Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 19, 2019, 10:06:40 pm
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  2012 Presidential Predictions (General)
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Latest 2012 Predictions (Highest Scores)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
dporceddu (D-WA)MapProfile 10-20 2 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
Firefly (D-FL)MapProfile 11-05 1 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
rosin (I-DNK)MapProfile 11-06 1 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 1
brown73 (D-VA)MapProfile 06-08 1 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
Angry_Weasel (D-FL)MapProfile 09-19 2 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 2
boyohio02 (O-OH)Map 10-11 1 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 0
brandon.herren (I-CA)Map 10-27 22 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 0
franzl (D-DEU)MapProfile 10-30 2 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
HockeyDude (I-NJ)MapProfile 10-30 1 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 0
Izixs (D-NH)MapProfile 11-02 4 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 5
Latest 2012 Predictions (Most Recent Entries)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
AntonioV (D-CA)MapProfile 11-06 15 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 0
theprezmex (D-MEX)MapProfile 11-06 9 R +65 244 (+65) 294 (-65) 0 (0) 0
wjvenner (R-VA)Map 11-06 1 R +102 281 (+102) 257 (-102) 0 (0) 0
DantheRoman (I-MA)MapProfile 11-06 1 R +69 248 (+69) 290 (-69) 0 (0) 0
benconstine (D-VA)MapProfile 11-06 9 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
cp (G-QC)MapProfile 11-06 1 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
MilesC56 (D-VA)MapProfile 11-06 61 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 2
texasgurl24 (D-JPN)MapProfile 11-06 9 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 0
kylesammin (R-PA)Map 11-06 11 R +116 295 (+116) 243 (-116) 0 (0) 0
redefeatbush004 (D-MT)Map 11-06 13 R +75 254 (+75) 284 (-75) 0 (0) 0
Latest 2012 Predictions (Most Recent Comments)
User Map Prof Date Ver. Pickup Rep Dem Ind #C
Colbert (O-FRA)
by President_91 on 2018-09-08 @ 17:10:28
MapProfile 03-06 1 R +90 269 (+90) 269 (-90) 0 (0) 2
rosin (I-DNK)
by RileyUhr on 2016-10-21 @ 16:47:13
MapProfile 11-06 1 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 1
Angry_Weasel (D-FL)
by Angry_Weasel on 2014-10-24 @ 21:36:43
MapProfile 09-19 2 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 2
MOPolitico (I-MO)
by MOPolitico on 2014-09-22 @ 11:25:44
MapProfile 08-04 4 R +44 223 (+44) 315 (-44) 0 (0) 1
Americanadian (D-ON)
by Flo on 2013-10-18 @ 17:39:27
Map 09-08 8 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 7
MilesC56 (D-VA)
by MilesC56 on 2013-08-06 @ 14:21:43
MapProfile 11-06 61 R +56 235 (+56) 303 (-56) 0 (0) 2
nkpolitics1279 (D-MA)
by Ickey415 on 2013-05-23 @ 12:40:59
MapProfile 11-05 111 R +82 261 (+82) 277 (-82) 0 (0) 23
WhyteRain (I-TX)
by thornestorm on 2012-12-24 @ 02:40:13
MapProfile 11-06 9 R +90 269 (+90) 269 (-90) 0 (0) 9
thornestorm (G-CA)
by thornestorm on 2012-12-02 @ 23:02:43
Map 08-12 9 R +11 190 (+11) 348 (-11) 0 (0) 11
KS21 (I-KS)
by KS21 on 2012-11-18 @ 15:13:37
MapProfile 11-06 28 R +27 206 (+27) 332 (-27) 0 (0) 4
Latest Discussion Topics
Author Topic: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General)  (Read 30621 times)
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,317
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 20, 2011, 08:57:49 pm »
« edited: September 09, 2011, 10:48:32 am by Dave Leip »

Hi,
I've enabled the 2012 General Election Presidential Prediction Script here

Enjoy and let me know if you find any bugs.

the Primary Predictions for the Republican 2012 primary season will be available after the calendar gets nailed down.

Enjoy,
Dave

Compiled Prediction Map
Img
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,364
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2011, 10:23:48 pm »

Cheesy  You're awesome.
Logged
Free Palestine
FallenMorgan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,040
United States
Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -10.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2011, 10:38:01 pm »

Will there also be prediction maps for Senate and Governatorial elections?
Logged
Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,969
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2011, 03:22:00 am »

Cheesy  You're awesome.
Logged
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,317
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2011, 06:04:02 am »

Will there also be prediction maps for Senate and Governatorial elections?

Yes - although I usually create those later as the candidates become more settled.
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,945
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 21, 2011, 12:13:04 pm »

One small thing I noticed - When I tried updating my prediction, when I got to the review page, the paragraphs for the analysis are all bunched together and it does some funky things. For example:

Quote
My first prediction! Smiley It\'ll be interesting to look back on this prediction after the election and see how close I was - my bet is there will be one state I\'m completely off on. Let\'s see which it is. Wink\r\n\r\nThis scenario is Romney vs. Obama. I discounted running mates because right now I really have no clue who Romney would choose. I\'d be shocked if this election weren\'t a toss-up, but I just don\'t see economic conditions improving enough for Obama to be reelected. The economy debate will be huge for Romney.\r\n\r\nThe state I think will change the most is New Hampshire. Romney is a great candidate for this state, and is already spending resources there. Polls currently have him ahead outside the margin of error, and I expect him to be outside the margin of error on election day there as well.\r\n \r\nNot sure how close some states will be, like Washington and Arizona, so I just put this as
Logged
Snowstalker's Last Stand
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,308
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2011, 04:11:39 pm »

Making my map for if the election were held today; I'll wait until later for my final prediction.
Logged
Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35,104
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.45, S: -1.57

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2011, 05:54:52 pm »

I love you, Dave!
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,340
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 21, 2011, 06:37:03 pm »

Thank you Dave! Smiley
Logged
Free Palestine
FallenMorgan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,040
United States
Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -10.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 21, 2011, 07:08:09 pm »

Will there also be prediction maps for Senate and Governatorial elections?

Yes - although I usually create those later as the candidates become more settled.

Cool.

All hail Dave!
Logged
Dave Leip
leip
Administrator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,317
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 21, 2011, 10:32:58 pm »

One small thing I noticed - When I tried updating my prediction, when I got to the review page, the paragraphs for the analysis are all bunched together and it does some funky things. For example:

Quote
My first prediction! Smiley It\'ll be interesting to look back on this prediction after the election and see how close I was - my bet is there will be one state I\'m completely off on. Let\'s see which it is. Wink\r\n\r\nThis scenario is Romney vs. Obama. I discounted running mates because right now I really have no clue who Romney would choose. I\'d be shocked if this election weren\'t a toss-up, but I just don\'t see economic conditions improving enough for Obama to be reelected. The economy debate will be huge for Romney.\r\n\r\nThe state I think will change the most is New Hampshire. Romney is a great candidate for this state, and is already spending resources there. Polls currently have him ahead outside the margin of error, and I expect him to be outside the margin of error on election day there as well.\r\n \r\nNot sure how close some states will be, like Washington and Arizona, so I just put this as

Hi - I don't see that - what browser/os are you using?

Also, I noticed that comments were disabled for everyone - I have removed the disable.

Enjoy,
Dave
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,945
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 22, 2011, 12:07:55 pm »

I was using Firefox. I'll try Internet Explorer and see if it works.
Logged
Paul Kemp
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,244
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 22, 2011, 12:17:35 pm »
« Edited: July 22, 2011, 12:25:00 pm by Dick Whitman »

And on the 20th day of July, He returned.
Logged
WhyteRain
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 949
Political Matrix
E: 6.19, S: -2.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 15, 2011, 08:07:11 am »

How do I get my prediction to show up here?
Logged
WhyteRain
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 949
Political Matrix
E: 6.19, S: -2.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 15, 2011, 08:24:45 am »

Well, my prediction map is pretty easy to imagine, since I start with the 2004 results.  So here it is:

Give Obama all of the states won by Kerry in 2004, then subtract these six:  Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Maine.

That will give Obama 191 electoral votes; the other 347 will go to the Republican.

As far as I can see, that's the most optimistic (for the GOP) prediction at this site.
Logged
nkpatel1279
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,714
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: December 17, 2011, 01:51:37 am »

In his 2012 re-election bid, Obama wins all the Kerry 2004 states minus New Hampshire,Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Obama narrowly holds onto Oregon,Minnesota,Wisconsin,plus Iowa,Colorado,Nevada,and New Mexico. 232ev. To get to 270ev, Obama wins Michigan and Pennsylvania-narrowly plus either Virginia,Ohio,or North Carolina.
Logged
Anthony Davis is Awesome
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,015
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: December 17, 2011, 12:35:38 pm »

Come down to NV,CO, and OH.
Logged
Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,969
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: December 18, 2011, 03:13:14 pm »

Surely Obama will win Ohio with less than 40%... Roll Eyes

Some people really don't think.
Logged
MIKESOWELL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 375
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: February 07, 2012, 08:21:20 pm »

I still see Obama winning at least 330 electoral votes.
Logged
Mechaman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,820
Jamaica
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: March 06, 2012, 01:45:59 pm »

Man some of these predictions make me sad.

Obama winning Arkansas?
Republicans winning Maine 2?

Really?
Logged
WhyteRain
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 949
Political Matrix
E: 6.19, S: -2.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: May 16, 2012, 08:38:30 am »

In his 2012 re-election bid, Obama wins all the Kerry 2004 states minus New Hampshire,Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Obama narrowly holds onto Oregon,Minnesota,Wisconsin,plus Iowa,Colorado,Nevada,and New Mexico. 232ev. To get to 270ev, Obama wins Michigan and Pennsylvania-narrowly plus either Virginia,Ohio,or North Carolina.


My prediction, which is on here somewhere (I can't find it) also uses Kerry's 2004 performance:  Obama wins all of Kerry's states but six:  Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine.  Result:  Obama gets 191 EV.
Logged
20PETE20
20RP12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,192
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: May 16, 2012, 03:16:49 pm »

I still see Obama winning at least 330 electoral votes.

Please, extrapolate.
Logged
Solidarity Forever
Alfred F. Jones
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,828
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: May 28, 2012, 12:47:47 pm »

In his 2012 re-election bid, Obama wins all the Kerry 2004 states minus New Hampshire,Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Obama narrowly holds onto Oregon,Minnesota,Wisconsin,plus Iowa,Colorado,Nevada,and New Mexico. 232ev. To get to 270ev, Obama wins Michigan and Pennsylvania-narrowly plus either Virginia,Ohio,or North Carolina.


My prediction, which is on here somewhere (I can't find it) also uses Kerry's 2004 performance:  Obama wins all of Kerry's states but six:  Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine.  Result:  Obama gets 191 EV.
What evidence do you have that Romney will win OR, MN, and/or ME? I can see NH, PA, and maybe WI, but unless Europe collapses, Romney won't win in a landslide (or at all).
Logged
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,758
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: June 08, 2012, 01:42:06 am »

I think I'll start doing my commentary on which forum predictions are most susceptible to change again.

As of 8 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

Alphabetical Order:
Colorado: 11 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Florida: 5 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R
Missouri: 18 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 7 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 17 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 10 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 3 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 15 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 11 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
North Dakota: 3 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 5 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R
New Hampshire: 7 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Virginia: 8 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
Nevada: 10 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Colorado: 11 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
South Carolina: 11 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Ohio: 15 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Mexico: 17 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Missouri: 18 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Logged
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,758
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: June 08, 2012, 11:22:49 pm »

As of 9 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

Alphabetical Order:
Colorado: 13 changes (+2) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Florida: 5 changes (NC) to go from 40% R to 50% R
Missouri: 19 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: 8 changes (+1) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 18 changes (+1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 9 changes (-1) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 4 changes (+1) to go from Strong R to Lean R
Ohio: 17 changes (+2) to go from 40% D to 50% D
South Carolina: 8 changes (-3) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 7 changes (-1) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
North Dakota: 4 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Florida: 5 changes to go from 40% R to 50% R
Virginia: 7 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 8 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
South Carolina: 8 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Nevada: 9 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Colorado: 13 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
Ohio: 17 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Mexico: 18 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D
Missouri: 19 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC