PPP TX: Obama Leads Perry

[Keystone Phil]

Badger, so far you have made your argument with a Sesame Street YouTube video and a sarcastic picture. Read that last sentence over and let it sink in. Maybe then you'll realize why your "argument" isn't winning me over.

You thought I was suggesting a bias and jumped to call me out on it. When my correction to your misunderstanding was made, you didn't want to accept it. Childish as usual.

[Tender Branson]

Obama vs. Romney:

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

How Popular is Paul in Texas? His lead is suprising.

Obama vs. Romney:

No way NH goes Republican but Georgia doesnt.

[The Mikado]

The numbers are unsurprising, given Texas polling traditions.  Those 10% or so "undecided" always break overwhelmingly Republican (and tend to be people that hate Perry but would never vote for a Democrat).  That means that the race always looks closer than it actually is.

Obama could get 45%, or even, in a really good election, 47%, but no more.  Those last few points are the killer.

[Badger]

Badger, so far you have made your argument with a Sesame Street YouTube video and a sarcastic picture. Read that last sentence over and let it sink in. Maybe then you'll realize why your "argument" isn't winning me over.

You thought I was suggesting a bias and jumped to call me out on it. When my correction to your misunderstanding was made, you didn't want to accept it. Childish as usual.

Since first lurking here 5 years ago, I'm sadly convinced by experience that someone "winning you over" with argument is futile. I make points and responses primarily for the edification and sharing with other viewers. As for your own responses, I simply think of it more as, well......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9cV5i3IgWc&feature=related


And before anyone asks: a) Yes, I agree that Spanish-style bullfighting is barbaric and cruel; and 2) no, I don't own my own pretty pink cape.

EDIT: Aaaannnddddd....my number of reported posts mysteriously increases by one.

[TheGlobalizer]

Weird poll results, but if it puts Perry back on ice, cool.

[nhmagic]

Perry is toxic, that's nothing new. It's beyond silly to accuse PPP of bias every time a Republican is behind. I mean, Obama's number isn't even that high above what he got in 2008, if they really wanted to pull something, they'd push him over 50%. The only outfit with manipulated polls is a right-wing one.

No its not beyond silly.  Any one of the republican candidates in Texas would already have a solid majority of support (50%+) over Obama within the poll.  Secondly, Obama's abysmal job approval and national economic metrics should ordinarily be reflected within state polling. My rule for PPP polls - take the result and add 3-5% to the republican candidate if its a swing, lean or red state.  With Rasmussen, add 3-5% to the democratic candidate.

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

(Deleted to accommodate Rick Perry Michelle Bachmann)...coming soon

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Pawlenty

Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons

DeMint -- South Carolina
Santorum -- Pennsylvania
Romney -- Michigan and New Hampshire
Pawlenty -- Minnesota
Thune -- South Dakota
Gingrich -- Georgia
Bachmann -- Minnesota (but I am showing her in Iowa instead because of Pawlenty)
Palin -- Arizona (she is allegedly moving there) and Alaska
Perry -- Texas
Cain -- Georgia (but I will show him in North Carolina)
Ron Paul -- Texas (but I will show him in Oklahoma for this purpose
Johnson -- New Mexico
Huntsman -- Utah (but I will show him in Idaho instead because of Romney)



In view of the execrable performance of  Rick Perry in a matchup poll against President Obama in Texas, a firm R state, I am not going to bother showing a map for him. I am going to add Michelle Bachmann instead.  She over Cain? Michelle Bachmann has legislative experience.  

[Niemeyerite]

Badger, so far you have made your argument with a Sesame Street YouTube video and a sarcastic picture. Read that last sentence over and let it sink in. Maybe then you'll realize why your "argument" isn't winning me over.

You thought I was suggesting a bias and jumped to call me out on it. When my correction to your misunderstanding was made, you didn't want to accept it. Childish as usual.

Since first lurking here 5 years ago, I'm sadly convinced by experience that someone "winning you over" with argument is futile. I make points and responses primarily for the edification and sharing with other viewers. As for your own responses, I simply think of it more as, well......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9cV5i3IgWc&feature=related


And before anyone asks: a) Yes, I agree that Spanish-style bullfighting is barbaric and cruel; and 2) no, I don't own my own pretty pink cape.

EDIT: Aaaannnddddd....my number of reported posts mysteriously increases by one.

This is the most funny discussion ever hahaha...
I hate bullfights.
And, PPP is the best pollster.

[HST1948]

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

(Deleted to accommodate Rick Perry Michelle Bachmann)...coming soon

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Pawlenty

Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons

DeMint -- South Carolina
Santorum -- Pennsylvania
Romney -- Michigan and New Hampshire
Pawlenty -- Minnesota
Thune -- South Dakota
Gingrich -- Georgia
Bachmann -- Minnesota (but I am showing her in Iowa instead because of Pawlenty)
Palin -- Arizona (she is allegedly moving there) and Alaska
Perry -- Texas
Cain -- Georgia (but I will show him in North Carolina)
Ron Paul -- Texas (but I will show him in Oklahoma for this purpose
Johnson -- New Mexico

In view of the execrable performance of  Rick Perry in a matchup poll against President Obama in Texas, a firm R state, I am not going to bother showing a map for him. I am going to add Michelle Bachmann instead.  She over Cain? Michelle Bachmann has legislative experience.  

Just a quick correction on your Pawlenty map.  You have Texas colored Red, the poll showed Pawlenty beating Obama by 1 point in TX.

[pbrower2a]

Correction made.

In any event, I see the virtual tie between Obama and Pawlenty and I see someone who can't seal the deal on a state usually reliably-R. It probably doesn't help to be a lapsed Catholic in Texas, which except for Louisiana is probably the most Catholic state that President Obama is likely to lose in 2012.

Far more significant to President Obama than the 38 electoral votes of Texas, which he probably loses by a mid-single-digit margin, will be an open Senate seat.   I still think that if he makes some serious campaign appearances on behalf of a Democratic nominee for the Senate and the Democrats set up a strong GOTV effort, Texas could be a double-whammy for the GOP.

Oh -- Texas is not so strong R that it will vote for a lunatic-fringe candidate.   

[Ben Romney]

pbrower you forgot AK to make red
there was a poll just a few days ago Obama leading Palin in AK

[krazen1211]

Yawn. This is the same PPP garbage that showed this.

http://austin.ynn.com/content/headlines/271992/latest-poll-shows-perry-white-tie

They found that 43 percent of people surveyed support Republican Governor Rick Perry, while 43 percent back Democratic challenger Bill White. The margin of error is just over 4 percent.

[King]

Yawn. This is the same PPP garbage that showed this.

http://austin.ynn.com/content/headlines/271992/latest-poll-shows-perry-white-tie

They found that 43 percent of people surveyed support Republican Governor Rick Perry, while 43 percent back Democratic challenger Bill White. The margin of error is just over 4 percent.

In June 2010. Care to look up their poll right before election day?

[krazen1211]

Yawn. This is the same PPP garbage that showed this.

http://austin.ynn.com/content/headlines/271992/latest-poll-shows-perry-white-tie

They found that 43 percent of people surveyed support Republican Governor Rick Perry, while 43 percent back Democratic challenger Bill White. The margin of error is just over 4 percent.

In June 2010. Care to look up their poll right before election day?

Is the one posted here right before election day? Nope! It's the same trash. As it stands, they had Perry over White 53/44. He won 55/42.

[King]

Yawn. This is the same PPP garbage that showed this.

http://austin.ynn.com/content/headlines/271992/latest-poll-shows-perry-white-tie

They found that 43 percent of people surveyed support Republican Governor Rick Perry, while 43 percent back Democratic challenger Bill White. The margin of error is just over 4 percent.

In June 2010. Care to look up their poll right before election day?

Is the one posted here right before election day? Nope! It's the same trash. As it stands, they had Perry over White 53/44. He won 55/42.

So after solid campaigning in a Republican year, Perry can break away from an opponent the quality of Bill White and PPP will accurately portray it.  Good observation.

[krazen1211]

So after solid campaigning in a Republican year, undecideds will naturally break Republican in a Republican state.  Good observation.

Corrected.

[pbrower2a]

pbrower you forgot AK to make red
there was a poll just a few days ago Obama leading Palin in AK

Correction made.

[Brittain33]

I don't think people would disagree if you said that it's 1+ year before the election so the numbers can certainly change by Election Day, or that undecideds in a state like Texas will end up coming home to the Republican. I just don't see how this becomes an indictment of PPP.

[Rollback]

I wouldn't say that Barack would actually win Texas over Perry, but it is understandable that it is this close considering Perry has betrayed conservatives numerous times during his governorship by increasing taxes, acquiescing to the amnesty lobby, as well as supporting Rudy Giuliani of all people. He only talks a good game.

[krazen1211]

I don't think people would disagree if you said that it's 1+ year before the election so the numbers can certainly change by Election Day, or that undecideds in a state like Texas will end up coming home to the Republican. I just don't see how this becomes an indictment of PPP.

PPP merely happens to be the guy posting this poll. But almost all pollsters made the same mistake; Perry was leading by 6-8 for much of the cycle.

We see the same thing in New Jersey in reverse. Some were saying how Corzine would get 38% of the vote. Nope, he got 44% and would have gotten 47-48% definitely in a 2 party race.

People for some reason forget such things every 2 years.

[DrScholl]

Is the one posted here right before election day? Nope! It's the same trash. As it stands, they had Perry over White 53/44. He won 55/42.

It's a couple of points difference, but still very close to the final result.

Let's talk about Rasmussen's poll showing the Republican in the Hawaii Senate race trailing by just 13. That was far more suspect than anything PPP has ever released.

[pbrower2a]

I wouldn't say that Barack would actually win Texas over Perry, but it is understandable that it is this close considering Perry has betrayed conservatives numerous times during his governorship by increasing taxes, acquiescing to the amnesty lobby, as well as supporting Rudy Giuliani of all people. He only talks a good game.

Even Texans have their limits on the tolerance of political wackiness of a Governor. It may be a lower threshold than in Florida or Ohio, let alone Michigan or Wisconsin. The lunatic fringe is bad news anywhere.

You can be satisfied that Mitt Romney would win Texas, and that Mike Huckabee would have. But that the margin by which President Obama would lose to Mitt Romney is much smaller than Democrats have lost by there in 2000, 2004, and 2008 suggests big trouble for the Republican nominee nationwide.

More significant is what can happen to Republicans in races other than the Presidency in Texas. President Obama doesn't need to win Texas, a state that no Democratic nominee for President has won since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Carter needed Texas, which shows how much Presidential elections have changed since 1976.

[The Mikado]

Again, it's not surprising that Obama and Perry can be tied around 45%/45% or so, because the remaining 10% of Texas voters are shy Republicans.  Obama is already polling around his ceiling in TX (45-46 or so).  He can do that well, but no better, as all those undecideds, as much as they hate Perry, will reluctantly vote for him anyway because he's not a Democrat.