What percentage of voters who voted for Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2008 will vote for Obama in 2012 do you think? Just asking. I actually know someone who did that. 
Good question. Some of that cross-section of voters were probably conservative Democrats who were worried about security in 2004 and then swung back in 2008. Obviously, some of that population must have been self-identified independents, with some shape of a default persuasion, too. Probably most of the first group of conservative Dems will stick with Obama in 2012. But, since the economy and not security will be the most important issue next year, I'd venture a guess that, as long as the GOP nominee isn't a nutter, maybe somewhere around a half of the independents in this group will either vote for the GOP nominee or sit the election out. The independents in this cross-section are a bigger group, so their votes or abstentions will have more of an impact.
Actually my theory is that the cohort are mostly well do to RINO's. Thus my CD had one of the strongest trends to Obama in the nation, by about 10% or double the national average. CA-48 went 59% for Bush 2004, 49% for McCain, and 59% for Meg Whitman. I was one of those voters.
