Missouri's Record Is Amazing

[HoopsCubs]

I'm sure many of you are aware of this, but for those who are not, here is a remarkable data point I just read about last week:

In the last 25 Presidential elections (1904-2000), the candidate who had the most votes in Missouri, has won the Presidency in 24 of those 25 elections.

The only exception: 1952 when Adlai Stevenson got the most votes in Missouri, but still lost the election to Dwight Eisenhower.

Talk about your Bellwether with a capital B, bolded and underlined!

HoopsCubs

[Dave from Michigan]

very interesting hopefully the record will continue when Bush wins the state and the election in 2004

[HoopsCubs]

very interesting hopefully the record will continue when Bush wins the state and the election in 2004

Being from the other party, of course, I am hoping that the trend is not 24 of 25, but actually 12 out of every of 13 (24 of 26)!  This is the year!

[Nym90]

Slight correction--it was actually 1956 in which Stevenson won Missouri, not 1952.

[opebo]

Yes Missouri has long been considered the utimate bellweather, and I think it will hold true this time.  Though Mo has been trending slightly more Republican over the last 15-20 years, which makes a Bush victory in MO coupled with a national loss a *lot* more likely than a Dem. victory there as part of a national loss.

[Inmate Trump]

Al Gore won Missouri in the 2000 primary but lost the presidency.

George Bush will win the Republican primary in Missouri this election year b/c he'll have no main challenger.

[KEmperor]

Interesting, quite an impressive record.

[7,052,770]

very interesting hopefully the record will continue when Bush wins the state and the election in 2004

Being from the other party, of course, I am hoping that the trend is not 24 of 25, but actually 12 out of every of 13 (24 of 26)!  This is the year!

I hope Kerry (or other Dem) wins MO and the presidency, continuing its Bellwhetherness, actually.

[Gustaf]

I think it's the regional position, in between the South and the Mid-West, since that's where the election is usually decided. Ohio is another such state, it has only been wrong twice, 1960 voting for Nixon and 1944, voting for Dewey. It's all about regional position.

[jravnsbo]

MO-- I still think Bond wins his senate seat here and GOP will pick up Gov mansion with Blunt, which will help Bush.

Still favors GOP.

[opebo]

MO-- I still think Bond wins his senate seat here and GOP will pick up Gov mansion with Blunt, which will help Bush.

Still favors GOP.

Oh Bond is in, no doubts.  Blunt, probably also, but I'm most sure about Bond. BTW who are they running against him?

[minionofmidas]

MO-- I still think Bond wins his senate seat here and GOP will pick up Gov mansion with Blunt, which will help Bush.

Still favors GOP.

Oh Bond is in, no doubts.  Blunt, probably also, but I'm most sure about Bond. BTW who are they running against him?

I've taken a look at a few prediction sites and Bond is one of those cases where they are sure but not quite sure (like Barbara Boxer on the other side of the aisle, and I think for similar reasons).

[opebo]

MO-- I still think Bond wins his senate seat here and GOP will pick up Gov mansion with Blunt, which will help Bush.

Still favors GOP.

Oh Bond is in, no doubts.  Blunt, probably also, but I'm most sure about Bond. BTW who are they running against him?

I've taken a look at a few prediction sites and Bond is one of those cases where they are sure but not quite sure (like Barbara Boxer on the other side of the aisle, and I think for similar reasons).

Well, I think they're just playing it safe.  I'm perfectly willing to predict a Boxer victory in CA.  But I guess I see the point that neither is say a Bennet, Shumer, Crapo, or Dodd - re-eletion is not certain, just highly likely.

[Huckleberry Finn]

Delaware was also bellwether state until year 2000 when Gore won it with overwhelming majority. Last time when national loser won in Delaware was 1948 when Dewey won most states of East Coast.

In Nevada national winner has won almost always since  1912. Exception was 1976 when Ford won it. It is  interesting to see who will win there in this year.

[minionofmidas]

MO-- I still think Bond wins his senate seat here and GOP will pick up Gov mansion with Blunt, which will help Bush.

Still favors GOP.

Oh Bond is in, no doubts.  Blunt, probably also, but I'm most sure about Bond. BTW who are they running against him?

I've taken a look at a few prediction sites and Bond is one of those cases where they are sure but not quite sure (like Barbara Boxer on the other side of the aisle, and I think for similar reasons).

Well, I think they're just playing it safe.  I'm perfectly willing to predict a Boxer victory in CA.  But I guess I see the point that neither is say a Bennet, Shumer, Crapo, or Dodd - re-eletion is not certain, just highly likely.

Yeah, the point is: They win. But they win with lesser margins than other people of the same party in the same year.
I read at Sabato that Bond has won (I think) 4 statewide races in MO in his career so far and lost one. 2:1 for Governor, 2:0 for the Senate. (Or maybe there's one victory more, I'm not sure right now) Yet he never polled more than 53%. Boxer too had a clearly smaller margin than Feinstein in 92, a smaller one than Davis in 98.

[Gustaf]

Delaware was also bellwether state until year 2000 when Gore won it with overwhelming majority. Last time when national loser won in Delaware was 1948 when Dewey won most states of East Coast.

In Nevada national winner has won almost always since  1912. Exception was 1976 when Ford won it. It is  interesting to see who will win there in this year.

Delaware, Missouri, Ohio, Nevada...there are quite a few of these. It's all about regional position, imo.

[SingingAnalyst]

I noticed that too. In 2000 of course MO did not vote with the popular vote winner. In 2004 it did, and in 2008 and 2012 it did not. Many believe MO is lost to Dems but I don't agree.