2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV

[Tender Branson]

I think DuPree wins the primary with 54%.

And then he loses to Phil Bryant by 62-37.

[Tender Branson]

I haven't found any primary polls, so it's almost impossible to have any basis to make predictions, but the "insiders" think it's possible at least that Bryant will come at just under 50% Tuesday and have to go to a runoff with Dave Dennis, where all bets are off.

On the Democratic side, I'm predicting Johnny DuPree wins by double digits, but with African-American turnout always being a huge question mark, a Luckett win wouldn't shock me.  Again, there's no real polls that I know of to base it on.  Honestly, the Republican blog Majority in Mississippi has been the best news source on the Democratic Primary race, sadly.

I think Bryant wins the GOP primary with 67% of the vote.

[Tender Branson]

For which Democrat are you voting, Harry ?

[Tender Branson]

DEM Primary (96% in):

DuPree, Johnny           Dem      159,745      43% - Runoff
Luckett, Bill                  Dem      146,220      40% - Runoff
Compton, William        Dem         35,864      10%
Shaw, Guy                   Dem        27,166        7%

GOP Primary (94% in):

Bryant, Phil                  GOP       163,071      59%
Dennis, Dave               GOP         71,486      26%
Williams, Ron               GOP         24,563        9%
Holliday, Hudson          GOP         12,908       5%
Broadwater, James      GOP           3,412       1%

So, who do you think will win the DEM run-off ?

I thought there were only DuPree and Luckett in the race ...

[Tender Branson]

When is this run-off happening btw ?

[Tender Branson]

I'm going to predict a 54-46 DuPree win

I'm on fire

I also predicted a 54-46 DuPree win.

BTW: Does anyone know if he's the first Black gubernatorial nominee of any MS party or have there been African-Amiercan nominees before ?

[Tender Branson]

Do you think we'll ever get a poll out of MS again ?

How many polls were there in the 2007 election ? One from a shady outfit ?

[Tender Branson]

The predicted outcome of this election won't be too hard:

Whites (64%): Bryant 90%, DuPree 9%, Others 1%
Blacks (32%): DuPree 95%, Bryant 4%, Others 1%
Others (4%): DuPree 65%, Bryant 34%, Others 1%

Total: 60.2% Bryant, 38.8% DuPree, 1.0% Others

+/- 3%

[Tender Branson]

I thought blacks were around 38% of Mississippi's population.

Yeah, but their turnout is always lower than that of the Whites, so they make up only 30-34% in the end.

[Tender Branson]

Do you think African-American turnout will be noticeably higher than 2003 or 2007?

What was African American turnout in 2003 or 2007 ?

I don`t think there were any exit polls, right ?

Or does the MS Secretary of State keep track of turnout by race ?

[Tender Branson]

The guys from PPP seemed to have smoked something in the past month.

First the close NV poll when everything is pointing in the opposite direction and now this, when every poll has Tomblin with high approvals and 15-point leads.

[Tender Branson]

Early voting in West Virginia so far is:

59% Democratic
33% Republican

http://www.sos.wv.gov/news/topics/elections-candidates/Pages/ClickHereToSeeDailyUpdatedEarlyVotingand.aspx

[Tender Branson]

BTW, early voting in the 2010 election was:

54% Democratic
36% Republican

http://www.sos.wv.gov/news/topics/elections-candidates/Pages/ClickheretoseedailyupdatedEarlyVotingandAbsenteeBallotNumbers.aspx

[Tender Branson]

With this week still to go, Democrats remain ahead by 58-34 in WV early voting.

[Tender Branson]

Back to 59-33 today.

If it stays that way, Tomblin would already get around 47% only from Democrats alone ...

[Tender Branson]

Still about 58-34 today. 3 days of early voting remain. I'll post the final numbers on Monday.

[Tender Branson]

More than 40.000 early votes are now in, Democrats remain ahead by 57% to 34%.

2 days are still remaining and final early turnout could be between 50.000 and 60.000

What turnout can we expect alltogether ? About 300.000-400.000 ?

[Tender Branson]

What were the early vote totals last year?

PPP will be doing a final poll of WV this weekend.

BTW, early voting in the 2010 election was:

54% Democratic
36% Republican

http://www.sos.wv.gov/news/topics/elections-candidates/Pages/ClickheretoseedailyupdatedEarlyVotingandAbsenteeBallotNumbers.aspx

[Tender Branson]

I think a 56-43 Tomblin win looks realistic now.

Let's see what PPP says.

[Tender Branson]

PPP twitters that their upcoming poll will show a "competetive race" ...

Hard to imagine with these early voting numbers, but let's see. After all, the polls last year also heavily underestimated the Democrat in WV.

[Tender Branson]

I´m a bit sceptical of this poll. I now predict a 54.3-44.8 win for Tomblin.

D (55%): Tomblin 80% - 44.0%
R (35%): Tomblin 15% - 5.3%
I (10%): Tomblin 50% - 5.0%
............................................
Total: Tomblin 54.3%

[Tender Branson]

I think the third parties will get at least 2% combined. If I had to predict I'd say something like 50-48-2.

That's correct. I`ve just looked up the WV results from previous years.

Therefore I predict a 53.2 to 44.6 win for Tomblin now.

[Tender Branson]

I´m a bit sceptical of this poll. I now predict a 54.3-44.8 win for Tomblin.

D (55%): Tomblin 80% - 44.0%
R (35%): Tomblin 15% - 5.3%
I (10%): Tomblin 50% - 5.0%
............................................
Total: Tomblin 54.3%

Why are you shaving the numbers down from the poll?  Just curious. And why are you assuming the same day vote will replicate the early vote in registration percentages?

It's what PPP used (55-35-10).

As for the Democratic percentage Maloney will get: I don't see him getting twice the share that Raese got last year. And there's a good chunk of Independents undecided, I guess there's a split.

[Tender Branson]

I sort of wish I'd been following this, but you have to make priorities about such things sometimes (sigh). Look forward to the maps anyway.

Oh, and wrt to any early vote statistics, there are certain patterns to look for in WV and they can sometimes be quite useful for predictive purposes.

And what pray tell are the patterns?  Which counties correlate with each other? Or is this a Sam Spade thingy? 

You basically need to see how solid Democratic turnout is in their various strongholds and whether Republican turnout is (relatively) good in the more populated areas (rather than their strongholds as such, if that makes sense). And also to see if there are any signs of funny surges of enthusiasm. You can then edit this for candidates. Tomblin will need relatively good (for a comedy turnout election) turnout in the southern coalfield counties, for example, because that's where he's known.

Dem coalfield turnout in the early voting was quite good.  More populated areas was so-so.

Btw, Dems say that this race is between 4-6 points.  GOP says 1-3 points and closing.  My guess is like 51-46, 51-47, 52-47 or 52-46, or something like that because of the early voting numbers.  But who knows.

Yeah, I will slightly correct my prediction and say:

52.4% Tomblin
44.9% Maloney
  2.7% Others

There are 3 Indies and history has shown that Indies are doing quite well in WV.

[Tender Branson]

When are the polls closing again in WV ?

2am ?