Ohio Redistricting Contest

[minionofmidas]

A fair redistricting competition? Is this good enough to enter? If so, be my guest, people. If I'm seeing things right, only split towns are Colerain (huge township in suburban Cinci, with vastly different demographics between the eastern and western parts) and the city of Columbus. Possibly some of those dreadfully weird shaped suburbs of Columbus as well. Yeah, none in Cuyahoga. Numbered clockwise from Cincinnati.



1 (Cincinnati city) 65% White, 28% Black, 55.3% Obama. Chabot
Probably gone for Republicans, possibly not though.
2 (Cincinnaty suburbs) 87% White, 64.3% McCain. Boehner, Schmidt
Boehner gets the seat, obviously.
3 (Dayton) 76% White, 17% Black, 49.7% McCain. Turner, Austria
Turner gets the seat, and is perfectly safe even in his current more Democratic seat.
4 (Western) 92% White, 61.7% McCain. Jordan
Not much to see here
5 (North Central) 92% White, 56.4% McCain. open
Latta represents a lot of this area, and his home in Bowling Green is not far outside. He probably moves here.
6 (Toledo) 78% White, 13% Black, 60.2% Obama. Kaptur, Latta
See above re Latta
7 (West Cuyahoga - Lorain) 86% White, 55.9% Obama. open
Kucinich will want it, but I doubt he'd win the primary. Which is just as well from a democratic safety POV.
8 (Cleveland city) 50% Black, 39% White, 82.3% Obama. Fudge, Kucinich
Fudge's, obviously. 49.7% is as Black as you can get it without split towns. Draw it precinct-by-precinct and allow a crossing into Twinsburg, and you can get to over 50.0 on total population, but not VAP. That seems indeed to require branching out to Akron, which is obviously inacceptable from a CoI POV. This'll be safe for Fudge, anyways.
9 (Lake - Ashtabula - etc) 91% White, 49.7% McCain. LaTourette
Safe enough for him.
10 (Akron) 84% White, 11% Black, 55.9% Obama. Sutton, Renacci
Sutton wins.
11 (Youngstown - Steubenville) 86% White, 56.7% Obama. Ryan
Safe as houses.
12 (Canton) 92% White, 50.3% McCain. Gibbs
Loads of new territory, and not a safe seat by any measure, but he's evidently favored.
13 (Southeast) 95% White, 52.9% McCain. Johnson
Dem traditions, but should be secure barring events.
14 (South Central - Springfield) 93% White, 57.6% McCain. open
I really, really don't know where best to place the Simpsons, this seems far from ideal but better than the alternatives. (With Dayton would be best... except that doing so requires randomly chopping off Dayton suburbs.) Schmidt represents much of this territory and might run here.
15 (Columbus West) 81% White, 51.5% Obama. Stivers?
Not sure where Stivers lives; this one is much his better bet to hang on. Yeah, it's the western part of the city, not the southern one; paired with western, southern and eastern suburbs. Design due to a desire to keep the Black parts all in one seat even though I split the city, with the swingyness of this seat a curious by-product.
16 (Columbus East - Delaware) 61% White, 29% Black, 59.8% Obama. Tiberi
Tiberi is well entrenched, but he won't win this.

[minionofmidas]

Yah, they want unsplit counties, I focussed on unsplit towns. 'Specially as Ohio has a number of them that cross county lines.