists/Peronists get along so badly with socialists?

[Edu]

Yeah perhaps changing the title would get more people to comment. Have there been any recent presidential polls taken?

Not as far as I know.

Any reason why Rosario is such a Socialist and anti-Peronist stronghold?

On a further note, I have a clue why, but why do Kirchnerists/Peronists get along so badly with socialists?

Well, the anti-peronism is something they share with Buenos Aires and to a lesser extent the city of Córdoba.
Córdoba usually voted for the UCR and recently has been voting for the Frente Cívico which is an alliance between the UCR, the ARI and the socialists. We already know about Rosario and the City of Buenos Aires, well, we vote whoever isn't an outright peronist

Now as for why this happens I don't know. Cities are usually wealthier, the universities are located there and they are more socially liberal than the rest of the respective provinces.

Outside the province and the city of Buenos Aires, peronism is usually associated with social conservatism, you go to the north of the country and you'll rapidly realise this. Bigshot Reutemann in Santa fe is not exactly a leftie, Jose Manuel de la Sota in Cordoba probably doesn't have a lot of Marxist books in his house and Kirchner in Santa Cruz in the 90's was more of a feudal lord than a progressive.
Cities are more left wing than the rest of the country and in a huge chunk of Argentina peronists aren't considered left wing (not even now).

Peronism runs in most provinces and in the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires mainly using clientelism and their political machines which work great in rural areas that depend on subsidies and poverty stricken provinces. As I said cities are usually wealthier and more educated and by extension they are more independent minded and less likely to be influenced by the political machine.

Of course at the start of it all in the city of Buenos Aires for instance the anti-peronism was mostly a Racist and classist thing. Middle class and wealthy people worried about losing money and status and afraid of the working class and the "browns" who were Peron's biggest supporters. The racism is not really a factor nowadays but there is still an element that is extremely anti-peronist because their money or status is threatened

These are just guesses, I'm far from an expert

Also, you have to remember that the current socialist government in Santa Fe and basically all they grew in the past decade was as part of the Frente Civico. Socialists are still the biggest members of the party in Santa Fe and in Rosario proper they've been winning elections on their own since 1989, but the real boom for the party was after the alliance.



Well, the historical beef of the socialists/communists against Peronism stem from the fact that peronism stole what would have been their most basic supporters, which is the working class. After years and years of advocating laws benefiting the workers in the first half of the 20th century and after time and time of being blocked by the conservatives (representing the high class) and the UCR (middle class) they probably were hoping that eventually they would get enough votes among the workers to actually win an election.

Of course Peron wasn't stupid and took a lot of the laws that had been proposed by socialists and actually enacted them, partly when he was minister of government and then when he was president. At first he made an alliance with the unions which were mostly dominated by socialists and communist but he quickly started replacing them with his own people and the socialists and communists union leaders ended up disbanded and persecuted.

They were also strong in the universities but again, with Peron they were mostly displaced so I can get why they were pretty pissed at him in those days

Socialists and communist even took part in the Union Democrática (Democratic Union) a party that included the UCR, the socialists, the communists, the progressive democrats and the conservatives which was the historical party of the wealthy landowners. Lol, that's some group and all of them were openly backed by the United States embassy.

After Aramburu overthrew Peron, Socialists leaders Alfredo Palacios, Americo Ghiodi and Nicolás Repetto all got government jobs under the far right dictatorship.

Over the years the socialist party started disintegrating and a lot of splinter parties appeared, some were pretty right wing, others made up several communist parties and others were merged with the UCR or the peronists. it wasn't that unusual to find socialists and communists supporting the left wing peronists during the 70's.

But yeah, apart from a small amount of time in the early 40's Socialists and peronists never really got along that well

The socialist party nowadays is mostly socially liberal and economically pragmatists and the average socialist voter considers themselves as the real option to get people out of poverty and in better working conditions unlike peronism who usually wants to keep them poor to maintain their level of support.

[Edu]

Well, it's freezing out there but I've done my civic duties and voted, for the 3rd time this year I might add

Results should start coming in a few hours from now. Well, 5 hours and 11 minutes to be exact.

[Edu]

1st official results

33% reporting

Mauricio Macri 63,30% - Daniel Filmus 36,70%

We'll see from which part of the city these numbers are mostly from.

Well, Macri strongest communes have reported less than 30% and Filmus Strongest communes have about 35%-40% reporting.

[Edu]

Commune 8 which was the best result for Filmus (Macri won it 42%-37% in the first round) is now at 46% reporting and Macri is currently having 57% against Filmus 43%

Commune 2 was the strongest for Macri in the first round (60% - 17%) and now with 20% reporting it's Macri 81% - Filmus 19%

[Edu]

54% reporting

Mauricio Macri 62,65% - Daniel Filmus 37,35%




For the record, this is the results in the runoff of 2007.

Mauricio Macri 60,94% - Daniel Filmus 39,06%

[Edu]

65% reporting

Mauricio Macri 62,81% - Daniel Filmus 37,19%

Macri steadily going up a bit now.

[Edu]

Well, this is going fast

75% reporting

Mauricio Macri 63,04% - Daniel Filmus 36,96

[Edu]

90% reporting

Mauricio Macri 63,87% - Daniel Filmus 36,13%

Macri will probably go over 64%

[Edu]

99% reporting

Mauricio Macri 64,26% - Daniel Filmus 35,74%

Yeah, Macri winning was never in doubt, but the story that will play out tomorrow in the opposition media and the one that the official media will try to sweep under the rug is that Macri did more than 3% better than in the last election. Considering that the government's narrative is that the country is so much better now than 4 years ago then this is a bit embarrasing, especially considering that they made such a big deal about Filmus getting 4% more votes in the first round than in the first round of 2007.