Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?

[Platypus]

I doubt it. Once this is over, there'll be two years where Abbott has to come up with policy, which is definitely not his strong suit. He can't keep on this issue for that long, I don't think, unless it really does destroy our economy (and it won't).

As far as the ALP leadership goes, the brand is damaged enough without a spill. If there were a spill, Rudd wouldn't be chosen by the same people who hated him enough to oust him last year. Crean would be an excellent choice, but wouldn't be chosen even if it did, somehow, happen.

Oh, and she's clearly, clearly preferably to Abbott.

[Platypus]

Meh, I think she'll loos much of her unpopularity once the carbon tax debate is over, but I think that the Coalition will still be the natural favorites in the 2013 election, although a lot can change in two years!

She's doomed. I'd be surprised if the current parliament even lasts its full term.

Why would that be exactly?

Because the carbon tax debate isn't likely to go away anytime soon, and even if it does, the Coalition could run a campaign pointing out how Gillard was dishonest in her past statements about implementing a carbon tax in the first place.

The thing is, it is going away soon. Certainly before the next election. Once it does go, Abbott actually has to start presenting policy. So far almost every time he has done so, his fundings are wrong, it's unpopular, it contradicts other policy or it's proven to be ineffective, so Gillard is happy to wait for that to bite him on the arse.

The biggest concern for Gillard would be the Liberals getting a brain and dumping Abbott after the Carbon tax debate is over. Putting in someone who the doctor's wives could actually vote for, as well as Cranbourne Man.

[Platypus]

he was incredibly lucky to get in in the first place, and he knows he's unlikely to have the same luck again in any case, so he's pushing to get everything he wants in his time in parliament done ASAP. If Abbott were able to guarantee passage of the pokies reform measures, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Wilkie backed him. It isn't likely, of course, but certainly a possibility.

For Labor to win (which is certainly still a very real possibility), it needs to go for the legislative jugular and start governing. Force the BoPpers to support it or oppose it, but keep presenting legislation with real, popular support and effects. At the very least, policies which truly reflect their base. Start with the social policies - gay marriage, something for the indigenous groups, a humane asylum policy, raise the disability pension etc; and enthuse the base. You can't win Western Sydney and SE Queensland off Abbott with 'conservative-lite', but if you can sure up the 45% of seats that are naturally labor you go into the election with the ability to focus money and attention on say 8 seats for government. As it is, there is no enthusiasm at all for Labor, and while they won't lose seats like Gellibrand or Batman, they're tracking badly to lose places like Lyons and Lilley largely due to apathy. Give those seats a genuine enthusiasm about Labor and they'll automatically reject Abbott, who is entirely outside the ideological range for either place.

Australians don't want to vote in the coalition, particularly under Abbott, but they see absolutely no reason to vote for Labor. Give the left a reason to vote for Labor and then focus on the swing seats in a genuine contest between left and right, not Julia and Tony.

[Platypus]

Gillard has been quite sucessful with all the various events of the past fortnight - Queen, CHOGM, QANTAS, G20 - and it sort of proves the point that when they ignore the Liberals and she just becomes the PM, she does a good job.

Obviously there are still those who have attacked her, but I feel this last fortnight has been the beginning of her resurgence. Put forward a clear policy on poker machines and she'll be set.

[Platypus]

Re: Smid and Polnut

Smid is almost never a total hack for the Liberals, but to suggest that Labor did worse out of it is just ridiculous. The Liberals were unorganised, hypocritical, and secretive about knowledge that could have helped prevent this well in advance.

I don't think it was a great moment in ALP leadership, but I do think the government handled it well enough in the circumstances, and I definitely think the Liberals completely missed the mark, as they are in the process of doing with Superannuation. I don't want to get too excited, but I get the feeling the Libs are getting incredibly frustrated with life.


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As far as Gillard's untouchability...way too early to say that yet, but I would say with a straight face that she is the more likely winner of the next election.

[Platypus]

PM JBish?



Hmmn, lemme think about it.





































HAHAHAHAHAHA no.

[Platypus]

Senators can be PM, and it's happened before, with Gorton iirc. Or McEwen? One of the coalition 60s/70s gang.

Either way, it is highly, highly unlikely that she would be the leader. I haven't seen a specific poll on her favourability ratings, and I doubt one exists, but I'd expect the numbers would be very similar to the government's in general.