2016: Sen. Jim Matheson (D) vs. Sen. Scott Brown (R)

[Skill and Chance]

Assume that Obama gets re-elected and there is an anti-Mormon scandal involving the GOP nominee that sweeps Matheson into the UT senate seat in 2012.  Matheson wins by a wide margin and Obama actually gets 45% in Utah.  Brown wins a full term by a comfortable margin in MA.

Brown shifts to a barely pro-life position and Matheson shifts to become barely pro-choice.

Could this finally break up the Red State/Blue State divide? 

[Niemeyerite]

Not sure about this.. but it may be something like this:

[King]

Brown would win easily.

[Skill and Chance]

Here's my guess:

This is what the state of play would look like in October, assuming a fairly neutral year: