Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?

[Peter the Lefty]

Based on polls, it seems unthinkable that Julia Gillard will have been replaced by the end of 2013, either through a Liberal victory in the election, or some coup against her putting Kevin Rudd back in his old job.  Either way, it would take a MASSIVE poll comeback for her to stay on.  If the ALP is decimated at the next election the way polls suggest, who might end up leading the party in opposition?  I guess it'll have to be Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, or Nicola Roxon because I can't possibly imagine it being someone from the left of the party like Penny Wong, Jenny Macklin, or Chris Evans, given Gillard's record. 

[Peter the Lefty]

You mistake thinking the ALP is really about left and right... because in the end, they want a face that will argue their points and win them the election.

I mean, Gillard was installed by the right factions....

The Australian voting public is just as fickle as the US one... can the ALP win the next election... perhaps... but can the Coalition lose it? Absolutely. I think the ALP poll numbers will re-bound a little, as the carbon price issue has been slightly neutralised for some.

And Hugh is absolutely right, Abbott is the Libs Achilles's Heel - he's a reason why Rudd lost his mojo and his job - but he's also the reason they didn't win enough seats last year... people just don't like him... consider that there's about a 17-20% gap in Primary votes and about 16-18% TPP gap... yet Abbott is only JUST ahead of Gillard as preferred PM. He's an outstanding Opposition Leader, he goes for the jugular at every opportunity and will just be as negative as possible. But when you're in a minority government situation, the term 'Alternative PM' really matters.  And it seems to me that Gillard's big drop in popularity is more about disappointment than genuine dislike for most.

Consider this argument, I have been harassing friends relatively high up in the ALP for weeks over this... imagine Gillard making this comment...

"Under our carbon pricing arrangement, we have made sure that almost 80% of households will be fully compensated for any related price increases, in fact, with increased pensions, family assistance and tax cuts, many will be financially better off under this arrangement.

Tony Abbott says he will deliver those benefits and bring the Budget into surplus without either the super-profits mining tax or the carbon price on our biggest carbon emitters.

How?

As usual, he's making promises to the Australian people, without a clear plan as to how he's going to do it. He says he'll sack hard-working Australians in the public service, up to 12,000... but even that wouldn't even reach 5% of the money he'd need to keep all of his promises. Either he's confused in his maths, he's lying to us or we will see a bloodbath of vital services and programs cut... so I ask all Australians to ask Tony Abbott, how will you do this? and if you're not lying to us... what are you going to cut? What vital services will be on the chopping block? "

I personally think that's the best way to get the ALP back in the driver's seat - play on public unease over Abbott and actually have the balls to do something really dramatic.  

So who do you see as people who could lead the ALP after 2013, assuming what we all expect to happen will happen? 

[Peter the Lefty]

Sorry, another question from a clueless American: If the ALP is kicked out of power, would Penny Wong be considered a viable candidate to be the party's next leader, or are her approval ratings as bad as Gillard's?

[Peter the Lefty]

I'm amazed that this thread isn't being swarmed with new posts after Rudd's resignation today.  He announced in a Washington DC hotel at a middle-of-the-night press conference that he's resigning as Foreign Minister over Gillard not rebuking Simon Crean's comment that he "wasn't a team player.". And Gillard's throwing open her leadership.  Rudd's now going back to Australia.  It's on. 

[Peter the Lefty]

I don't think Labour are dead and buried for the next election as I think that Tony Abbott (similar to Don Brash in New Zealand circa 2004/2005) appeals to the lowest common denominater well but annoys enough people with his hardline stances that he'll find it very difficult to win an election (by my distant viewer understanding 2010 was close due to the recent sacking of Rudd and unpopular Labour State Governments in New South Wales and Queensland). I'm not sure who the better leader is between Rudd and Gillard for Labour as Rudd is more charismatic although Gillard has 'Home State Advantage' in 2 States (South Australia and Victoria) as well as possibly winning more votes among female voters.

I have a feeling Abbot will win, but by a much narrower margin than what current polls would suggest.  I'm not in Australia and have never been there, but I'm just guessing.  And he'll probably be a very unpopular PM who will easily be beaten by Labor in 2016.  Just a (probably wrong) prediction.