Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?

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http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/07/17/nielsen-61-39-to-coalition/

It can't get much worse for her, although she's far more preferable than Abbott.

If there was to be a leadership spill, who'd step up to the plate? Would Rudd be asked to have another go or would it be Wayne Swan or somebody else?

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Preferable to Abbott? The Nielson poll has the opposite, as did the previous Newspoll.

As in, my own opinion

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I wouldn't be so sure of it. I hate to always bring up Sweden 2010, but here the goverment were trailing the opposition by 17% two years before the election. Tony Abbott appears to have the makings of a Mona Sahlin, and I'm not saying that only because they're both increadibly ugly.

Was the right as unpopular as the ALP are though? In terms of Mona Sahlin, Ed Miliband will probably end up being another 'her'.

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Mind you, by locking himself into a rock-solid position he's shown his lack of political instinct and I think has guaranteed his losing however the election happens... in order to survive in politics (despite all of those 'liar and flip-flop' taunts) is to be flexible - and he's about as inflexible as it comes.

The flip side that you describe would be to pull a Clegg, again guaranteeing defeat.

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he was incredibly lucky to get in in the first place, and he knows he's unlikely to have the same luck again in any case, so he's pushing to get everything he wants in his time in parliament done ASAP. If Abbott were able to guarantee passage of the pokies reform measures, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Wilkie backed him. It isn't likely, of course, but certainly a possibility.

For Labor to win (which is certainly still a very real possibility), it needs to go for the legislative jugular and start governing. Force the BoPpers to support it or oppose it, but keep presenting legislation with real, popular support and effects. At the very least, policies which truly reflect their base. Start with the social policies - gay marriage, something for the indigenous groups, a humane asylum policy, raise the disability pension etc; and enthuse the base. You can't win Western Sydney and SE Queensland off Abbott with 'conservative-lite', but if you can sure up the 45% of seats that are naturally labor you go into the election with the ability to focus money and attention on say 8 seats for government. As it is, there is no enthusiasm at all for Labor, and while they won't lose seats like Gellibrand or Batman, they're tracking badly to lose places like Lyons and Lilley largely due to apathy. Give those seats a genuine enthusiasm about Labor and they'll automatically reject Abbott, who is entirely outside the ideological range for either place.

Australians don't want to vote in the coalition, particularly under Abbott, but they see absolutely no reason to vote for Labor. Give the left a reason to vote for Labor and then focus on the swing seats in a genuine contest between left and right, not Julia and Tony.

Alas, will the ALP ever follow such sound advise? I doubt it...

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I personally think that's the best way to get the ALP back in the driver's seat - play on public unease over Abbott and actually have the balls to do something really dramatic.  

That only ever works if the government hasn't crossed the threshold between "unpopular" and "toxic". Is the ALP toxic or just unpopular?

Worth noting that British Labour was about 25 points adrift two years out from an election, they "only" lost by 7 after unease began to bubble about Cameron.

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Why is the Coalition advantage slowly eroding? Dead cat's bounce for Lab or something else?

A bit, and the fact that Tony Abbott's hated too. The last few weeks have gone well for the government as well, not taking any bait from the Coalition, the Queen's visit for example.

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If the ALP were to consistently poll at 47-48 on 2PP, going into the election, is that really the point where a good campaign could clinge them a win?

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I see two outcomes: either UK Tories from 1993 onward, where open civil war erupts and they run out the clock, or the Canadian Liberals in the mid-2000s: fatally damaged but only lose narrowly when the votes are tallied with the real implosion coming later.

Or Aus '93?

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Sorry, another question from a clueless American: If the ALP is kicked out of power, would Penny Wong be considered a viable candidate to be the party's next leader, or are her approval ratings as bad as Gillard's?

Senators can't be PM, if Aus is anything like other Westminster model countries.

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So now the Speaker's the king maker? Does Aus have the convention that we do of the Speaker having to vote for the status quo (ergo, support the government in a confidence motion) should there be a tie on the floor of the House?

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I don't think Labour are dead and buried for the next election as I think that Tony Abbott (similar to Don Brash in New Zealand circa 2004/2005) appeals to the lowest common denominater well but annoys enough people with his hardline stances that he'll find it very difficult to win an election (by my distant viewer understanding 2010 was close due to the recent sacking of Rudd and unpopular Labour State Governments in New South Wales and Queensland). I'm not sure who the better leader is between Rudd and Gillard for Labour as Rudd is more charismatic although Gillard has 'Home State Advantage' in 2 States (South Australia and Victoria) as well as possibly winning more votes among female voters.

I have a feeling Abbot will win, but by a much narrower margin than what current polls would suggest.  I'm not in Australia and have never been there, but I'm just guessing.  And he'll probably be a very unpopular PM who will easily be beaten by Labor in 2016.  Just a (probably wrong) prediction.

I'd be shocked if Tony lasted a whole term as PM without being knifed, but then again, he's been underestimated before.

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Why is Abbott viewed so unfavorably, and yet leading Gillard? Is it his social conservatism that turns people off?

His social conservatism is by-far out of step with Australia.
He was a pretty controversial Health Minister until Howard, from what I gather.
He's pretty gaffe prone.
He's not seen to have a plan.