FL-PPP: Obama once again leads all Republicans, despite negative approval

[Tender Branson]

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 48%
Disapprove...................................................... 49%

...

Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 43%

Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 40%

Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 40%

Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Herman Cain................................................... 37%

Barack Obama................................................ 52%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 40%

...

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

Favorable........................................................ 41%
Unfavorable .................................................... 45%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tim Pawlenty?

Favorable........................................................ 19%
Unfavorable .................................................... 39%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Michele Bachmann?

Favorable........................................................ 36%
Unfavorable .................................................... 37%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Herman Cain?

Favorable........................................................ 25%
Unfavorable .................................................... 33%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin?

Favorable........................................................ 37%
Unfavorable .................................................... 58%

...

Have Rick Scott’s actions as Governor made it more or less likely that you’ll vote for a Republican for President next year, or has it not made a difference?

More likely....................................................... 26%
Less likely ....................................................... 40%

...

PPP surveyed 848 Florida voters from June 16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FL_624925.pdf

Map:

Obama vs. Romney

[Tender Branson]

How is Michele Bachmann now the most liked Republican ?

Why does a quarter of Democrats have a favorable opinion about her, which is higher than Romney ?

[Landslide Lyndon]

40% of Floridians are willing to vote Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachmann for President. I guess BRTD might be onto something.

[Mr. Morden]

How is Michele Bachmann now the most liked Republican ?

Why does a quarter of Democrats have a favorable opinion about her, which is higher than Romney ?

At least in this poll, her numbers are good among women, for a Republican.  Compare her male fav./unfav. and female fav./unfav. to Romney's.  She has slightly net positive favorability among women, and slightly net unfavorability among men, which is quite unusual for a Republican.

[pbrower2a]

I'm not dropping results for Gingrich until he officially drops out.

PPP has dropped Newt Gingrich, whose campaign has become like the square root of -1... imaginary. He may see himself running for the Presidency, but so do some people in the insane asylum see themselves either running for President if not the President themselves. Gingrich may be the last to know, but he is out.  I'm dropping him, but I am taking the Tennessee poll seriously:

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

(Deleted to accommodate Rick Perry)

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Pawlenty

Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons

DeMint -- South Carolina
Santorum -- Pennsylvania
Romney -- Michigan and New Hampshire
Pawlenty -- Minnesota
Thune -- South Dakota
Gingrich -- Georgia
Bachmann -- Minnesota (but I am showing her in Iowa instead because of Pawlenty)
Palin -- Arizona (she is allegedly moving there) and Alaska
Perry -- Texas
Cain -- Georgia (but I will show him in North Carolina)

Obama -- Hawaii and Illinois...he will tie himself!

[Yelnoc]

If you believe the Tennessee poll, you are kidding yourself.

[pbrower2a]

If you believe the Tennessee poll, you are kidding yourself.

It says something, as the red-three coloration indicates.

1. Tennessee has gotten little attention in Presidential elections since 2000 because it hasn't been close. Al Gore lost the state in a close Presidential race, indicating that the state had clearly drifted R.  Presidential candidates rarely visit Tennessee.

 Have Tennesseans been so inattentive to Presidential politics that they can't yet make up their minds?

2. Tennessee showed a 44-50 split on approval and disapproval. That is surely not out of line. Barack Obama won only 41% of the vote in the state in 2008, and he has been showing apparent gains in the southern US (NC, GA). 

3. The gap for the matchup between President Obama and Mitt Romney might still be within the margin of error -- but the others aren't.  Sure, I would like to see stronger corroboration or refutation in a later poll, but we seem to have something here.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Of COURSE pblower takes that Tennessee poll seriously! OF COURSE!

[DS0816]

Tennessee is doable if President Obama wins re-election by a margin essentially double his 2008 victory of 7.26%.

In 2008, Obama garnered 47% support from female Tennesseeans, which was two percent better than the 45% in John McCain's home state of Arizona.

Since 1912, Tenn. voted with the winner in every election other than 1924, 1960, and 2008. But the margins in Tenn., not just from 2008 but also 2004, show it is now a strong Republican tilt. One can question whether Hillary Clinton, had she been the 2008 Democratic nominee, been able to put the state in play.



As for 2012 Florida, I fully expect it to vote with the winning candidate once again, as it has done in 19 of the last 21 election cycles. So, this state is vital to continue with the pollings.

[pbrower2a]

Tennessee is doable if President Obama wins re-election by a margin essentially double his 2008 victory of 7.26%.

In 2008, Obama garnered 47% support from female Tennesseeans, which was two percent better than the 45% in John McCain's home state of Arizona.

Since 1912, Tenn. voted with the winner in every election other than 1924, 1960, and 2008. But the margins in Tenn., not just from 2008 but also 2004, show it is now a strong Republican tilt. One can question whether Hillary Clinton, had she been the 2008 Democratic nominee, been able to put the state in play.



As for 2012 Florida, I fully expect it to vote with the winning candidate once again, as it has done in 19 of the last 21 election cycles. So, this state is vital to continue with the pollings.

Not likely. Doubling  the margin of victory puts President Obama at roughly 57% of the popular vote.

More likely, President Obama picks up the voters that went for Clinton in 1992 and 1996 but voted for McCain in 2008.

Reduction of the polarization of the electorate with only a slight overall gain makes a bunch of states possible pickups for the President.

[DS0816]

Not likely. Doubling the margin of victory puts President Obama at roughly 57% of the popular vote.

Which is what would be necessary, nationally, to make Texas possible.

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Tennessee was one of those states, along with Kentucky, West Virginia, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Clinton’s home state was strange in 2008—the female voters rejected Obama, giving him 39% support, down 10% after giving John Kerry 49%. I’d like to see some pollings on Ark. And I’d like to see some on all five of these states.

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I’m not sure I’m following you. What I take of it is this: States Obama carried at about 25% (or even more) have little room to improve on the margin because he doesn’t need to campaign in them; they’re just about maxxed. After all, if he were to double his 7.26% margin, I wouldn’t expect a 6- to 8-point additional shift in Hawaii, Vermont, Rhode Island, New York, Massachusetts, and Maryland (to name Obama’s Top 6, none of them his or Vice President Joe Biden’s home state; Md. was at 25.44%).

[DS0816]

Of COURSE pblower takes that Tennessee poll seriously! OF COURSE!

I found this from you, from March 26, 2008, @ https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=73173.30

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[Brittain33]

That TN poll had very high undecideds. Those undecideds are not going for Obama against any viable Republican.

[pbrower2a]

That TN poll had very high undecideds. Those undecideds are not going for Obama against any viable Republican.

The key word is "viable",  reflecting that the GOP has several possible nominees who might be unelectable even in some states (like Tennessee) that John McCain won handily.

President Obama wins with less than 40% of the total vote only in a three-way Presidential race, and then in something like a 38-34-28 split of the vote. It is possible that the GOP could nominate someone 'not adequately conservative' with a third-Party reactionary muddying the election. That would complicate things greatly, but it also has yet to happen.

The Vanderbilt University poll should be recognized for what it legitimately shows -- that the GOP is not in such great shape that it can expect to lock up the 11 electoral votes of Tennessee. The significant part of the poll is that Presidential approval is 44% now -- which is higher than the vote share that the President got in 2008. That itself suggests that Tennessee will not vote in 2012 quite as it did in 2008.

At this point, the 44% approval before any campaigning begins suggests roughly a 50% chance of the President winning Tennessee.  There were two earlier polls that showed Presidential approval in the lower 40s in February, so this is not out of line. President Obama rarely appears in Tennessee and he rarely campaigned there. He doesn't need Tennessee.

So what is different now in Tennessee in June 2011 than in November 2008?

1. The President has a record to run on -- or run from. He made the wrong sorts of appeals to win Tennessee or most other Southern states. If people in the North can reconsider why they voted for him, then maybe lots of Southerners can reconsider why they didn't vote for him.

2. Interstate polarization of the vote may be abating. That polarization reached nearly-preposterous levels in 2008. Issues of economics and military/foreign policy may trump the Culture Wars of recent years.  I have seen approval polls in Pennsylvania in the low forties -- and most recently a 48-48 tie. If the President has approval ratings in the high 40s and he is losing a little in the Rust Belt (economic distress, I figure), then he has to be gaining elsewhere. Tennessee is one such place.

3. I have seen slightly-higher approval ratings for the President in Georgia and North Carolina. Is Tennessee that much different from either?

4.  Undecided voters can be people changing direction. Tennessee used to be fairly liberal -- for the South, and it could be again. Al Gore is from Tennessee, and the state voted twice for Bill Clinton. If independent voters go from R-leaning to D-leaning in 2008 in Tennessee, then guess who wins the state?

President Obama may not be the disaster that many Tennessee voters thought that he would be in 2008 -- corrupt, soft on crime, weak on foreign policy, and willing to unleash welfare as patronage. The President may not have answered every question, but he has answered many questions.

This isn't 2008. Change is a reality. Your interpretation may not be the one that I would make. That makes things interesting.