West Virginia

[DanimalBr]

I am really surprised that nobody else has talked about this.  But I think one of the bigger surprises on election night was not that Bush won West Virginia, but that he virtually destroyed Kerry in West Virginia.  I live just across the West VA/Virginia border.  West VA was listed on every site as a swing state throughout the election.  It's a state that has about 40 percent more registered Dems than Republicans.  It's a state that easily went to Clinton twice and was the surprise of 2000 as most predicted it would go to Gore.  Everyone had it in the list of swing states this time around but it wasn't even close.  Infact, Virginia (a traditional GOP stonghold) was way closer than West Virginia.  On election night, one of my very first clues that the exit polling was wrong was that West Virginia was called for Bush so quickly.  Bush wound up winning West Virginia by 13 points, he won by 4 in 2000.  That's a major turn around.  Has West Virginia turned into a solid red state?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No.
I've ranted a lot about the Kerry campaign's idiocy as far as WV goes...

Summary: Kerry led in WV from the spring until the RNC... even after the RNC he was polling better there than nationally. But for some bizarre reason resources were being moved out of WV from the early summer at the very latest and by October there was sod all left. Kerry's numbers got worse as more stuff was pulled out so more stuff was pulled out etc, etc, etc.
The Kerry campaign acted in an arrogant way (espcially over re-directing resources to Virginia) and upset a lot of local Democratic and UMW bosses (these people run most of WV) and he failed to heed Byrd's advice on how to win WV ("...needs to get coal dust on his face..." etc, etc).
As a result turnout in the WV coalfields were some of the worst in the entire U.S (coalfield turnout actually fell in several counties).
And Evangelical turnout soared as a result of some evil little leaflets ("...Kerry wants to ban the Bible...") almost certainly distributed by disgruntled local Bosses.
I can go on and on about this for a disturbingly long time... most of it is from an extremely reliable source.
There's more I can add but that would look a little obsessive...

Meanwhile, Joe Manchin won a landslide in the Gubernatorial election and although the Republicans picked up a net total of 1 seat in each chamber of the legislature, this was a lot less than both parties had been anticipating.
The GOP did pick up the [open] Sec of State office. Both parties played a game of "Who can pick the worse candidate"... the Democrats won the game so the GOP won that election...

Btw, Bush won by 6% in 2000. The [Butler] swing this year was only slightly more Pro-Bush than nationally.

[opebo]

Yes.  It is infested with Born Agains, and in addition no one there can even remember a middle class. 

[A18]

No. It's still as Democratic as Louisiana.

[tinman64]

I would say WV has turned into a solid Republican state on the presidential level.  In state and local areas, I would say it is still Democratic.

This is not unlike deep southern states that began to vote Republican for president in the 50s and 60s but remained solidly Democratic within the state.

So I would say WV continues this trend, but a few decades late.

[King]

Yes, as the Democratic Party's renewable energy position has flipped  the coal miner vote.

[Defarge]

MA liberal hurt us.  WV is still a Democratic state, though only when the candidate is right

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, as the Democratic Party's renewable energy position has flipped  the coal miner vote.

Um... the Coalfield is and remains by far the most Democratic part of the state.
Try again.

[dazzleman]

I was also surprised by Bush's margin of victory in West Virginia.

West Virginia voted for a Massachusetts liberal in 1988, so I think the state has changed, rather than the issue simply being the wrong candidate.

Social issues have become more important, and on those issues West Virginia is definitely on the conservative side.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

West Virginia voted for a Massachusetts liberal in 1988, so I think the state has changed, rather than the issue simply being the wrong candidate.

Remember that in WV they have Gubernatorial elections in the same year as Presidential elections.

In 1988, Arch Moore (R) was up for re-election and there were rumours that he was stealing millions from the state of WV (these rumours were true and Moore ended up in Jail).
He got stuffed 59-41 by Gaston Caperton (D).

Dukakis rode Caperton's coattails (and Bush sr. rode Moore's...)

[dazzleman]

West Virginia voted for a Massachusetts liberal in 1988, so I think the state has changed, rather than the issue simply being the wrong candidate.

Remember that in WV they have Gubernatorial elections in the same year as Presidential elections.

In 1988, Arch Moore (R) was up for re-election and there were rumours that he was stealing millions from the state of WV (these rumours were true and Moore ended up in Jail).
He got stuffed 59-41 by Gaston Caperton (D).

Dukakis rode Caperton's coattails (and Bush sr. rode Moore's...)

You know a lot about West Virginia politics for a guy from England..

[Filuwaúrdjan]

West Virginia voted for a Massachusetts liberal in 1988, so I think the state has changed, rather than the issue simply being the wrong candidate.

Remember that in WV they have Gubernatorial elections in the same year as Presidential elections.

In 1988, Arch Moore (R) was up for re-election and there were rumours that he was stealing millions from the state of WV (these rumours were true and Moore ended up in Jail).
He got stuffed 59-41 by Gaston Caperton (D).

Dukakis rode Caperton's coattails (and Bush sr. rode Moore's...)

You know a lot about West Virginia politics for a guy from England..

Disturbing isn't it? :-)

[Democratic Hawk]

No - the Democrats can win West Virginia but I doubt with a New England liberal anymore. It's hard to conceive that it voted for Dukasis back in 1988

It will come home to a clearly defined centrist/moderate Democrat, who is more in touch with West Virginia's increasingly "Main Street" values

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's hard to conceive that it voted for Dukasis back in 1988

Even then it wouldn't have but for Arch's embezzelment addiction

[AuH2O]

West Virginia voted for a Massachusetts liberal in 1988, so I think the state has changed, rather than the issue simply being the wrong candidate.

Remember that in WV they have Gubernatorial elections in the same year as Presidential elections.

In 1988, Arch Moore (R) was up for re-election and there were rumours that he was stealing millions from the state of WV (these rumours were true and Moore ended up in Jail).
He got stuffed 59-41 by Gaston Caperton (D).

Dukakis rode Caperton's coattails (and Bush sr. rode Moore's...)

You know a lot about West Virginia politics for a guy from England..

Disturbing isn't it? :-)

Only insofar as you have too much time on your hands...

[Josh/Devilman88]

MA liberal hurt us.  WV is still a Democratic state, though only when the candidate is right

That could be for ever state... Yes WV is a soild Rep state now

[phk]

WV is low-income and white, therefore GOP. Give it up Democrats.

[Defarge]

MA liberal hurt us.  WV is still a Democratic state, though only when the candidate is right

That could be for ever state... Yes WV is a soild Rep state now

WV more than other states.  Most of her congressional delegation are Democrats.  Most of her state legislature is Democratic.  Though if you mean only in Presidential elections, I disagree.  Gore and Kerry were both too leftist on energy, gun-control, and the environment to win the state.  Bayh on the other hand...

[phk]

I don't even think Bayh could win WV, maybe he could against the right GOP candidate.

But WV is over at presidential level, give it up Democrats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't even think Bayh could win WV, maybe he could against the right GOP candidate.

But WV is over at presidential level, give it up Democrats.

60% of voters in WV are registered Democrats. To just "give it up" is criminal not to mention stupid.

[phk]

As long as the Christian Right, resides there, it isn't much hope.

[nclib]

The reason why WV votes Republican is because it is overwhelmingly white Protestant. Once that is controlled for, WV votes close to the national average.

National

White 58-41 Bush
Protestant 59-40 Bush

W.V.

White 57-42 Bush
Protestant 59-40 Bush

[MHS2002]

I live near Berkeley County, WV and it was interesting to see the strategy Bush took toward winning the state. He visited Martinsburg this summer (I didn't go, but I should have) and spoke a lot about "family values" such as abortion and same sex-marriage. It seemed like that strategy helped him out a good bit in winning the state.

However, to say that WV is a solid Republican state because of a couple of elections is incorrect. Manchin's beat-down and voter regisration in the 60% range for Democrats reflect that. Also, the state is still with the Dems when it comes to economics. I have been to some parts in WV that, while they may be socially conservative, should theoretically vote with the Dems in a heartbeat. The Democrats can (and possibly will) win WV in the next couple election cycles.

[Hitchabrut]

If you have a candidate from either of the two Virginias, I wouldn't be so sure. This has been slowly happening in LA, TN, and KY for a long time and it's starting up now in West Virginia. If the Republicans safely carry it a few more times by over 10%, I'd say so.

[Rob]

If the next election is focused more on economics and less on social issues and national security, the Democrats will carry WV easily.