PPP: Only Romney & Demint lead Obama in SC

[Mehmentum]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_0610.pdf

Pretty terrible for everyone else considering that this is South Carolina.

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[krazen1211]

That's not terrible for Romney or Pawlenty at all. Obama has a high floor and low ceiling in the South. And in Obama/Romney there are twice as many undecided whites as blacks.

Looking more closely, between Obama/Romney, the undecideds are 9%. Whites are 7%, blacks are 1%, and others are about 1%, rounding. By party line, 4% of Democrats, 8% of Republicans, and 16% of independs are undecided.

Looking like 56/43 to me. Not quite George W. territory,  but halfway there.

[Devilman88]

not bad for Cain either, considering most dont know of him

[pbrower2a]

Updated for South Carolina:

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Pawlenty

[pbrower2a]

That's not terrible for Romney or Pawlenty at all. Obama has a high floor and low ceiling in the South. And in Obama/Romney there are twice as many undecided whites as blacks.

Looking more closely, between Obama/Romney, the undecideds are 9%. Whites are 7%, blacks are 1%, and others are about 1%, rounding. By party line, 4% of Democrats, 8% of Republicans, and 16% of independs are undecided.

Looking like 56/43 to me. Not quite George W. territory,  but halfway there.

If anything, it looks as if the Atlantic-shore South votes very differently from the inland South. Florida votes more as if part of the Midwest than of the South, so it doesn't count. Demographics seem to be making Virginia a  Northern state in its politics.

Recent polls suggest to me that President Obama would do almost as well in Virginia as he did in 2008, slightly better in North Carolina than in 2008, have a better-than-even chance of winning Georgia, and have a significant chance (but less than 50%) in South Carolina.

Until I see fresh polls for the Deep South (AL, LA, and MS), I'm going to believe that the vote in those states breaks closely along racial lines, and until I see fresh polls for the Upper South (AR, KY, TN, WV) I am going to assume that President Obama is the absolutely wrong Democrat to win those states.   

56/43 in South Carolina for Romney, and close to George W. Bush results? No, more likely 52-48 for Romney, a nailbiter with Obama vs. Pawlenty. DeMint would probably get 54-46, which would suggest that DeMint would be in trouble elsewhere.       

[krazen1211]

56/43 in South Carolina for Romney, and close to George W. Bush results? No, more likely 52-48 for Romney, a nailbiter with Obama vs. Pawlenty. DeMint would probably get 54-46, which would suggest that DeMint would be in trouble elsewhere.       

None of those numbers make a lick of sense whatsoever unless you have reason to believe that Obama will be winning a large share of undecided whites.

[King]

SC is a state where undecided votes break 90% for the Republican, which means it would still be a swing state with Palin.

[Eraserhead]

The numbers for Palin and DeMint are the only really bad ones for the GOP. Gingrich... who even cares what his numbers are at this point?

[Joe Republic]

not bad for Cain either, considering most dont know of him

Obama vs. Cain?  What a terrible choice that would be for South Carolina!

[pbrower2a]

56/43 in South Carolina for Romney, and close to George W. Bush results? No, more likely 52-48 for Romney, a nailbiter with Obama vs. Pawlenty. DeMint would probably get 54-46, which would suggest that DeMint would be in trouble elsewhere.       

None of those numbers make a lick of sense whatsoever unless you have reason to believe that Obama will be winning a large share of undecided whites.

He can. Military votes, although he will have to win those. Those depend upon getting out of Afghanistan and avoiding trouble.  The GOP has no military hero, so it all boils down to policy and results.

[old timey villain]

Is it just me or is there a huge disparity between men and women in these southern state polls? I mean, Obama has a +2 approval among women in SC and has a -26 approval among men. This is maybe the largest I have ever seen. I know that women will pretty much always have higher approval of dems like Obama than men, but this is just crazy!

[Tender Branson]

Is it just me or is there a huge disparity between men and women in these southern state polls? I mean, Obama has a +2 approval among women in SC and has a -26 approval among men. This is maybe the largest I have ever seen. I know that women will pretty much always have higher approval of dems like Obama than men, but this is just crazy!

The 2008 exit poll wasn't really that extreme, but Obama almost won SC women and lost SC men big.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#SCP00p1

[old timey villain]

The statistics in Georgia, my home state, are similar, although not so extreme. Any explanations?

[pbrower2a]

Is it just me or is there a huge disparity between men and women in these southern state polls? I mean, Obama has a +2 approval among women in SC and has a -26 approval among men. This is maybe the largest I have ever seen. I know that women will pretty much always have higher approval of dems like Obama than men, but this is just crazy!

The statistics in Georgia, my home state, are similar, although not so extreme. Any explanations?

It could be that the South has long had a heritage of sharp distinctions in sex roles between men and women. The male world has been very different from the female world.  Men have typically been more prone to heavy drinking, to driving cars fast, to prowess with firearms, and of course to a love of the military as an expression of manhood. Tellingly, President Obama seems to embody none of that. Women have long been discouraged from doing so.  That is the old Southern culture, and it shapes perceptions.  That probably shapes the patterns of thought -- and political attitudes that bifurcate along lines of gender.       

Other regions of America aren't so traditional.


   

[old timey villain]

ehh, perhaps. That could certainly be part of it. Honestly though, I think a big part of it also is the turnout rates of black men and women. Black women in the South have one of the highest turnout rates and black men have one of the lowest

[Brittain33]

56/43 in South Carolina for Romney, and close to George W. Bush results? No, more likely 52-48 for Romney, a nailbiter with Obama vs. Pawlenty. DeMint would probably get 54-46, which would suggest that DeMint would be in trouble elsewhere.       

None of those numbers make a lick of sense whatsoever unless you have reason to believe that Obama will be winning a large share of undecided whites.

It matters perhaps that these are states (VA, NC, and GA; less so SC) that have way more transplants and in-migration from the northeast than anywhere else in the South, except maybe Florida, which is sui generis.

[krazen1211]

It matters perhaps that these are states (VA, NC, and GA; less so SC) that have way more transplants and in-migration from the northeast than anywhere else in the South, except maybe Florida, which is sui generis.

That's true, in the sense that SC whites are about 25% Democratic, as opposed to AL whites which are about 12%. But certainly given past history there is very little reason to believe that any national Democrat will win much more than 25% or so  of such whites (Sheheen got about 28%), and especially not registered Republican whites, which vote about 97% for the Republican.

[Brittain33]

It matters perhaps that these are states (VA, NC, and GA; less so SC) that have way more transplants and in-migration from the northeast than anywhere else in the South, except maybe Florida, which is sui generis.

That's true, in the sense that SC whites are about 25% Democratic, as opposed to AL whites which are about 12%. But certainly given past history there is very little reason to believe that any national Democrat will win much more than 25% or so  of such whites (Sheheen got about 28%), and especially not registered Republican whites, which vote about 97% for the Republican.

Your right, my response was out of context and didn't address what you were talking about.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

South Carolina is the ultimate fool's gold for Democrats, just because it has a significant amount of transplants doesn't mean it's going to trend away from the GOP. The transplants going to SC are attracted by different amenities/ideals than the ones going towards North Carolina, Virginia or even Georgia. Myrtle Beach is the ultimate example of a transplant community, yet it's ultra GOP. Golf and seaside tourism won't turn South Carolina blue.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Myrtle Beach? Really? You're way off on SC politics.

[Badger]

Myrtle Beach? Really? You're way off on SC politics.

Myrtle Beach isn't ultra GOP? Or at least Horry County?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Myrtle Beach? Really? You're way off on SC politics.

Myrtle Beach isn't ultra GOP? Or at least Horry County?

DRA says 41% Obama, with a 12% Black population. Looks pretty strongly GOP to me, especially for an area filled with transplants.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Myrtle Beach? Really? You're way off on SC politics.

Myrtle Beach isn't ultra GOP? Or at least Horry County?

It is, but the way he classified it as some fast growing transplant area was puzzling to me. It's redneck riviera!

[Smash255]

Myrtle Beach? Really? You're way off on SC politics.

Myrtle Beach isn't ultra GOP? Or at least Horry County?

It is, but the way he classified it as some fast growing transplant area was puzzling to me. It's redneck riviera!

York County, and the northern neck of the Lancaster Panhandle (which is where my parents moved to) is a much more of a transplant area than Myrtle Beach

[memphis]

Myrtle Beach? Really? You're way off on SC politics.

Myrtle Beach isn't ultra GOP? Or at least Horry County?

It is, but the way he classified it as some fast growing transplant area was puzzling to me. It's redneck riviera!

Per the new census, Horry grew 37% from 2000 to 2010. I'm no South Carolina expert, but those people came from somewhere.