Romney v. McCain

[Jacobtm]

Looking at McCain's results from 2008, I think his results suffered from a number of specific factors including his age, Obamamania, hatred for Bush, and Sarah Palin.

Because these factors will be absent from the 2012 election, Romney (if he is the nominee) can improve on McCain's results in several places, especially ones that swung strongly towards Obama from the '04 results.

However, Romney may also lose some Conservative support for being Romney.

So:

Nevada saw a huge swing towards Obama, I think Romney's mormonism will help him there, though I don't know if it will be enough to win.

In NM, I can't see why Romney would do better than McCain, and his religion may well be a problem with many catholic hispanic voters. NM could really become a solidly Democratic state after wobbling back and forth for so long.

Where do you see Romney getting significantly worse/better results than McCain?