New Mexico

[TheGlobalizer]

It's those same native born hispanics that are so up in arms about Arizona's immigration policies.

Because it has heavy profiling aspects that effect non-Mexican citizens.  New Mexico will vote for a candidate who supports large walls, barbed wire, citizenship to attend public schools, and deportation of all illegals.  They won't vote for one who advocates officers asking for citizenship status on "suspicion" like Arizona.

All I'm saying is that if the GOP hard liners have their way with more legislation not neccessarily identical but similar to Arizona's, even if it's just espoused, it will cause this state to tip drastically. I don't think New Mexico is there yet, but given 4 of the last 5 elections and the state's demographics it leans Democrat and has 4 of its 5 members of Congress from that party. In a California and Illinois both went Republican every presidential year from 1968-1988 but haven't gone that way since and are now a lost cause. I think New Mexico could be heading the same direction.

NM's delegation is blue because the GOP here overreaches with bad candidates and the Dems don't.  Local issues/connections can flip either Senate seat or NM-1.

I don't think the state GOP delegation has enough pull to pursue Arizona-style policies, the state houses are much bluer than the state is on a national level.  Hell, they couldn't even get a bill passed blocking driver's licenses to undocumented aliens, much less a racial profiling bill that would profile almost everyone in the goddamn state.

Ironically, the main reason NM wouldn't become a Dem paradise is because it is already so thoroughly Hispanic.  Identity politics fall flat.

[Devils30]

NM may be close but it is clearly a D leaning state in a close election

[minionofmidas]

New Mexico has a majority native Hispanic population. 

Of course, New Mexico has a lot of Mexicans as well. Fewer than the native New Mexicans, of course, but still substantial. And, except for Albuquerque and to some degree Santa Fe, living in totally different parts of the state.

[pbrower2a]

GOP doesnt need NM, should focus on states that are safe GOP or lean GOP.  Try to get back the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington)

They must win back all of the following:

1. Florida
2. Ohio
3. Virginia
4. One of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Mexico.

If they can meet these conditions they have won Indiana, NE-02, and North Carolina, and kept the President from winning Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, and maybe Kentucky and/or Tennessee.

The Republicans can also win if they win Pennsylvania as a substitute for Ohio, Virginia, or one of the states in Category 4, Pennsylvania and one of the states in Category 4 as a substitute for Florida, or all four of the states in Category 4 as a substitute for Florida.  (Well, rule out Pennsylvania as a practical substitute for Ohio or Virginia because Ohio and Virginia are both more R than Pennsylvania and otherwise similar).