No not really, no. MI wouldn't go for Romney before WI or OH. PA and IA are't going to go for Romney with OH and NC (especially) for Obama. Also AZ is not ready to go for a Democrat unless Obama performs better than 08 by a substantial degree, when the Hispanic population gets higher...maybe. The Kerry states that you have Romney winning, would probably imply a larger npv percent for Romney, he'd probably win the Western swing states VA and NC if he nabs both PA and MI.
Here's a map, for a close race.... What I think will happen with about the same unemployment, no major third party challenges.