2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV

[Meeker]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/WV_Governor_1004.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Meeker]

The final early vote total was 56,638 (57% D, 35% R, 8% I).

[Tender Branson]

I´m a bit sceptical of this poll. I now predict a 54.3-44.8 win for Tomblin.

D (55%): Tomblin 80% - 44.0%
R (35%): Tomblin 15% - 5.3%
I (10%): Tomblin 50% - 5.0%
............................................
Total: Tomblin 54.3%

[Meeker]

I think the third parties will get at least 2% combined. If I had to predict I'd say something like 50-48-2.

ETA: To put things in perspective, the two third party candidates in 2010 got 3.13% of the vote. This time around there's three of them.

[Tender Branson]

I think the third parties will get at least 2% combined. If I had to predict I'd say something like 50-48-2.

That's correct. I`ve just looked up the WV results from previous years.

Therefore I predict a 53.2 to 44.6 win for Tomblin now.

[Torie]

I´m a bit sceptical of this poll. I now predict a 54.3-44.8 win for Tomblin.

D (55%): Tomblin 80% - 44.0%
R (35%): Tomblin 15% - 5.3%
I (10%): Tomblin 50% - 5.0%
............................................
Total: Tomblin 54.3%

Why are you shaving the numbers down from the poll?  Just curious. And why are you assuming the same day vote will replicate the early vote in registration percentages?

[Tender Branson]

I´m a bit sceptical of this poll. I now predict a 54.3-44.8 win for Tomblin.

D (55%): Tomblin 80% - 44.0%
R (35%): Tomblin 15% - 5.3%
I (10%): Tomblin 50% - 5.0%
............................................
Total: Tomblin 54.3%

Why are you shaving the numbers down from the poll?  Just curious. And why are you assuming the same day vote will replicate the early vote in registration percentages?

It's what PPP used (55-35-10).

As for the Democratic percentage Maloney will get: I don't see him getting twice the share that Raese got last year. And there's a good chunk of Independents undecided, I guess there's a split.

[rbt48]

I predict Maloney 49.1, Tomblin 47.9, others 3.0%.

[Torie]

I´m a bit sceptical of this poll. I now predict a 54.3-44.8 win for Tomblin.

D (55%): Tomblin 80% - 44.0%
R (35%): Tomblin 15% - 5.3%
I (10%): Tomblin 50% - 5.0%
............................................
Total: Tomblin 54.3%

Why are you shaving the numbers down from the poll?  Just curious. And why are you assuming the same day vote will replicate the early vote in registration percentages?

It's what PPP used (55-35-10).

As for the Democratic percentage Maloney will get: I don't see him getting twice the share that Raese got last year. And there's a good chunk of Independents undecided, I guess there's a split.

OK, but Manchin was a very strong candidate, and Raese a weak one.  Unless you think that gap is replicated this time, that is not how I would analyze it. Also the environment has deteriorated for Dems in WV since 2010 into the absolute disaster zone. We shall see.

[Meeker]

Keep in mind that if Tomblin loses tomorrow he's still President of the State Senate. I'm sure he and Governor Maloney would get along swell.

[Shilly]

My prediction, Tomblin by 4.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

50-48 Tomblin is my guess.

[redcommander]

I´m a bit sceptical of this poll. I now predict a 54.3-44.8 win for Tomblin.

D (55%): Tomblin 80% - 44.0%
R (35%): Tomblin 15% - 5.3%
I (10%): Tomblin 50% - 5.0%
............................................
Total: Tomblin 54.3%

What is skeptical about it? Is it really surprising Tomblin is doing so badly when Obama's favorables are in the high 20's in the state? PPP has been pretty accurate recently with its special election polling. I would guess a narrow 1-2 point victory for Maloney tomorrow.

[Meeker]

So all the Democrats are predicting a Tomblin victory and all the Republicans a Maloney victory. Shocking.

[Talleyrand]

I predict 50-49 Maloney victory tomorrow.

[Miles]

I say 51-47 Tomblin.

[Keystone Phil]

53% to 45% for Tomblin.

[Torie]

So all the Democrats are predicting a Tomblin victory and all the Republicans a Maloney victory. Shocking.

Actually I was smart enough to make no prediction, because I have no idea.   And give Phil "credit." See the post immediately above.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I sort of wish I'd been following this, but you have to make priorities about such things sometimes (sigh). Look forward to the maps anyway.

Oh, and wrt to any early vote statistics, there are certain patterns to look for in WV and they can sometimes be quite useful for predictive purposes.

[Torie]

I sort of wish I'd been following this, but you have to make priorities about such things sometimes (sigh). Look forward to the maps anyway.

Oh, and wrt to any early vote statistics, there are certain patterns to look for in WV and they can sometimes be quite useful for predictive purposes.

And what pray tell are the patterns?  Which counties correlate with each other? Or is this a Sam Spade thingy? 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I sort of wish I'd been following this, but you have to make priorities about such things sometimes (sigh). Look forward to the maps anyway.

Oh, and wrt to any early vote statistics, there are certain patterns to look for in WV and they can sometimes be quite useful for predictive purposes.

And what pray tell are the patterns?  Which counties correlate with each other? Or is this a Sam Spade thingy? 

You basically need to see how solid Democratic turnout is in their various strongholds and whether Republican turnout is (relatively) good in the more populated areas (rather than their strongholds as such, if that makes sense). And also to see if there are any signs of funny surges of enthusiasm. You can then edit this for candidates. Tomblin will need relatively good (for a comedy turnout election) turnout in the southern coalfield counties, for example, because that's where he's known.

[Torie]

OK, a turnout issue. That makes particular sense in a special election. Thanks.

[Shilly]

I sort of wish I'd been following this, but you have to make priorities about such things sometimes (sigh). Look forward to the maps anyway.

Oh, and wrt to any early vote statistics, there are certain patterns to look for in WV and they can sometimes be quite useful for predictive purposes.

And what pray tell are the patterns?  Which counties correlate with each other? Or is this a Sam Spade thingy? 

You basically need to see how solid Democratic turnout is in their various strongholds and whether Republican turnout is (relatively) good in the more populated areas (rather than their strongholds as such, if that makes sense). And also to see if there are any signs of funny surges of enthusiasm. You can then edit this for candidates. Tomblin will need relatively good (for a comedy turnout election) turnout in the southern coalfield counties, for example, because that's where he's known.

Here's a Google Doc I made hopefully containing the information you want. It compares the early voting turnouts of 2010 and this election. Also includes breakdowns by party.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvZfL1pKJ0bKdHE3MDM5OVFRV0hrUnpSRVFFWlRHQ3c&hl=en_US#gid=0
Don't know enough about the state to read too much into the data, but maybe someone more knowledgeable can make sense of it all.

[Niemeyerite]

I say 51-46% Tomblin

[Sam Spade]

I sort of wish I'd been following this, but you have to make priorities about such things sometimes (sigh). Look forward to the maps anyway.

Oh, and wrt to any early vote statistics, there are certain patterns to look for in WV and they can sometimes be quite useful for predictive purposes.

And what pray tell are the patterns?  Which counties correlate with each other? Or is this a Sam Spade thingy? 

You basically need to see how solid Democratic turnout is in their various strongholds and whether Republican turnout is (relatively) good in the more populated areas (rather than their strongholds as such, if that makes sense). And also to see if there are any signs of funny surges of enthusiasm. You can then edit this for candidates. Tomblin will need relatively good (for a comedy turnout election) turnout in the southern coalfield counties, for example, because that's where he's known.

Dem coalfield turnout in the early voting was quite good.  More populated areas was so-so.

Btw, Dems say that this race is between 4-6 points.  GOP says 1-3 points and closing.  My guess is like 51-46, 51-47, 52-47 or 52-46, or something like that because of the early voting numbers.  But who knows.