IA-TCJ Research: Bachmann far ahead of Pawlenty, Romney only 3rd
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  IA-TCJ Research: Bachmann far ahead of Pawlenty, Romney only 3rd
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Author Topic: IA-TCJ Research: Bachmann far ahead of Pawlenty, Romney only 3rd  (Read 1178 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 23, 2011, 10:07:54 AM »

33% Michele Bachmann
13% Tim Pawlenty
12% Mitt Romney
  7% Ron Paul
  5% Herman Cain
  4% Newt Gingrich
  2% Rick Santorum
  1% Jon Huntsman
<1% Gary Johnson
23% Undecided

1000 Likely Voters, MoE = 4%, 7/14- 7/15

http://www.theconservativejournalblog.com/2011/07/18/tcj-research-714-715-michele-bachmann-leads-iowa-caucus-mitt-romney-falls-into-third/
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2011, 10:19:02 AM »

If Romney is beaten by both Bachmann and Pawlenty in Iowa, that might be problematic for him.
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Rowan
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« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2011, 10:24:48 AM »

These guys are back? LOL.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2011, 10:34:05 AM »

wait, wait, wait. is pawlenty in double digits? really? Incredible.

this poll may be crappy.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2011, 10:43:33 AM »


As were their final 2010 polls.

They predicted:

Angle+6
Raese+5
Buck+3
Fiorina+2
Rossi+2

Tancredo+2

(they all lost to the Democrats, sometimes by wide margins)

Johnson+14
Toomey+6
Kirk+5

These guys won, but their margin is way overblown.

Coons+5
Blumenthal+5

They underestimated them by almost 5-10%.

...

Bottom line: You cannot trust TCJ. Itīs a completely crappy polling outfit.
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TeaPartyBob
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« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2011, 11:04:04 AM »

TCJ Senate polling was pretty rough last year; but then so was Rasmussen (skewed 8 to Republicans). If If remember correctly though, their House and Gubernatorial polls were spot on. I don't think you can really say they are all around crappy polls based on senate only when an established firm like Rasmussen was just as off point.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2011, 06:23:46 PM »

wait, wait, wait. is pawlenty in double digits? really? Incredible.

this poll may be crappy.

This particular poll is probably questionable.  However, Pawlenty in double digits wouldn't be that surprising.  He and Bachmann (and maybe Paul?  I forget) are the only candidates running ads in Iowa, and the most recent Iowa polls from other pollsters had Pawlenty at 7%, 8%, and 9%:

link

And that was before most of his ads ran.  10% or a bit more for T-Paw would hardly be shocking.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2011, 06:52:14 PM »

That's interesting. If Romney skips Iowa, could Pawlenty take 2nd place and make himself viable? Looks dubious, since neither New Hampshire nor South Carolina look like states where he might do well.

On the flip side, could it be worth it for Romney to make some sort of effort in Iowa just to knock Pawlenty out of the race? I would have imagined Pawlenty voters as likely to go for Romney as 2nd choice.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2011, 07:04:29 PM »

I don't think Romney can just skip Iowa. McCain could skip Iowa because he had collapsed in the polls and was no longer anywhere near front runner status. Romney is still ahead of everyone and outraising them all combined.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2011, 07:59:19 PM »

If Romney continues to have an enormous $ advantage, then he might as well throw enough resources at Iowa for 2nd place.

Btw, I just looked up the Iowa polls from Summer 2007:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?fips=19

It's remarkable how many of those polls were from fake pollsters.

Research 2000 & Strategic Vision: Subsequently revealed to be fake pollsters.
ARG, Zogby, & Insider Advantage: Perhaps not technically fake pollsters, but they might as well be.
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King
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« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2011, 10:16:53 PM »

Joke poll.  I can understand Pawlenty having 2-4% nationwide, but Iowa knows him more.  There's no way he's cracking 1 there.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2011, 11:06:52 PM »

It's not a problem, since he's skipping Iowa. Remember that McCain got something like 5% in the state.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2011, 11:09:37 PM »

It's not a problem, since he's skipping Iowa. Remember that McCain got something like 5% in the state.

For the record, Romney has not said that he's skipping Iowa.  He's only skipping the straw poll.

But he doesn't seem to be playing for first place there.  Maybe 2nd or 3rd place.  He'll probably wage a low key campaign there for a few months, and then make a decision in December as to whether it's worth continuing.
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King
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« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2011, 11:17:44 PM »

It's not a problem, since he's skipping Iowa. Remember that McCain got something like 5% in the state.

McCain got 13% actually.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2011, 03:24:35 AM »

It's not a problem, since he's skipping Iowa. Remember that McCain got something like 5% in the state.

McCain got 13% actually.

     5% is about what Giuliani got. We all know how well his campaign turned out.
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