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| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginia)
| | |-+  Generic Congressional Ballot Megathread
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Author Topic: Generic Congressional Ballot Megathread  (Read 17250 times)
Spenstar
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« Reply #125 on: September 21, 2017, 09:03:16 pm »
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According to 538's generic ballot average, the GOP just made a pretty big gain. Dem lead is now just shy of 8 points, lower than it's been in a while
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« Reply #126 on: September 21, 2017, 09:18:19 pm »
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According to 538's generic ballot average, the GOP just made a pretty big gain. Dem lead is now just shy of 8 points, lower than it's been in a while

Could it be because Trump's approvals stopped cratering....due to him working with the other party? That would be ironic.
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« Reply #127 on: September 24, 2017, 11:48:01 am »

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/24/politics/cnn-poll-republican-party-approval/
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/09/24/poll.-.parties.and.2018.pdf.pdf

Quote
Democrats hold enthusiasm edge as 2018 nears

Turning toward next year's midterm elections, Democrats appear to have an enthusiasm advantage as the party tries to win back majority control of the House and Senate. Democrats need to gain 24 seats to retake the House and three in the Senate, though party is facing limited pick-up opportunities there this cycle.

Nearly a quarter of Democrats -- 24 % -- say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting next year, with another 20% saying they are very enthusiastic. Just 14% of Republicans say they are extremely enthusiastic, with another 20% saying they are very enthusiastic about voting.

Democrats also lead in the generic congressional ballot among all Americans by nine percentage points, 50% to 41%, though the midterm electorate traditionally leans more Republican.

Generic poll (CNN): 50 - 41 (D)


-

edit: interestingly enough, based on the age cross tabs, a lot of this lead seems to be based on traditional Republican-leaning groups: older, whiter and more educated. Voters $50k+ seem to leaning more Democratic than in 2014, but will probably still be majority Republican, just less so.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2017, 12:06:30 pm by Virginia »Logged

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« Reply #128 on: September 27, 2017, 09:03:13 pm »
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http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/24/politics/cnn-poll-republican-party-approval/
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/09/24/poll.-.parties.and.2018.pdf.pdf

Quote
Democrats hold enthusiasm edge as 2018 nears

Turning toward next year's midterm elections, Democrats appear to have an enthusiasm advantage as the party tries to win back majority control of the House and Senate. Democrats need to gain 24 seats to retake the House and three in the Senate, though party is facing limited pick-up opportunities there this cycle.

Nearly a quarter of Democrats -- 24 % -- say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting next year, with another 20% saying they are very enthusiastic. Just 14% of Republicans say they are extremely enthusiastic, with another 20% saying they are very enthusiastic about voting.

Democrats also lead in the generic congressional ballot among all Americans by nine percentage points, 50% to 41%, though the midterm electorate traditionally leans more Republican.

Generic poll (CNN): 50 - 41 (D)


-

edit: interestingly enough, based on the age cross tabs, a lot of this lead seems to be based on traditional Republican-leaning groups: older, whiter and more educated. Voters $50k+ seem to leaning more Democratic than in 2014, but will probably still be majority Republican, just less so.
In this same poll, here is the excitement on voting for Congress...

Among registered Democrats:
*Extremely Enthusiastic - 24% (highest since first collection)
*Very Enthusiastic - 20% (fourth highest after Oct. 30-Nov 1, 2009, March 25-28, 2010 & Oct. 5-7, 2010)
*Somewhat Enthusiastic - 29% (lowest level since first collection)
*Not too Enthusiastic - 14% (lowest since March 25-28, 2010)
*Not at all Enthusiastic - 10% (third lowest after Oct. 30-Nov 1, 2009 & March 25-28, 2010)

Among registered Republicans:
*Extremely Enthusiastic - 14% (lowest since first collection)
*Very Enthusiastic - 20% (pretty consistent with previous years; fourth lowest)
*Somewhat Enthusiastic - 31% (second highest after Oct 30-Nov 1, 2009)
*Not too Enthusiastic - 18% (tied for second highest which was Sept 4-7; highest was Dec. 16-19)
*Not at all Enthusiastic - 14% (fourth highest)

Total enthusiasm (just using Extremely Enthusiastic + Very Enthusiastic) for Democrats is the highest it has ever been for them although it doesn't beat the peak total enthusiasm from Republicans. During Oct 5-7, 2010 and May 21-23, 2010 it was a total of 54% for Registered Republicans (although they were more likely to be extremely enthusiastic in October) compared to 44% for the Democrats right now, at least from CNN.
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« Reply #129 on: September 28, 2017, 01:06:46 pm »
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Generally speaking if there was an election for Congress today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate from your district?

48% Democrat
37% Republican

PPP
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« Reply #130 on: September 28, 2017, 01:17:23 pm »

Quinnipiac University national poll

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2487

47 - 38 (D)


Some cross tabs:

Quote
White college graduate: 49% - 42%
White non-college: 49% - 36%

18 - 34 years old: 50% - 30% (D)
35 - 49 years old: 49% - 36% (D)
50 - 64 years old: 44% - 44% (R/D)
65+ years old: 46% - 42% (D)

Funky Hispanic numbers:
43% - 38% (D)

Heavy erosion among white college graduates and seniors. Also a return to the norm of +20 point blowouts among young people, except this time we might actually see the 30 - 44 year old demographic vote for Democrats with similar margins of 18 - 29 year olds. That would be a first, as all those Obama-era Millennials/gen xers have grown up.

Also I'd note that I don't think this is the first time Q showed those kinds of numbers for Hispanics. Wondering if that is just a quirk for this poll or if Republicans might pull in larger-than-normal support next year?

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Edit: PPP shows 59% - 16% for Hispanics in the poll posted above, so maybe just something funny with Q.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2017, 01:20:06 pm by Virginia »Logged

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« Reply #131 on: September 28, 2017, 02:40:59 pm »
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Quinnipiac University national poll

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2487

47 - 38 (D)


Some cross tabs:

Quote
White college graduate: 49% - 42%
White non-college: 49% - 36%

18 - 34 years old: 50% - 30% (D)
35 - 49 years old: 49% - 36% (D)
50 - 64 years old: 44% - 44% (R/D)
65+ years old: 46% - 42% (D)

Funky Hispanic numbers:
43% - 38% (D)

Heavy erosion among white college graduates and seniors. Also a return to the norm of +20 point blowouts among young people, except this time we might actually see the 30 - 44 year old demographic vote for Democrats with similar margins of 18 - 29 year olds. That would be a first, as all those Obama-era Millennials/gen xers have grown up.

Also I'd note that I don't think this is the first time Q showed those kinds of numbers for Hispanics. Wondering if that is just a quirk for this poll or if Republicans might pull in larger-than-normal support next year?

-

Edit: PPP shows 59% - 16% for Hispanics in the poll posted above, so maybe just something funny with Q.

What's the Hispanic subsample size in Q?  I looked for it in the data, but couldn't find it.
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« Reply #132 on: September 28, 2017, 04:18:45 pm »
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Generally speaking if there was an election for Congress today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate from your district?

48% Democrat
37% Republican

PPP

Beautiful!
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« Reply #133 on: October 17, 2017, 07:02:12 am »
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CNN, Oct 12-15

Among adults: 51 D, 37 R

Among RV: 54 D, 38 R
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« Reply #134 on: October 17, 2017, 07:27:24 am »
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CNN, Oct 12-15

Among adults: 51 D, 37 R

Among RV: 54 D, 38 R

I was going to post this. Sucks for them...

Let's say undecideds 2:4:1 ish R:I:D. That would be like 56-42-2. What would that give us?
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« Reply #135 on: October 17, 2017, 07:31:27 am »
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CNN, Oct 12-15

Among adults: 51 D, 37 R

Among RV: 54 D, 38 R

I was going to post this. Sucks for them...

Let's say undecideds 2:4:1 ish R:I:D. That would be like 56-42-2. What would that give us?

Speaker Pelosi.
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« Reply #136 on: October 17, 2017, 08:09:24 am »
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CNN, Oct 12-15

Among adults: 51 D, 37 R

Among RV: 54 D, 38 R

I was going to post this. Sucks for them...

Let's say undecideds 2:4:1 ish R:I:D. That would be like 56-42-2. What would that give us?

Speaker Pelosi.

Tied Senate.
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« Reply #137 on: October 17, 2017, 09:07:54 am »
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CNN, Oct 12-15

Among adults: 51 D, 37 R

Among RV: 54 D, 38 R

I was going to post this. Sucks for them...

Let's say undecideds 2:4:1 ish R:I:D. That would be like 56-42-2. What would that give us?

Speaker Pelosi.

Tied Senate.

I'm not sure much can be meaningfully inferred for the Senate from the GCB though. That's all down to individual races. Though I guess a landslide like this would suggest a general D wave.
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« Reply #138 on: October 17, 2017, 09:23:28 am »
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A bit of an outlier, but the GOP is ****ed in 2018.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #139 on: October 17, 2017, 09:36:43 am »

Unless there is a complete civil war, Republicans will come home and close that gap some.
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« Reply #140 on: October 17, 2017, 10:52:03 am »
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Yeah, the Republicans are royally screwed in 2018. Trump's cooperation with the democrats makes it worse for them too. People will vote for them because it's the only way to get things done.
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« Reply #141 on: October 17, 2017, 12:45:59 pm »

Do you guys think this thread should stay stickied?  It's worth having a megathread for generic polls but I'm not so sure anymore if it needs to stay at the top, or perhaps it could be re-stickied closer to election time next year.

?
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« Reply #142 on: October 17, 2017, 01:22:15 pm »
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Personally I don't think it needs to be stickied until sometime next year, but it won't bother me if it remains.
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« Reply #143 on: October 17, 2017, 01:48:19 pm »
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Do you guys think this thread should stay stickied?  It's worth having a megathread for generic polls but I'm not so sure anymore if it needs to stay at the top, or perhaps it could be re-stickied closer to election time next year.

?

If you're looking to clean up the sticky section, I think a good idea might be to sticky a catch-all thread that simply acts as a host to threads about 2018 as a whole. That includes this GCB thread, the fundraising thread, the recruitment thread, etc. The special election threads should also only be stickied when there is an actual special election in the near future. It's your call though.
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« Reply #144 on: October 17, 2017, 02:50:12 pm »
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I have to say I am very skeptical of the CNN poll. It seems to have overestimated democrats from 2006-2014 (2008 and 2016 wasn't that off). While the republicans are in a poor position, I doubt they're down by anywhere close to 16. According to this poll, republicans were down by 15 in nov 2006, and then ended up only losing by 8. Granted, a +8 win in 2018 makes it likely that the democrats take back the house, but it's nowhere near a landslide like the CNN polls suggest.
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« Reply #145 on: October 17, 2017, 03:10:46 pm »
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Don't count your chickens before they hatch. At this point in 2013 Dems were crushing it in the generic ballot polls. 2 months before the 2008 election McCain was ahead. 2 weeks before the 2016 election Hillary was a shoo in. A lot can change in a year.
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