Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?

[redcommander]

She's doomed. I'd be surprised if the current parliament even lasts its full term.

[redcommander]

Meh, I think she'll loos much of her unpopularity once the carbon tax debate is over, but I think that the Coalition will still be the natural favorites in the 2013 election, although a lot can change in two years!

She's doomed. I'd be surprised if the current parliament even lasts its full term.

Why would that be exactly?

Because the carbon tax debate isn't likely to go away anytime soon, and even if it does, the Coalition could run a campaign pointing out how Gillard was dishonest in her past statements about implementing a carbon tax in the first place.

[redcommander]

I personally think that's the best way to get the ALP back in the driver's seat - play on public unease over Abbott and actually have the balls to do something really dramatic.  

That only ever works if the government hasn't crossed the threshold between "unpopular" and "toxic". Is the ALP toxic or just unpopular?

Worth noting that British Labour was about 25 points adrift two years out from an election, they "only" lost by 7 after unease began to bubble about Cameron.

Bob Brown isn't a Nick Clegg though. I don't see potential change voters voting for him over the Coalition. The Greens if anything make it more difficult for Labor to win against Abbott. Of course they could always take another chance, and bring Rudd back.

[redcommander]

Why hasn't anyone challenged Abbott? The Coalition has plenty of people who aren't... well as far right as him.

[redcommander]

Why is Abbott viewed so unfavorably, and yet leading Gillard? Is it his social conservatism that turns people off?