I think this is a fairly likely map for a close Romney win. I'd probably switch Nevada and New Hampshire but otherwise it looks right to me.
I know there are a half dozen polls out their saying the opposite, but I don't think there's any chance whatsoever of Romney winning PA and losing OH. OH and PA don't really vote in tandom anymore; PA votes for the Democrat unless it's a landslide and OH usually votes for whoever wins. It may be possible for Romney to win OH and PA (and probably MI too at that point) and have the election still be close, but OH is a more Republican state than the others mentioned. Detroit and Philly are bigger Dem vote sinks than Cleveland. That's why in a nutshell. Kasich may be unpopular, but so is ever other governor in the lower Midwest. The Rust Belt is angry at everyone right now and will be for a long time because our economy has been in shambles and bleeding jobs for 50 years. I doubt many people who weren't already going to vote for Obama anyway will have there mind changed by SB5 (Note: I am neither endorsing nor condemning SB5; there are parts I like and parts I dislike).
Oh, by the way, Obama isn't going to win Indiana unless the Republican has an epic meldown or unemployment is under 6%.
Virginia seems to be experiencing a sort of "reversion to the mean" since 2008 by electing Bob McDonell and McDonell remaining popular. Of course, Obama could still win VA but I don't think he's more likely to than any of the states colored red. The same goes for NC.
Colorado may be lost for the Republicans for a long time. There wasn't much of a 2010 resurgence there and I'm starting to doubt Romney can win it unless the election is a blowout. Nevada may be the same position as Colorado, but I think that's a little more uncertain.
