A Possible Obama vs. Romney Map?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'm not buying PA swings just yet. I think Romney has a real shot at NH, Florida, Ohio and NC. If the economy slips back into a recession, he wins more states than we expect at the moment.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Wow, everyone on here seems to think Obama could win Ohio while losing PA and MI. I know the polls seem to say that at the moment, but there really is no plausible scenario where that will happen. I think a lot of people are taking the polls too seriously at this point.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

All and all, it's not a bad prediction. A couple of things to consider:

In 2009 Republicans took firm control of Virginia state government. In fact every Republican running for statewide office garnered at least 60% of the vote. What's more, President Obama's poll numbers remain lackluster in the state. I think we can move it safely into the Republican column.

Lackluster approval ratings =/= "safe" Republican.

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How well are the Republican governors of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin doing again?

[TJ in Oregon]

How well are the Republican governors of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin doing again?

How is the Democratic governor of Illinois doing? The rust belt hates almost all politicians right now. Kasich and Walker have done some things to upset people but the other two really haven't.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Snyder is probably worse than Kasich.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

How well are the Republican governors of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin doing again?

How is the Democratic governor of Illinois doing? The rust belt hates almost all politicians right now. Kasich and Walker have done some things to upset people but the other two really haven't.

Brady would be doing far worse than Quinn is right now.

[pbrower2a]

Snyder is probably worse than Kasich.

Maybe not as bad a political figure -- not as abrasive and dictatorial -- but less likely to win re-election due to the one big demographic difference between Michigan and Wisconsin: Michigan has more blacks. It's the difference between Greater Detroit and Greater Milwaukee in size.

[pbrower2a]

Is this a possible map for the general?

Obama vs. Romney

I know there are a few strange things. Noticeably Ohio going for Obama and Pennsylvania going for Romney. But I figure it's possible given the current polling. I would think Arizona would be the deciding state and though I think it's possible (and perhaps likely) that it would vote for Romney in the above scenario...it may just perhaps pick the winner...let me know your thoughts...

Recent partisan polls that showed the President losing Michigan and Florida are to be ignored. The most recent poll of Pennsylvania was taken at a recent nadir for support for the President, and that showed the President winning against everyone but Romney, but tying Romney. If he must campaign in Pennsylvania, then the President will, and his campaign will flood the state with campaign ads, and he will win the state.     

Nevada looked close throughout 2008 and went decidedly for Obama. The Obama campaign, should it do what it did in 2008, will flood the state with volunteers from California; some of them will change their legal residence (which is legal) and sway the state. 

Iowa and New Hampshire are now getting much attention from Republican pols who have disagreed on about everything except that President Obama is the reincarnation of Nero, Attila the Hun, Dracula, and Ivan the Terrible combined. Once the early caucuses and primaries are over and Republican candidates are no longer dominating the political spotlight, the states go back to normal with their recent leans D.

It's only one electoral vote, but the most recent configuration of NE-02 (Greater Omaha) went for President Obama and was last polled (this year) even more supportive of the President. To be sure, the district could be reconfigured to lose some Democratic voters and gain some Republican voters -- but enough to swing the district?

Nobody knows a d@mned thing about Indiana now except that it went for President Obama in 2008 and is probably less D than Ohio by about 3%. If the Republicans tea-bag Senator Lugar successfully, then this state will be seen as fair game for Democrats, and you can expect a few campaign appearances by the President for the Democratic nominee for the Senate and for Democrats running for Congress. But that is a big 'if'. Until I see something I am going to treat Indiana as a blank.

I don't see President Obama winning Arizona except if the retiree or near-retiree voters get scared about either Social Security or Medicare. But at that it is a shaky R, as must be Georgia and Missouri. Sure, they are only 'university' polls, and they came when nationwide support for the President was high for the time, but those suggest that Tennessee will be "shaky R" for Romney.  Kentucky usually votes with Tennessee, so it goes to the "Shaky R" category.

Finally, North Carolina has largely been either 'shaky D' or a virtual tie in Romney-Obama matchups, so I call North Carolina "shaky D". 

[5280]

That map is pro-Obama and putting too much faith into a President with poor approval ratings. I would say that your map is a flaw.

Redo it over!

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

There is no way Obama would keep North Carolina while losing Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.

[Yelnoc]

Assuming our credit rating is slashed prompting a recession that lasts from late this quarter until after the election, unemployment continues to rise, and we get an oil shock next summer that puts 2008's to shame...I would say something like the below.

[pbrower2a]

Assuming our credit rating is slashed prompting a recession that lasts from late this quarter until after the election, unemployment continues to rise, and we get an oil shock next summer that puts 2008's to shame...I would say something like the below.

Change the assumptions and you change everything. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If he loses New Jersey, he'll certainly lose Oregon and New Mexico first.

[Mehmentum]

There is no way Obama would keep North Carolina while losing Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.

I agree with you on Michigan, but Obama is performing about as well in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire in most polls as he is in North Carolina.

[California8429]

I could see it, though Colorado and Ohio would be a lighter shade

[Yelnoc]

Change the assumptions and you change everything. 

Yep.  I was in a pessimistic mood when I made that.  Still am, actually.

If he loses New Jersey, he'll certainly lose Oregon and New Mexico first.

I was thinking all three of those states were one and loss by a hair.  My guess is that New Jersey would be hit hardest by this economic catastrophe scenario, while Romney's appeal in Oregon and especially New Mexico is limited.  But this is all guesswork.

[pbrower2a]

I could see it, though Colorado and Ohio would be a lighter shade

The lighter change is to show highlighting of change from another map more than anything else. President Obama is likely to win Michigan by a larger margin  or lose by a smaller margin than Ohio or for Obama to win Michigan while losing Ohio.

I see President Obama winning Colorado by nearly 10% if he wins on a national scale as he did in 2012 as in 2008, though, with Colorado as one of the few states in which he gains any in  any state that he won by 5% or more. That is demographics more than anything else, with the 2010 election showing Colorado more D than the national average for the first time in years. I see him losing a little ground in most states that he won and gaining a little in states that he lost with little change in those that he barely won.

[5280]

2008 doesnt last forever and demographics don't always reflect the votes. Explain to me why would you vote for Obama a 2nd term when he barely done jack schit in office during his first term?

Unemployment above 9%, we're in two wars and the debt is off the charts. Obama winning a 2nd term? I take that with a grain of salt.

[Mechaman]

Oh yes, the unbeatable incumbent argument.  Where have I heard that one before?  Ah yes, now I remember:

[m4567]

Unless, there's a huge doubledip, it's hard to see Romney winning. He's the most presidential-like of the gop field, but he's not exciting, he's pretty much a republican John Kerry.

[zorkpolitics]

Obama continues to sink in approval polls, Romney has now been in the lead in at least one poll from MI, PA, IA, NH, and FL, so with this trend growing its starting to looks like a Romney blow-out.
Romney 337   Obama  201

[mondale84]

Obama continues to sink in approval polls, Romney has now been in the lead in at least one poll from MI, PA, IA, NH, and FL, so with this trend growing its starting to looks like a Romney blow-out.
Romney 337   Obama  282

??

[HST1948]

Obama continues to sink in approval polls, Romney has now been in the lead in at least one poll from MI, PA, IA, NH, and FL, so with this trend growing its starting to looks like a Romney blow-out.
Romney 337   Obama  282

??

Oh did you miss it? We annexed Iraq and Afghanistan and now have more electoral votes .

[DS0816]

There is no way Obama would keep North Carolina while losing Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.

QFT

[pbrower2a]

Obama continues to sink in approval polls, Romney has now been in the lead in at least one poll from MI, PA, IA, NH, and FL, so with this trend growing its starting to looks like a Romney blow-out.
Romney 337   Obama  282

I am surprised that he isn't sinking faster. The budget-ceiling deal is a raw deal, as it practically ensures no economic upturn for the next five years for any but the top 2% of income-grabbers.

Rasmussen has been very stable immediately after the Raw Deal.