Election Night 2016

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BRIAN WILLIAMS: Hello and welcome to NBC's coverage of tonight's presidential election, along with the 435 House seats and 34 senate seats up for grabs. We're right now seeing a very similar situation to 2012; an unpopular incumbent president, presiding over a stagnant economy. Still, we have also seen President Romney campaigning vigorously nationwide in search of an upset. But will Governor Feingold unseat him? We'll find out tonight.




Next post will show a recap of President Romney's first (only?) term.

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In the 2012 elections, President Barack Obama was narrowly unseated by former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, owing to sluggish economic growth and voter anger at both parties' establishments.

Romney/Jindal-282
Obama/Biden-256

In the Senate elections, Republicans took open seats in North Dakota and Virginia while defeating incumbent senators in Nebraska and Montana, while Democrats picked up a Senate seat in Nevada. Including one independent who caucused with the Republicans (Olympia Snowe), the GOP had a total of 50 seats, which combined with the Vice President gave them control of the Senate. In the House, Democrats gained some seats (going up to 207), but failed to retake the House. The most notable gubernatorial election was the Wisconsin recall, in which former Senator Russ Feingold defeated incumbent governor Scott Walker.


President Romney's Cabinet:

Vice President: Piyush "Bobby" Jindal
Secretary of State: Dick Lugar
Secretary of the Treasury: Carly Fiorina
Secretary of Defense: Lindsey Graham
Attorney General: Fred Thompson
Secretary of the Interior: Sean Parnell
Secretary of Agriculture: Ben Nelson
Secretary of Commerce: Meg Whitman
Secretary of Labor: Scott Walker
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Mike Huckabee
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Steve Preston
Secretary of Transportation: Ray LaHood
Secretary of Energy: Mark Parkinson
Secretary of Education: Michelle Rhee
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Elizabeth Dole
Secretary of Homeland Security: Rudy Giuliani

Also, thank you for the feedback.

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THE FIRST TWO YEARS

The immediate effect of Romney's election was a slight bump in the market, possibly a positive reaction to a new president. Despite this, the new president's first major action was not an economic bill, but instead the repeal of "Obamacare", and a renewed fight for a different bill with greater free market influence.

"I support the President's move as a step towards affordable health care coverage based around the free market and states' rights to create their own health care plans." -Speaker John Boehner

"In these tough economic times, health care isn't the top issue. We need to focus on job creation to bolster our economy."-Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid

Like the Obama health care plan, Romney faced criticism from both the left and the right, with many conservatives alleging that this was still a liberal plan. They weren't quite off base--Romney's plan took most of its substance from "Obamacare" itself, only repealing the individual mandate and adding elements more palatable to fiscal conservatives. Despite this, the much-publicized health care struggle was a drag on Romney's approval ratings.

Foreign policy was somewhat more successful for the president. Obama had left Libya by late 2011, but by 2014 the majority of troops had left both Iraq and Afghanistan. The relative success in both nations was seen as Obama's last laugh.

The other main note was that, like Obama, Romney became increasingly unpopular with the Republican base. One major element was Romney's signing of an extension to unemployment benefits, and, despite not raising taxes, failing to permanently extend the Bush tax cuts.

The 2014 midterms, like 2010, resulted in a shellacking for the incumbents. Due to the fact that 2014 already consisted mostly of Democratic senators, however, gains were limited. Still, the Democrats retook both houses of Congress.

GA: John Barrow (D) defeats Saxby Chambliss (R)
KY: Jack Conway (D) defeats Mitch McConnell (R)
OK: Brad Henry (D) defeats James Inhofe (R)
SC: Vincent Sheheen (D) defeats Joe Wilson (R)

D: 54
R: 46

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Brad Henry was an extreme; a very popular governor running against a senator who has a lot of things you can criticize about him, all while running a Manchin-style campaign attacking both parties. Remember that Oklahoma is still a somewhat Democratic state on the non-federal level.

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That seems even less plausible.

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Oh, he was elected Governor.

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By July 2015, many wondered if Romney's career had ended in one fell swoop. Though not as serious as the 2008 economic crash, it seemed as if the slow but steady recovery had been replaced with what had been feared for 7 years--a double-dip recession. Romney's actions were immediate. The president immediately announced an economic bill, intended to stimulate job growth. The proposed legislation would, among other things, lower the corporate tax rate to 25%, as well as create few New Deal-style projects to build a high-speed rail network.

President Romney's main opposition to the bill was from the Tea Party. Michele Bachmann, Romney's rival in the 2012 primaries and leader of the Tea Party Caucus, called the bill "a stimulus in disguise". Kentucky senator Rand Paul praised the bill's tax cuts, but condemned the
infrastructure programs as "something we'd expect from Obama." He also claimed "a very important announcement" within the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, the Democratic primaries were heating up. The main contenders were Maryland governor Martin O'Malley, with appeal based on his record on crime and his cleanup of Baltimore as mayor, New York governor Andrew Cuomo, running a socially liberal, fiscally centrist, and anti-corruption campaign, and Wisconsin governor Russ Feingold, with a pro-labor campaign with extra emphasis on campaign finance reform.

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Majority Leader is Harry Reid, Minority Leader is John Cornyn.

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I saw a couple others, including an excellent one by RogueBeaver.

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"Though some might call me crazy, or they might say that I'm harming the party, I feel as if I have no choice but to run. The centrists in Washington care about their own re-election. I care about bringing back constitutional values to our nation."

At the footsteps of the Jefferson Memorial, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul announced his intentions to seek the presidency, challenging President Romney. Much like his father Ron, Rand had gained quite an internet following and was popular with the Tea Party wing of the GOP. However, his reception among the Tea Party was mixed. Though some welcomed a more conservative challenger, others, like Michele Bachmann, stated that the risk of allowing a Democratic president was simply too high to afford a challenge, and that Romney needed the Republicans' full support.

Meanwhile, the Democratic primary was heating up. Polling showed a dead heat between progressive Russ Feingold and New Democrat Andrew Cuomo, with Martin O'Malley close behind. Other candidates included West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill, and Illinois congressman Jesse Jackson Jr.

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Poll up.

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THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES

The GOP primaries were never truly in doubt, despite the base's dissatisfaction with President Romney. After losing all the early states (his best showings were 35% in Nevada and 31% in South Carolina), Rand Paul dropped out, though notably refused to endorse Governor Romney. Despite being weakened by the Senator's insurgent campaign, Romney hoped to spin the campaign into a strength, showing him as moderate compared to the far right Paul. Paul later ran for re-election to the Senate, winning unopposed in the state primary. He vowed to continue his conservative crusade from the Senate, opposing "anti-constitutional" policies of Presidents Romney and Obama, reserving extra criticism for Romney for keeping many of the 44th President's policies. Unlike the wash that was the Republican primary, the Democratic primaries seemed much more hectic, with no clear frontrunner.

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THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES-PART 1

Unsurprisingly, the first victory of the Democratic primaries went to Russ Feingold, who easily won the Iowa Caucus with O'Malley in second and McCaskill in third; Cuomo effectively skipped the state to focus on other early states. That strategy rewarded him with New Hampshire, with voters there admiring his socially liberal record; in 2011 he pushed through a bill that made New York the sixth state to legalize same-sex marriage. By 2016, the states of Illinois, Colorado, and New Jersey had also allowed same-sex couples to marry.

South Carolina was a contest between Cuomo and O'Malley, with both pursuing the black vote. Eventually, O'Malley's record on urban redevelopment and crime gave him a boost among Democrats in Columbia and Charleston, and with it his first primary victory. On the same day, the Nevada caucuses were held, and Cuomo won the state easily.

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THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES-PART 2

Super Tuesday brought a wave of states for all three candidates. O'Malley performed the poorest, only winning Maryland, Delaware, D.C, Virginia, and Georgia. Meanwhile, Cuomo won in Connecticut, his home state of New York, Alabama, Florida, Arizona, Arkansas, New Mexico, and Colorado, bringing a New Democratic coalition of socially liberal Westerners, blacks, and Hispanics. Feingold, on the other hand, was boosted by progressives and organized labor, winning out in Michigan, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Missouri, West Virginia, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kansas, and California; however, the latter victory was an almost even split of delegates between him and Cuomo. In that state, Feingold focused on the Bay area and the Central Valley, while Cuomo's base was in SoCal.

If you prefer just a map:

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I suck at delegate stuff, but I'll try. Don't expect it soon, though.

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I'll do my research, but I'll keep you in mind.

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THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES-PART 3

After Super Tuesday, the race seemed to be between Governors Feingold and Cuomo. Each took home victories, with Cuomo's strength in the Deep South and the West while Feingold's campaign centered in the Midwest. The final major confrontation came in the Pennsylvania primary. Feingold campaigned for support from the blue-collar workers in Pittsburgh, Allentown, and Scranton, while Cuomo built his campaign in the Philly suburbs (as well as the city itself). Eventually, however, Feingold's Rustbelt appeal combined with a slightly more conservative position on guns gave him victory in the state. Though the Cuomo campaign continued, it clearly was winding down, only winning the Oregon primary after its loss in Pennsylvania.

Governor Russ Feingold of Wisconsin was the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party, and now it was time to attack Romney. However, Governor Feingold still needed a running mate, and had decided on a shortlist:

*Governor Edward M. Kennedy Jr. of Connecticut-Ideologically similar to Feingold, and with a very powerful last name. However, the ticket would not be balanced.
*Senator Vincent Sheheen of South Carolina-A young, moderate Southerner, but he had done little in the Senate thus far.
*Senator Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexico-A young, charismatic figure, not only with a strong record but from a potentially competitive state. However, from an ideological standpoint he faces the same problems as Kennedy.
*Governor Martin O'Malley of Maryland-A former rival in the primaries, O'Malley could help with his record on urban redevelopment, but Feingold felt that he may not be enough for the ticket.

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THE CAMPAIGN-PART 1

"I am proud to announce my choice to be the next Vice President of the United States. Senator Lujan has a proven record in representing his constituents in New Mexico, and making his voice heard in Washington."


Hoping to appeal to the Hispanic vote, as well as to provide a younger star as a possible heir, Feingold chose Senator Ben R. Lujan of New Mexico (2015-present) as his running mate. The Romney campaign of course already had Jindal, and many were excited about the vice presidential debates, featuring two young, fiery minorities, contrasting the elders dueling in the presidential debates.

The Democratic National Convention was held from August 26th to 28th, 2016, in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Headed by keynote speaker Gavin Newsom, governor of California, he emphasized his and Jerry Brown's record in improving California's heavy deficit and higher than average unemployment rates; California had once again become one of the fastest growing states in the country.

The third day opened with a deafening round of applause, as former President Barack Obama gave a speech, criticizing President Romney's policies and "failure to deliver on the promise he used to defeat me". After an on-stage appearance with his wife Michelle, who was running for Senate against incumbent Mark Kirk, he introduced the main speaker, Governor Feingold. Now on stage, Feingold began by praising the former president, before delivering his message, the most watched in convention history. Feingold outlined a return to New Deal policies to improve the economy, finishing the job Obama started on health care, and cutting government spending and pork while protecting entitlements and ending the Bush-era tax cuts on the top 2% of earners.

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THE CAMPAIGN-PART 2

Meanwhile, the Republican Convention was held a week later in Phoenix, Arizona. The keynote speaker was Marco Rubio of Florida, who focused his speech on uniting the conservative base back with Romney. As a figure popular with the Tea Party, this was considered a perfect role for the young Senator, who was also up for re-election that year. On the second day, Vice President Jindal spoke, touting the administration's success, and like any attack dog, chewing into Feingold's "radically misguided" policies.

After an appearance from First Lady Ann Romney, the President appeared. At 69 years old but looking younger, the old warrior knew that he would have to fight for this election, just as he did in 2012. While emphasizing the struggles with the economic recovery, he remained surprisingly optimistic in his speech, focusing more on feel-good words of confidence than attacks on the Democratic party; he had left that to Jindal for a reason.

In September, the first of three debates (two presidential, one vice-presidential) were held, this one focused entirely on the economy. As opposed to the 2008 or 2012 debates, neither Romney nor Feingold were particularly charismatic, and therefore there was somewhat of a perceived tie; neither succeeded with a knockout blow. Feingold built his defense around a repeat of several New Deal-style policies while promising a return to stronger industry. Meanwhile, Romney continued to preach economic conservatism, while alleging that Governor Feingold's policies would only worsen the problem with government spending.

Polling as of October 1st, 2016:

Romney: 47%
Feingold: 46%

Map as of October 1st:

Feingold: 217
Romney: 201
Toss-up: 120

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THE CAMPAIGN-PART 3

The vice presidential debate had high expectations--two younger, charismatic figures representing opposite sides of the spectrum, and each popular with their respective bases. Those expectations were delivered, though not necessarily in a positive way. With both exchanging attacks throughout the debate, many felt that the debate had become too negative, and after the debate many pundits openly condemned both figures. However, the debate results did relatively little to hurt the favorable numbers of either candidate.

The final presidential debate between Romney and Feingold would, like the first, center around the economy but also devote about half the time to various other issues. Eventually, the question came to the issue most important to Governor Feingold--campaign finance reform. As Romney gave his explanation of the importance of "allowing fuller participation in campaigns, and not limiting one's right to support a candidate", the governor had already prepared his comeback.

"The fact is that you are equating money as speech and corporations as persons. When the First Amendment was written, the Founding Fathers never thought about a giant corporation donating millions to a campaign, effectively nullifying money from popular support and putting politicians as servants, not to the people but to these mega-rich corporations. The fact is, that without campaign finance reform, something I have fought for throughout my career, elections will be decided by GE and Wal-Mart, not by the voters. For the sake of democracy, we cannot let non-human entities gain this sort of power. Thank you."

The rampage at the end of the debate, combined with a Feingold campaign seemingly gaining traction every day, seemed to be the end for the president. In late October, his numbers began to drop, with some polls putting him down by up to 9 points.

Nationwide polling as of October 30th, 2016:

Feingold 51%
Romney 44%

State polling averages as of October 30th, 2016:

OCTOBER 2016 JOB REPORTS: 120,000 NEW JOBS CREATED, UNEMPLOYMENT DROPS TO 8.1%

"It's taken a while, but I think we have a winner."-President Romney to advisors

"The fact that it's taken 4 long years to even begin a real economic recovery really says something about this presidency. The fact is that with so many Americans out of work, and with millions more with jobs but still struggling, we need real change in Washington."-Governor Feingold, at a final campaign stop in Cedar Rapids, Iowa

Final Polling Average (November 8th, 2016):

Feingold: 48%
Romney: 45%

After all these months of sleepless nights and multiple campaign stops, it was finally over for the President. Whether he won or lost, Romney could finally rest to watch the returns with Ann from the White House.

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BRIAN WILLIAMS: It is 7:00 here in New York and polls are closed in 6 states-Vermont, Kentucky, Indiana, Georgia, South Carolina, and Virginia. We do have some projections from those states.

In Georgia, a usually Republican state with 16 electoral votes, the race there is right now too close to call. It hasn't gone for a Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992, and although it's expected to vote for Romney we cannot officially make that projection yet.

Indiana, 11 electoral votes, too close to call. A Republican winning streak held since 1968 was broken when it voted for Obama in 2008, only to go back to the Republicans in 2012. Like in Georgia, Romney was ahead in polling. In that race, we can also project that governor Mike Pence and Senator Dan Coats, both Republicans, have won re-election.

We do have a projection in Kentucky, where 8 electoral votes will go to the President tonight. Not a shocker, it's a generally Republican state which Democrats haven't won since the Clinton era. However, Kentucky is a lot more Democratic outside of presidential elections, and Senator Rand Paul, who unsuccessfully challenged Romney for the Republican nomination, is locked in a tight race with former Lieutenant governor Dan Mongiardo, and that race is too close to call.

South Carolina's 9 electoral votes will also go to President Romney tonight. Another state which tends to vote Republican, and it will also elect a Republican, Mick Mulvaney, to the Senate tonight to replace retiring Republican Jim DeMint.

The other state we can project is the state of Vermont, where Governor Feingold will get his first three electoral votes. Once among the most Republican states in the Union, today Vermont has become a Democratic stronghold. In addition, Governor Peter Shumlin will win re-election, and Tim Ashe will succeed retiring Democrat Patrick Leahy. Ashe is a member not of the Democratic Party, but of Vermont's Progressive Party. However, he ran with support from the Democrats and will caucus with them when he goes to Washington.

Finally, we go to Virginia, where 13 electoral votes are too close to call. The state voted for Obama in 2008 and Romney in 2012, and this year is considered one of the key swing states. No projection yet, but we'll be keeping an eye out.

Romney: 17
Feingold: 3

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It's 7:30 right now, and two more states have had their polls close, the states of Ohio and West Virginia. At this point, we cannot make projections in the presidential races of either of those states. Now, Ohio could easily be the deciding state in this race, and few others have been fought over violently. It's 18 electoral votes that can easily make the difference. The senate race between Republican Rob Portman and Congresswoman Betty Sutton. West Virginia is leaning towards President Romney, but the state's 5 electoral votes are a bit closer than they have been in some other recent elections. Feingold made an effort in the state, and he's hoping that his appeal with labor can at least put pressure on Romney. Like Kentucky, it's a Democratic state that votes for Republicans in presidential elections.

7:48: Hold on, we can make a presidential projection. Georgia's 16 electoral votes will go to President Romney tonight. Not a big surprise, and that brings the count to Romney 33, Feingold 3. Remember that if the polls are still open where you live, get to your station as fast as you can and help make your voice heard if you haven't already. More states will be closing in just a few minutes, and hopefully we can get some numbers when they're ready.

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I'd like a bit of feedback.

It's 8:00 now, and polls have closed in a huge clump of states, including some to watch tonight. We begin with Alabama. It's a solid Republican state with 9 electoral votes that's expected to go for President Feingold tonight, but it's usually slow to report and we can't yet make an official projection.

In Connecticut, 7 electoral votes will be going to Feingold. It's not a surprise, since the state is very Democratic and since governor Ted Kennedy Jr. was an early supporter of Feingold.

Delaware's 3 electoral votes will also go to Feingold. It used to be a bellwether state, and from 1960 to 2000 it voted for every winner of every presidential election. However, in recent years it's gone Democratic, and Feingold is projected to have an easy win in the First State.

No shock in the District of Columbia, where 3 electoral votes go for Governor Feingold. It's the ultimate Democratic stronghold, and it looks like Feingold will win over 90% of the vote in the district.

Now here's a big state to watch. Florida, with 29 electoral votes, is a vital state in this race and it could keep us up all night. Feingold and Romney have both campaigned hard here, and Romney has appealed to upper-middle class suburbs near Orlando while Feingold is gathering support from the elderly who are afraid of potential cuts to Medicare and Social Security.

Illinois, home state of former president Barack Obama, will be yet another state to add to the Governor's column. 20 electoral votes, a strong Democratic state. Interestingly enough, what we've seen from some early returns in the state is that some of the Chicago suburbs have swung towards President Romney. It's speculation, but it likely has to do with Obama not being on the ticket. However, there is an Obama, former First Lady Michelle Obama, who is running for Senate in a very close race with incumbent Mark Kirk.

An interesting situation in Maine, where we can project 3 of the state's 4 electoral votes to Feingold. Maine is the only state that splits its electoral votes, but Nebraska did it until before the 2012 elections. Essentially, you get 2 electoral votes for winning the state overall, as Feingold has done. But the other two come from winning the state's two congressional districts. Governor Feingold has won at least one of those two.

Maryland will also be voting for Governor Feingold tonight. Due especially to both Baltimore and the DC suburbs, it's a heavily Democratic state, and it's 10 pretty safe electoral votes for the Governor.

The rest are coming later.

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Anyone here? Wouldn't like to be the only poster on this page!

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Here's a tough blow for the President, but not unexpected. His home state of Massachusetts, worth 10 electoral votes, will be voting for Governor Feingold. It's not an upset, since the state is very Democratic.

Mississippi, like Alabama, is too early to call. Just like Alabama, Romney is expected to win, but the state is slow to release its results, and we can't give him those 6 electoral votes just yet. Mississipi is considered a bit more Democratic than Alabama due to a higher African-American population, but it's still definitely a Republican state.

Missouri, the Show-Me state, is too close to call. Until 2008, it voted with the winner of every election, but in 2008 narrowly voted for Senator McCain. Romney won it in 2012, and this year it's once again considered a battleground state. Expect this state to take a while to project.

Another major swing state is New Hampshire. It generally leans Democratic, but Romney has close ties with the state, and narrowly beat Obama there in 2012. It's small-4 electoral votes-but it could make the difference in a tight race.

New Jersey is too early to call. Feingold was leading here, and is expected to win the state with some help from a couple campaign stops with Governor Cory Booker. However, it's just close enough that we're going to avoid projecting its 14 electoral votes too early for the Governor.

The first 8:00 projection for President Romney is from the state of Oklahoma. Although they just recently elected a Democrat, former Governor Brad Henry, to the Senate, it's a very Republican state, and those 7 electoral votes were never really in doubt for the President.

Pennsylvania's another big one to keep an eye on. Some have called it fool's gold--the Republicans always make a big effort in the state, but they haven't won it since George Bush Sr's landslide victory in 1988. 20 major electoral votes that both sides are still hoping to win, and it's too close to call at this hour.

The final state to close at 8:00 is Tennessee. It voted for Clinton twice, but it's voted Republican ever since, and it looks like that streak will continue. 11 electoral votes for the President.

Romney: 51
Feingold: 60