2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV

[JohnnyLongtorso]

You forgot WV!

I made separate threads for KY and WV long ago but the races are so lacking in news that it's rather pointless. I think each thread has maybe three or four pages of posts. And to think those are the hot 2011 gubernatorial elections. LA and MS are complete snorefests.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's the AP link. Damn, they're slow.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Checking back in... DuPree's dropped below 50%, while Bryant has jumped up to 58%. Bryant's probably clear of the runoff zone; Dennis has only managed to win two counties (Hancock and Harrison), and despite the charmingly parochial voting patterns present in the Deep South that can upend things quickly, I don't think he has a shot. I have no idea what's left on the Democratic side, but odds are DuPree ends up in a runoff with Luckett.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So, what happened to the three Senate Democrats who switched parties in the past year?

- Cindy Hyde-Smith won the Republican primary for Agriculture Commissioner.
- Nolan Mettetal dropped down to the House (HD-10, an open Dem seat) and won the Republican primary.
- Ezell Lee lost the Republican primary for his Senate seat.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a map of the Dem primary. The Republican primary map wouldn't be very interesting, as Bryant won all but three counties.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Seriously?

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[JohnnyLongtorso]

Gatewood Galbraith is officially on the ballot in Kentucky.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Runoff results, if anyone cares.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

DuPree is up 58-42 so far. About 20% in.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

DuPree wins. Currently at 56-44 with about 80% in.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Primary and runoff maps to compare:



The grey county in the latter map was tied.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There probably won't be any more polls of MS. That's the problem with having off-off-year elections; if they're not going to be competitive, nobody cares whatsoever. Even the noncompetitive ones during midterms got polled a few times.

Of course, Louisiana is even worse; since the Democrats still don't have a candidate (this woman doesn't count), there are zero public polls of the state.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A couple previews of PPP's Kentucky polling on Twitter:

"Libertarian candidate for State Treasurer in Kentucky polling at 16%- that says something about voter disgust right now."

"There's evidence within our Kentucky poll that Republican voters may stay home because of their weak Gov candidate. Helps down ballot Dems"

"Independents in Kentucky: Beshear leads Williams by 26, Romney leads Obama by 25."

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Have there been any public polls of WV since the last time PPP looked at it?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Rumor has it that former Congressman Cleo Fields is going to jump into the Louisiana gubernatorial election tomorrow (when the filing deadline is). He'd certainly be a better candidate than that Tara Hollis woman, but the map would still end up looking like this:



Democrats currently don't have a single candidate for any of the other statewide offices up in Louisiana. I think that Caroline Fayard woman is going to be a Secretary of State candidate, but I haven't heard of any others.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Well, that rumor turned out false. Jindal drew a bunch of nobody challengers, Caroline Fayard opted out of the Secretary of State race, and Democrats only filed in two of the six downballot statewide races.

In the State Senate, 22 seats have only Republicans running, 8 seats have only Democrats running, and 9 seats have both a Republican and a Democrat in the race. The Senate is currently 22-17 Republican.

The House has 46 seats with only Republicans running (well, 45, plus one incumbent independent who has a Republican challenger), 31 seats have only Democrats running, and 28 seats have both a Republican and a Democrat in the race. The House is currently 54-46 Republican with 4 independents (two are retiring, one is running as a Republican) and one vacant seat.

Hooray for competition...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Scalise would be a pretty poor candidate, but I'm not sure if Landrieu could survive even a poor opponent at this point, given how severely the state has shifted to the Republicans in the past few years.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Joseph Cao's Attorney General bid was short-lived; he's dropped out already.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

With less than two weeks to go, it looks like West Virginia may be the one competitive race this year. Both the RGA and DGA are pumping money into the race.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It also doesn't tell us much because Maloney's going to need to win at least a quarter of Democrats to win the election, so who knows if they're voting for him or not.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There's a Mountain (aka Green) Party candidate, an independent, and a guy running on something called American Third Position.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

What were the early vote totals last year?

PPP will be doing a final poll of WV this weekend.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I was more interested in the totals, but that link gives them (~108,000), so I'm going to guess turnout will be between 300,000 and 350,000.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

50-48 Tomblin is my guess.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Fundraising numbers from Kentucky. Democrats have huge money leads for Governor, AG, Secretary of State, and Auditor. Treasurer is about even, and the Republican has a huge money lead for Agriculture Commissioner.