Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?

[RogueBeaver]

What's the likely outcome here? Does Rudd have the balls to pull a Heseltine? Anyhoo, I don't see it salvaging Lab's prospects despite a dead cat's polling bounce.

[RogueBeaver]

Why is the Coalition advantage slowly eroding? Dead cat's bounce for Lab or something else?

[RogueBeaver]

I see two outcomes: either UK Tories from 1993 onward, where open civil war erupts and they run out the clock, or the Canadian Liberals in the mid-2000s: fatally damaged but only lose narrowly when the votes are tallied with the real implosion coming later.

[RogueBeaver]

I see two outcomes: either UK Tories from 1993 onward, where open civil war erupts and they run out the clock, or the Canadian Liberals in the mid-2000s: fatally damaged but only lose narrowly when the votes are tallied with the real implosion coming later.

Or Aus '93?

The rule is that you get one waiver post-coup before a long stay in opposition. Oz 1993, UK 1992, Canada 2004. That waiver was used last year. Among the many differences, Keating probably didn't have openly bubbling intraparty dissent to the point of detailed coup rumors.

[RogueBeaver]

Give her credit. Instead of a series of combustions a la John Major, she's managing CFIT. Abbott should just keep downing the popcorn and let this play out.

[RogueBeaver]

Hell yeah.