2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, what happened to the three Senate Democrats who switched parties in the past year?

- Cindy Hyde-Smith won the Republican primary for Agriculture Commissioner.
- Nolan Mettetal dropped down to the House (HD-10, an open Dem seat) and won the Republican primary.
- Ezell Lee lost the Republican primary for his Senate seat.

[7,052,770]

On the other hand, 386,000 voted in the Democratic primary to 279,000 in the Republican primary, thanks to superconservative sheriffs and county officials running as Democrats.  The people who wanted to vote for them voted in the Democratic primary but surely won't be voting in the governor runoff.
I highly doubt many of those voted for DuPree.  Some of them probably voted against the black guy, or against the liberal, or just randomly (a possible explanation of how the two joke candidates combined for 17%).

I wouldn't be shocked either way, but I'm going to predict a DuPree victory in the runoff.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a map of the Dem primary. The Republican primary map wouldn't be very interesting, as Bryant won all but three counties.

[mondale84]

Here's a map of both primaries:

...these are based on AP numbers as of 5:52 PM today...

Note: Quitman County isn't reporting any numbers for the Republican primary. Not sure, if it's late in reporting or what...Also, Wilkinson County is a tie between Ron Williams and Phil Bryant at 3 votes each =P




...I'll do a primary runoff map when the 23rd rolls around...

[7,052,770]

After looking it up, Guy Shaw did win his home county, but I still have no idea who the hell he is.  No website, no information on the Internet at all.

[Del Tachi]

After looking it up, Guy Shaw did win his home county, but I still have no idea who the hell he is.  No website, no information on the Internet at all.

He is the former tax assessor of Yalabousha County, served from 1959 to 1967.  His daddy was tax assessor before him.  He is currently 83 years old (at the time of his election in '59, he was one of the youngest county-wide officials in the state) and resides in Coffeeville.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Seriously?

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[Meeker]

Awesome.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Gatewood Galbraith is officially on the ballot in Kentucky.

[Del Tachi]

MS run-off elections are tomorrow.

Predicting a narrow Luckett victory, something like 53-47

[7,052,770]

I'm going to predict a 54-46 DuPree win, due to white conservative Republicans not voting in the Democratic runoffs, which I think will have a bigger effect than a traditionally low black turnout.

Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked with even a 20-point win by either candidate.  It's all a shot in the dark.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Runoff results, if anyone cares.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

DuPree is up 58-42 so far. About 20% in.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

DuPree wins. Currently at 56-44 with about 80% in.

[7,052,770]

I'm going to predict a 54-46 DuPree win

I'm on fire

[Tender Branson]

I'm going to predict a 54-46 DuPree win

I'm on fire

I also predicted a 54-46 DuPree win.

BTW: Does anyone know if he's the first Black gubernatorial nominee of any MS party or have there been African-Amiercan nominees before ?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Primary and runoff maps to compare:



The grey county in the latter map was tied.

[tpfkaw]

BTW: Does anyone know if he's the first Black gubernatorial nominee of any MS party or have there been African-Amiercan nominees before ?

Looks like it (although maybe there was an African-American GOP nominee during their wilderness years - all those guys getting 1-10% are rather obscure...).  Needless to say, his victory makes Bryant's election assured.

EDIT:

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2011/08/mississippi-democrats-elect-first-black-gubernatorial-nominee/1

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The "in modern times" seems to suggest that there was one a long time ago (the GOP wilderness years, like I suggested?).

[7,052,770]

I'm guessing it's a reference to Medgar Evers' brother in 1971, but I thought he was an Independent.

[tmthforu94]

David Williams must be a bad campaign, or just not a people person. Or maybe Beshear is just ridiculously popular. I'm just surprised Williams hasn't been able to make this a race yet.

[Meeker]

I thought "in modern times" was another way of saying "since Reconstruction".

[7,052,770]

Supposedly Bryant and Barbour don't really get along.  To the point that Barbour wouldn't mind seeing Bryant lose.  It won't really matter, but don't expect to see Barbour out campaigning for Bryant.

[Tender Branson]

Do you think we'll ever get a poll out of MS again ?

How many polls were there in the 2007 election ? One from a shady outfit ?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There probably won't be any more polls of MS. That's the problem with having off-off-year elections; if they're not going to be competitive, nobody cares whatsoever. Even the noncompetitive ones during midterms got polled a few times.

Of course, Louisiana is even worse; since the Democrats still don't have a candidate (this woman doesn't count), there are zero public polls of the state.

[Meeker]

You don't really need a poll in Mississippi. The Democrat will finish in the upper 30's or low 40's and the Republican in the upper 50's or low 60's.