No not really, no. MI wouldn't go for Romney before WI or OH. PA and IA are't going to go for Romney with OH and NC (especially) for Obama. Also AZ is not ready to go for a Democrat unless Obama performs better than 08 by a substantial degree, when the Hispanic population gets higher...maybe. The Kerry states that you have Romney winning, would probably imply a larger npv percent for Romney, he'd probably win the Western swing states VA and NC if he nabs both PA and MI.
Here's a map, for a close race.... What I think will happen with about the same unemployment, no major third party challenges.
Ohio and Pennsylvania tend to vote in tandem; I can see an Obama win in Ohio but loss in Pennsylvania if both states go by a few tenths of a percent.
Michigan may very well flip for Romney if the economy and unemployment continues to worsen. Wisconsin would obviously be close, by residual anger at Governor Walker (especially if he does something else stupid) could be enough to keep that state in Obama's column.
Demographic shifts could allow Obama to hold onto Virginia and even North Carolina (though the second one would have to be coupled with depressed conservative turnout, which is likely if the primaries turn into a protracted battle with Bachmann or Perry).
11% is a sizable Mormon population in Nevada when you consider they will likely make up about 1/5 of the states voters (think; voter turnout). The real swing factor, IMO, will be the economy. Nevada already has the worst unemployment situation and housing crises in the country; I don't see Obama doing well there as is.
Arizona and Iowa are the two states I can't easily explain. You could say the Hispanic vote turned against Romney, but then how did he win Nevada? Maybe if Nevada and Arizona were each one by only a few tenths of a percent like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Iowa, I don't see Romney having much appeal in at all. But hey, I could be wrong.
Over all, I would say the map is plausible but not probable.
