2011 Governor's Races in LA, MS, KY and WV

[Meeker]

There was another thread on this but it was for some reason locked.

Anyways, the Mississppi primary is next Tuesday.

[Meeker]

You forgot WV!

I made separate threads for KY and WV long ago but the races are so lacking in news that it's rather pointless. I think each thread has maybe three or four pages of posts. And to think those are the hot 2011 gubernatorial elections. LA and MS are complete snorefests.

Oops - you're right. Added WV.

I feel there's an outside chance of an upset in WV but it's kind of difficult to tell when there's absolutely no news about it anywhere.

Democrats also managed to get a "candidate" in Louisiana - this chick - but probably more appealing is the potential candidacy of State Senator Rob Marionneaux. He will still lose of course.

[Meeker]

The two Democrats running in Mississippi are actually pretty decent candidates. Of course they'll still lose because it's Mississippi and Barack Obama is the President but it's nice to see us giving it a go.

www.luckettforgovernor.com
www.johnnydupree.com

A tad unclear who will win the primary - Luckett has raised more money but DuPree seems to be getting more newspaper endorsements and is black.

[Meeker]

AP called it for Bryant and a runoff on the Dem side... DuPree currently leads 45-38 but I think there's some Luckett-friendly areas in the Northern part of the state still to come in so that may drop.

Tate Reeves won the Lt. Governor primary and faces no opposition in the general election, so expect him to be elected Governor in 2019.

[Meeker]

When is this run-off happening btw ?

August 23rd. Given the closeness of the candidates in this round, the race's low-profile and the unpredictable voter turnouts associated with runoff elections, I don't think anyone can say with certainty who will win.

[Meeker]

Awesome.

[Meeker]

I thought "in modern times" was another way of saying "since Reconstruction".

[Meeker]

You don't really need a poll in Mississippi. The Democrat will finish in the upper 30's or low 40's and the Republican in the upper 50's or low 60's.

[Meeker]

Do you think African-American turnout will be noticeably higher than 2003 or 2007?

[Meeker]

Mississippi keeps records of voter registration by race and they keep voting records. So it could be accessed somehow. Might not be online though.

[Meeker]

The Louisiana Democratic Party might as well not even exist. The two Democrats who did file for statewide races weren't recruited by the party; they're just random people who decided to run for office as a Democrat.

Absolutely pathetic.

[Meeker]

Based upon the reliable Meeker standard of "the-feeling-I-got-from-phonebanking-and-doorknocking-this-weekend" I think we'll be fine.

[Meeker]

Poll says 47 Tomblin, 46 Maloney. Maloney pulling in 24% of Democrats. Obama approval at 28%.

Nailbitter.

[Meeker]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/WV_Governor_1004.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Meeker]

The final early vote total was 56,638 (57% D, 35% R, 8% I).

[Meeker]

I think the third parties will get at least 2% combined. If I had to predict I'd say something like 50-48-2.

ETA: To put things in perspective, the two third party candidates in 2010 got 3.13% of the vote. This time around there's three of them.

[Meeker]

Keep in mind that if Tomblin loses tomorrow he's still President of the State Senate. I'm sure he and Governor Maloney would get along swell.

[Meeker]

So all the Democrats are predicting a Tomblin victory and all the Republicans a Maloney victory. Shocking.

[Meeker]

The Democratic candidate for Ag Commissioner in Kentucky is some humor writer; he's not a serious candidate.

I think it's possible for Democrats to win every statewide office besides that one though. SoS will probably be the closest one.

[Meeker]

Galbraith actually beat Williams in a few counties.