June Jobs Report

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Second, the “Household” survey is available in both “Not seasonally adjusted,” and “Seasonally adjusted “ formats.  Both are “official.”  In fact, the annual data is only available in the Not seasonally adjusted format.

I love the way you make it sound like the seasonally adjusted data is somehow sinister because the BLS doesn't issue seasonally adjusted annual data.  Of course, why anyone would want to seasonally adjust data that covers all the seasons at once, much less how one would do such a useless thing is left unsaid.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So I guess Mitt Romney will be president now.

Why?  The main appeal Romney has for GOP primary voters is his supposed "electability" in the general election.  If the economy is such that most of the potential nominees can win the general election then he loses that supposed advantage.  Romney is 2012's Giuliani.  Rudy was leading the primary polls four years ago because he was "electable", but he sank like lead balloon once the campaign season began in earnest and the primary voters decided that electability was not their principal concern.  I expect the same to happen with Mitt.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Blaming the June job numbers on the debt ceiling issue is largely bogus, since practically no one thought in June that the debt ceiling wouldn't be raised.  It might have a noticeable effect on the July numbers depending on how close to the deadline they get. The increase in energy prices and shrinking government payrolls are the major factors for June.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Blaming the June job numbers on the debt ceiling issue is largely bogus, since practically no one thought in June that the debt ceiling wouldn't be raised.  It might have a noticeable effect on the July numbers depending on how close to the deadline they get. The increase in energy prices and shrinking government payrolls are the major factors for June.

I think the general economic mess regarding the deficit is a big issue actually.

at 11% of GDP they have to do something fairly soon.... it's not knowing what the "something" is that is causing a lot of uncertainty.

July it just got worse as the debt limit issue came up hard in people's faces, but the debt ceiling is just the current crisis associated with long term structural deficit.

Long term you are right, but there wasn't enough concern about this in June to cause much of a short term shift in employment decisions.  This month it will, and the impact will be greater the longer the debt veiling circus drags on.