Is Julia Gillard a dead woman walking?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Depends if anyone else wants the job right now; might make more sense to wait until the fuss over the carbon tax thing has blown over just a little bit. Even if we're talking in terms of (say) weeks rather than months.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mona Sahlin was/is a party hack who got the top job because no one else wanted it. Say whatever you like about Abbott and Miliband (and isn't it odd to have them mentioned in the same breath?), that's not them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Almost certainly the professional advisors would be advising something else, yes. Alas.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Worth noting that British Labour was about 25 points adrift two years out from an election, they "only" lost by 7 after unease began to bubble about Cameron.

In part, though, that dramatic narrowing was because they adopted the sort of tactics Hugh is suggesting, even if they weren't taken to their logical conclusion.